The hottest rookies of the past two weeks
Hot starts are important. There is nothing like stepping off on the right foot. But baseball is a game of adjustments. What happens to a player once opposing batters and pitchers have two weeks of data on them? Can they keep the hot streak going, or are they left exposed?
This edition of MLB Pipeline’s rookie hot list covers what came next after the first two weeks of the Major League season – the players that continued their fiery openings, those that have made necessary improvements and those that are still making impressive introductions to the 2021 season.
These are the 10 hottest rookies of the 2021 season from April 13-26:
1. Adolis García, OF, Rangers (unranked)
Everyone likes to start with a good story. García was designated for assignment twice – once by the Cardinals in 2019, again by the Rangers in February -- only to return to the Majors on April 13. Since then, he’s been on absolute fire. The right-handed slugger hit five homers over his first 10 games, including two on April 23 against the White Sox in Chicago. His 13 RBIs are tied for second-most in the Majors in this April 13-26 timeframe, and his 32 total bases rank fourth. His five homers are the most by a rookie all season, regardless of the timing. Standing at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, the player nicknamed "El Bombi" is more power tool over hit; seven of his 14 hits have gone for extra bases, leading to a .615 slugging percentage against just a .269 average and .309 OBP. It’s likely pitchers will catch up to him over a larger sample, but no one’s taking away his AL Player of the Week Award or his spot here at the top of the list.
2. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins (graduated from Top 30)
Rogers was No. 5 on the last rookie hot list and has moved up as he’s managed to improve deeper into April. The Marlins southpaw made three starts in the last two weeks and pitched to a 1.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while striking out 22 and walking only four in 18 innings. Both of his earned runs came in an April 15 outing in Atlanta; since then, he has posted back-to-back scoreless outings against the Orioles and Brewers in which he’s fanned 15 and issued only one free pass in 13 frames. Rogers leads all rookie hurlers with 38 strikeouts (11 more than his closest competition) and 28 innings pitched. With Sixto Sánchez out, the 2017 first-rounder has been the rookie force the Miami pitching corps has needed.
3. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals (graduated from Top 30)
Any concerns about what type of hitter Carlson could be in his second go-round in St. Louis are being erased by the day. The recently graduated Top 100 prospect is catching fire at the plate in multiple ways. He hit .385/.478/.564 with two triples and three doubles over 46 plate appearances during this eligibility period. Thanks to six walks in that time, his .478 OBP sits atop rookie qualifiers over the last two weeks, while his 1.042 OPS tops the list among those to get at least 25 plate appearances. Sure, there weren’t any long balls, though Carlson did hit three in the first week of the season, but the rest of the switch-hitter’s profile makes up for that zero. Carlson started out 2021 batting in the sixth and seventh spots in the Cards’ lineup but has moved up to second in recent days. Performances like these should lock him in there.
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/SS, Marlins (graduated from Top 30)
As he quickly becomes one of the game’s most GIF-able players, Chisholm remains one of its hottest rookies as well. The Marlins middle infielder continues to bring his promising mix of power and speed to the top level. Chisholm clubbed three homers and added four stolen bases over 12 games for Miami in this stretch. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. (six homers, four steals) cleared those bars in both categories over the last two weeks. Chisholm overcame a high strikeout rate (34.7 percent) to produce a .311/.367/.556 line in this time, and even if his swing-and-miss tendencies hurt his performance deeper into the season, he has plenty of other tools that bring excitement to the Marlins on a daily basis.
5. Yermín Mercedes, DH, White Sox (No. 20)
No, his April 19 pitching appearance doesn’t factor into this. But the slugger who occupied the No. 1 spot in the first edition of the hot list has kept on trucking with more standout performances at the plate. Mercedes has hit .368/.400/.579 with two homers, two doubles and eight RBIs over the last two weeks. That stretch has kept him atop the MLB batting title race with a .429 average on the season; he and Mike Trout (.426) are the only qualified batters hitting above .400 at this stage. Mercedes’ 1.145 OPS also ranks fourth among all qualified sluggers for the entire 2021 campaign. Just when anyone thinks the Chicago designated hitter is about to cool off, he mixes in a 4-for-4 game like he did last Friday against Texas. Bet against Mercedes at your own peril.
