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We haven’t checked on the Cy Young Award candidates in a few weeks, and now is a good time to do so. There has been quite the shakeup since we last voted and gave the odds on May 19. Let’s take a look at how our thoughts play out here in the early part of June, with DraftKings Sportsbook odds provided.

Shane McClanahan
First-Place Votes: 6
AL Cy Young Odds: +650

McClanahan has been charging up the board on DraftKings Sportsbook really since the season began. Not long ago, he was over 10-1 odds to take home AL Cy Young. Now? He's tied with Gerrit Cole for the second-best odds. How did we get here so quickly? Well, the numbers that McClanahan has posted for the Rays during his sophomore season are nothing short of impressive.

We’ve seen 64 1/3 innings from McClanahan, and he’s lights out. Through 11 starts, he’s posted a sparkling 2.10 ERA (2.43 xERA), a 12.4 K/9, a 1.6 BB/9, and just a 1.1 HR/9. No team has tagged him for more than three runs in a start, and he’s allowed one or no runs in five of them. What’s most impressive for me are his strikeout numbers. Amongst pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, McClanahan leads them all with 89. Two of the three names just below him? Cole and the reigning NL Cy Young from last year, Corbin Burnes. Even when opposing hitters are producing contact against McClanahan, they’re not making hard contact. His 33.1% hard-hit rate allowed is one of the lowest in the league, currently ranking sixth amongst eligible starters.

I feel McClanahan is going to see his odds shift once again in the very near future. Barring any schedule changes, he’s scheduled to face the Cardinals, Yankees, Orioles, Pirates and Brewers this month. Against lefties, all those teams except for the Cardinals, are ranked in the top 10 in K% against lefties. The Orioles (25.8%) and Brewers (24.4%) are in the top five, while the Pirates (24%) and Yankees (23.6%) are ranked seventh and ninth. If he cruises through this month, you’ll be wishing you had +650 again.

Nestor Cortes
First-Place Votes: 19
AL Cy Young Odds: +800

If you were looking for an opportunity to jump in (possibly again) on Cortes winning in the AL, this might be your chance. He leads our rankings in the AL, but he’s now coming off his worst start of the season. The Twins were able to get to him Wednesday night, tagging him for four runs on seven hits, including two home runs, through 4 1/3 innings. It was only the first time this season he’s allowed at least four runs while also tying his lowest strikeout total in a game in 2022. Even with this bad start, his overall numbers are still looking mighty fine. His ERA still sits under 2.00 at 1.96 (2.19 xERA) with a 9.9 K/9, a 1.9 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9.

I still think Cortes and McClanahan, as well as Dylan Cease, are the most likely options to win the AL Cy Young as things stand now. Cortes’ advanced stats show that he’s pitching as well as his surface numbers state, and he’s showing no signs of regressing even after this start against the Twins. What’s working in both players' favor is that Justin Verlander (+390) is still pitching well. That said, some of Verlander’s advanced stats show that he could be due for some regression soon. While he boasts an impressive 2.13 ERA, his xERA is nearly a run higher at 2.94. His FIP, which is a stat that measures a pitcher's effectiveness by taking plays that would involve defense out of the equation, sits at 3.45. If Verlander starts to falter soon, the odds for Cortes and McClanahan will also adjust. Taking either of these guys at this time would be a wise move, in my opinion.

Sandy Alcantara
First-Place Votes: 16
NL Cy Young Award Odds: +550

I’m fully under the impression that the National League Cy Young will go to someone on the Marlins. Both Alcantara and Pablo López have pitched well enough to earn the award, and neither would surprise me. Yet, Corbin Burnes is still your odds-on favorite at +450. I don’t think he’s priced correctly. While Burnes is once again pitching very well, we’ve seen some dents in the armor already. The Padres tagged him for five runs through 3 2/3 innings his last time out, which was not long after the Braves hit him for four runs through six innings. All starters are allotted some bad outings at times, but the strikeout numbers are also down for Burnes. Over his last five starts, Burnes has struck out no more than six hitters in three of those games. While it’s extremely hard to replicate the 12.6 K/9 he had last season, he’s down to just above 11 through 68 1/3 innings. Believe me, it feels like I’m splitting hairs here with how I’m nitpicking Burnes. But if I’m being honest, he simply hasn’t been the most dominant pitcher in the NL.

This brings me to Alcantara, who earned a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday despite throwing nine scoreless innings. Scattering six hits, he struck out six and didn’t walk a hitter. Alcantara has now allowed just two earned runs over his last five starts, which spans 41 innings. He’s simply been untouchable. While he doesn’t have the strikeout appeal that some of the other candidates have, Alcantara makes up for that by throwing clean and harmless innings. Of his 12 starts, he's allowed no more than one earned run in eight of them. While his 1.61 ERA is also accompanied by a 2.55 xERA, I still firmly believe Alcantara is a better candidate than Burnes at this point.

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