Here are 12 storylines to watch this offseason

Here are 12 storylines to watch this offseason

November 3rd, 2023

Now that a bow has been wrapped on the 2023 postseason, all 30 front offices are already looking ahead to 2024, trying to figure out which moves must be made to put themselves in position to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy this time next year.

Next week, the game’s top decision-makers will gather in Arizona for the General Managers Meetings, officially kicking off the 2023-24 Hot Stove season. Here’s a look at 12 storylines that we’ll be talking about this offseason:

1. Where will Shohei sign?
Nothing will dominate the headlines in the coming weeks and months like 's free agency, which was complicated slightly by the elbow injury that forced him to undergo the second UCL surgery of his career. Ohtani won’t be able to pitch until 2025, but the presumptive American League Most Valuable Player could probably surpass 's nine-year, $360 million deal if he never throws another pitch. The floor for Ohtani’s contract is widely believed to be 10 years and $500 million, with some creative caveats based on when he returns to the mound. The Dodgers, Mets and Giants are viewed as the favorites to land Ohtani, though a mystery team or two could certainly enter the fray, as well.

• 2023-24 free agents, position by position

2. Foreign free agents will shake things up
Last offseason saw the Mets sign to a five-year, $75 million deal, while the Red Sox gave five years and $90 million. Both players proved their worth during impressive rookie campaigns, which should help this year’s crop of foreign free agents when it comes to their deals. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has won three consecutive Sawamura Awards as Japan’s best pitcher, and he’s expected to command a deal worth more than $200 million this winter.

Left-hander Shōta Imanaga will also garner plenty of interest, as will righty Yariel Rodríguez, a Cuban-born pitcher who has been playing in Japan since 2020. There’s also Jung Hoo Lee, the 2022 KBO League MVP, who is expected to make the jump to the Majors.

• The best Japanese players who may soon join MLB

3. Strength in starting pitching
This year’s free-agent market doesn’t include a star-studded shortstop class like we’ve seen the past two offseasons; in fact, there aren’t many true impact bats available in free agency, period. What is available is quality starting pitching – and plenty of it. Presumptive National League Cy Young Award winner will be on the open market, along with , , , and , while is expected to join them, assuming he exercises his opt-out clause. Add in Japanese pitchers Yamamoto and Imanaga and you have a number of solid starters who can help pitching-needy teams around the league, of which there is no shortage.

4. A class short on bats
Last winter’s free-agent class featured Judge, , , and , giving clubs an opportunity to add an impact player to their everyday lineups. Aside from Ohtani, this year’s roster of hitters isn’t quite as robust, but , , , and are among the hitters who figure to generate interest from multiple teams.

5. Big Apple Circus
The Yankees and Mets had great expectations entering 2023, but things didn’t work out for the two New York clubs. The Yankees suffered quite a few major injuries throughout the season, limping their way to 82 wins. The Mets' promising season went awry early, as their injury issues and Trade Deadline sell-off resulted in a 75-win season. Both teams are expected to be active this offseason, as Yankees GM Brian Cashman and new Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns try to return the two teams to the postseason in 2024.

6. Reset in San Diego?
No, the Padres aren’t expected to tear things down this winter, but changes appear to be on the horizon (and one was made already, with manager Bob Melvin taking the Giants job). With major money committed to , , Bogaerts, and , it’s impossible to see San Diego go into a full rebuild, but Snell and are free agents and will be the biggest name on the trade block this offseason, setting up a pivotal offseason for GM A.J. Preller. The Padres could move Soto – who has one year remaining until free agency – to fill holes on the roster or restock a farm system depleted by recent trades, most notably the one for Soto in 2022.

7. New boss in Boston
The Red Sox made a change at the top of their front office, dismissing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and replacing him with Craig Breslow, who steps into a top decision-making job for the first time in his career. Breslow’s specialty is pitching, which is good news for the Sox, whose rotation finished the season ranked 12th in the AL with a 4.68 ERA. Boston needs to add to its rotation, and with a handful of solid options on the free-agent market, that should be a reasonable goal if the club is willing to spend. But the AL East figures to be tough again in 2024 – every team besides the Sox finished above .500 last season – so Breslow has his work cut out for him this offseason.

8. Time for Baltimore to go big?
The Orioles finally reaped the rewards of their rebuild, stunning the baseball world with an AL-best 101-win season in 2023. AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner became the latest star in Baltimore, joining , , and as the heart of a formidable lineup. finished third in the AL with a 2.83 ERA and rookie posted a 2.58 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break, while and had All-Star seasons in the bullpen. Bautista will miss 2024 following Tommy John surgery, while and midseason acquisition Flaherty are free agents, so GM Mike Elias will look to add to the pitching staff this winter.

9. Hollywood shuffle
The Dodgers controlled themselves during free agency last winter, bringing back while adding Martinez, , and on one-year deals. The quiet 2022-23 offseason may have simply been a one-year exception, as the Dodgers are expected to make a big run at Ohtani to pair him with and for one of the best 1-2-3 punches in recent memory. Of course, Ohtani wouldn’t help Los Angeles’ pitching issues until 2025 due to his elbow surgery, so president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman will spend plenty of time looking to upgrade a rotation that ranked ninth in the NL with a 4.57 ERA.

10.  Pivot point in Cincy
The Reds were one of the game’s best stories in 2023, as Cincinnati bounced back from a 100-loss 2022 season to post 82 victories. The emergence of rookies , , , and left the Reds feeling good about the future, but president of baseball operations Nick Krall will have to bolster the pitching staff if Cincinnati hopes to take a run at a very winnable NL Central in 2024. Then there’s , the longtime face of the franchise, whose contract expired this season. Votto wants to play in 2024, though it remains to be seen whether it will be with the Reds or another club.

11. Playing their Cards right?
Few teams have as much on their to-do list this winter as the Cardinals, whose 71-91 record marked their first losing season since 2007 and their worst season since 1995. St. Louis must rebuild a pitching staff that lost Montgomery, Flaherty and at the Trade Deadline and to retirement, leaving and as the only veteran starters under contract. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak should be a player in the free-agent market, though with a glut of outfielders on the roster, St. Louis could also look to the trade market to address some of its needs in what promises to be a busy offseason.

12. A new standard for closers
set a new standard for free-agent closers last year with his five-year, $102 million deal to stay with the Mets, the largest deal ever given to a relief pitcher. That deal is likely to be broken this winter by Hader, a five-time All-Star and three-time winner of the Trevor Hoffman Award, presented to the National League’s top reliever. Hader, who turns 30 in April, is unquestionably the top closer available this winter, setting himself up for a potential bidding war that should help him eclipse Díaz’s record contract.