6. Ryan Weathers, LHP, Padres (No. 5, MLB No. 90)
Coming off his MLB debut in last year’s playoffs, Weathers opened up the season in San Diego’s bullpen before getting his first look as a starter on April 16 against the Dodgers. In fact, each of his starts this season has come against the defending World Series champions, and both times, Los Angeles has struggled to touch the 21-year-old southpaw. Weathers struck out nine and scattered two hits and three walks over 9 1/3 scoreless innings over his two outings against the Dodgers. His most recent appearance (5 2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 89 pitches) on April 22 was by far his most impressive in the Majors, and he earned extra points for outdueling Walker Buehler in the effort. It's worth remembering that this is a hurler whose last regular-season appearance before 2021 came at Class A Fort Wayne in 2019.
7. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox (No. 2, MLB No. 34)
Similar to what the Padres are doing with Weathers, the White Sox saw how dominant Kopech was through the early stretches of 2021 and have started utilizing him in a starter’s role with promising results. The right-hander’s upper-90s fastball and plus slider continue to deliver whiffs at impressive rates. Over the last two weeks, he fanned 16 batters in 9 1/3 innings across three appearances (two starts). Only Jacob deGrom (55.8 percent) had a higher K rate than Kopech’s 44.4 percent among pitchers with at least nine innings since April 13. He has also posted a 0.86 WHIP and has avoided the control problems that have plagued his profile with only two free passes issued. Since he is still coming off 2018 Tommy John surgery and elected not to play in 2020, Kopech may take a little while longer to get fully built up to a starter’s workload, but the results are working in both short and longer stints right now.
8. Pavin Smith, OF/1B, D-backs (No. 15)
Smith’s career has been a roller coaster, from a 2017 top-10 pick to a prospect on the fringes of the D-backs’ Top 30 to his current place as a consistent performer in the Arizona lineup. Smith has hit .317/.378/.585 with two homers, a triple and three doubles over his last 10 games, and those numbers aren’t light either. The left-handed slugger ranks sixth among Major Leaguers hitters (minimum 50 batted balls) with a 57.7 percent hard-hit rate and tops the list with a 29.7 percentage of hard-hit-balls-per-swing. When Smith lets it go, he swings with purpose and is driving the ball much better than he did in the Minors. What’s more, he has played first, center and right as Arizona works to keep that bat in the lineup. The roller coaster is climbing right now, and there are indications it won’t drop soon.
9. Josh Fleming, LHP, Rays (No. 20)
The 24-year-old left-hander is a different breed of pitcher from the others on this list. Fleming works primarily with a sinker, cutter and changeup and makes the package work – despite lacking a pitch that sits above 91 mph – because of promising control and an impressive ability to keep the ball on the ground. He put the arsenal to work in three appearances (two starts) in this window and came out with a 1.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .189 average against in 14 2/3 innings. Fleming doesn’t work many strikeouts (only eight in this window), but his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage both rank in at least the 90th percentiles through the first four weeks of the season. The Rays will keep finding ways to make the most of Fleming’s abilities, whether it be in starts or as the bulk pitcher behind an opener.
10. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox (graduated from Top 30)
What you see is what you get from the Chicago second baseman, and for as long as he’s been in pro ball, what everyone has seen is a player with an elite hit tool who makes lots of contact but provides little power. True to form, Madrigal has gone 13-for-36 (.361) with no homers, two triples and two doubles over 10 games since April 13. He has struck out only once (and walked only once) over 38 plate appearances in that time. Madrigal is now hitting .308 on the season and owns a 2.8 percent K rate that is best among Major League qualified hitters. Take that one step further, and his .375 average with two strikes is highest at the top level as well.