Top 10 farm systems by pitchers
MLB Pipeline's complete preseason farm system rankings were released on Monday. Now, it's time to get even more specific.
Over the coming days, MLB Pipeline is ranking farm systems by their position-player and pitcher groups as well as their 21-and-under talent. This provides one way of highlighting the strengths of the game's best farm systems and also gives us a chance to point out ways that some of the more middling clubs can still stand out on their own. Rankings take into account Top 100 talent, overall depth and a variety of types of prospects, among other factors.
The first edition tackled the top 10 sets of position players. Now, we move on to the best groups of pitching prospects:
1. Detroit Tigers
Top 100 Prospects: Casey Mize (No. 11), Tarik Skubal (No. 24), Matt Manning (No. 25)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 8
This shouldn't come as a shock. No other system can claim two pitching prospects ranked among MLB Pipeline's top 25 overall. The Tigers have three of them. Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning are all on the cusp of building what could be the Motor City's version of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Mize and Skubal already have time at the top level, while 23-year-old Manning shouldn't be far behind. Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo have dealt with Tommy John surgeries -- Wentz is returning from his rehab, Faedo underwent his procedure this offseason -- but both are capable of making the Tigers' starting five fully homegrown by the end of 2022. As we covered in the position-player rankings, Detroit might actually be deeper in hitters among its Top 30 prospects, but there is simply no other organization that can claim this level of pitching talent at the top of its farm system.
2. Miami Marlins
Top 100 Prospects: Sixto Sánchez (No. 15), Max Meyer (No. 28), Edward Cabrera (No. 68)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 14
The Fish were a tough cut from the position-player ranking but surge to the top-three podium for pitching prospects. Sixto Sánchez looked the part of an ace basically right away in his first trip to the Majors. Max Meyer, last year's first-rounder, has a similar ceiling with two plus-plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and Edward Cabrera has a dominant starter's arsenal all his own. Looking beyond the Top 100 contingent, first-rounders Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett both reached The Show earlier than expected in 2020, and Rogers in particular boosted his stock by fanning 39 in 28 innings. Most of the remaining pitchers fall in the 20-30 range on the Miami list, so the depth isn't entirely as good as the number above appears. But as the Marlins look to surprise in a loaded National League East, the arms should be the ones leading the charge in 2021 and beyond.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Top 100 Prospects: Luis Patiño (No. 19), Brendan McKay (No. 72), Shane McClanahan (No. 84), Shane Baz (No. 90)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 14
The Rays added a top-20 overall talent in Luis Patiño in a trade with the Padres this offseason. It just cost them ace and franchise cornerstone Blake Snell in return. (No. 11 prospect Cole Wilcox came over in the same move.) But that's the way the Rays operate. Tampa Bay also added No. 90 overall prospect Shane Baz in the famed 2018 deadline deal with the Pirates for Chris Archer, thus continuing to spin the wheel that turns Major Leaguers into even more long-term prospect depth. Much of the rest of the Tampa Bay pitching corps has been built through the Draft, including high picks Brendan McKay, Shane McClanahan, Nick Bitsko, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson and Brent Honeywell. There is also a solid history of development here; Joe Ryan and Josh Fleming were both taken outside the first four rounds but rank among the Rays' top 20 prospects entering 2021. Even with Snell out the door, there's no reason to doubt that the Rays can ride their conveyor belt of talent on the mound to more Major League success.
4. Seattle Mariners
Top 100 Prospects: Emerson Hancock (No. 31), Logan Gilbert (No. 33), George Kirby (No. 92)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 18
For all the talk about Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez as the two potential stars, the Mariners system is actually deeper on the mound than it is in the field. It isn't hard to see why. The organization has used three straight first-round picks on college arms in Emerson Hancock (2020), George Kirby (2019) and Logan Gilbert (2018), and each member of that trio enters 2021 as a Top 100 prospect. All three have deep arsenals and impressive control that should help their case to be starters at the top level. Fellow recent picks Brandon Williamson, Connor Phillips, Isaiah Campbell, Levi Stoudt and Adam Macko rank among Seattle's top 15 prospects before they've pitched a full Minor League season. The arm poised to take a jump could be No. 9 Juan Then, a 21-year-old right-hander who was traded away in 2017 and then re-acquired from the Yankees two years later.
5. Kansas City Royals
Top 100 Prospects: Daniel Lynch (No. 29), Asa Lacy (No. 30)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 17
The Royals graduated both former top prospect Brady Singer and 2019 Minor League strikeout leader Kris Bubic last season, and they still have more than enough to fit comfortably in the top five of these rankings. It helps that Asa Lacy -- MLB Pipeline's No. 3 prospect in last year's Draft -- fell to Kansas City at the fourth overall pick. Fellow left-hander Daniel Lynch remains the best arm in the system with three above-average pitches and good control, and Jackson Kowar might have the best offering of them all in his 70-grade changeup. If not for the Tigers, the Royals would have a claim for the best pitching prospect trio in the AL Central. The rest of the pitching depth among Top 30 prospects comes homegrown through the Draft and international markets. Even with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the hitters, the arms are the ones that helped Kansas City secure a top-10 overall system ranking heading into 2021.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
Top 100 Prospects: Nate Pearson (No. 10), Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 87)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 14
Nate Pearson has struggled to stay consistently healthy during his days in pro ball, as evidenced by his current bout with a groin strain, but with his triple-digit heater and plus slider, he is one of the most electric arms in prospectdom when he's on. Case in point: he is MLB Pipeline's top-rated right-handed pitching prospect heading into 2021, and only MacKenzie Gore ranks higher among pitchers in general. Lower down the Top 100 list, Simeon Woods Richardson was acquired from the Mets in a 2019 trade and has spent his days in the Toronto pipeline sharpening a four-pitch arsenal that features 55 and 60 grades across the board. Alek Manoah -- the 11th overall pick in 2019 -- has flashed Top 100 potential this spring and could easily climb to that status once he pitches consistently in the Minors after missing out on a full season last year. In the more immediate term, Joey Murray, Julian Merryweather and T.J. Zeuch could all be options to help the big club this summer. It's that nearby help for Toronto, at a time when the club is truly pushing for contention, that helps put the Jays in this spot.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Top 100 Prospects: Grayson Rodriguez (No. 27), DL Hall (No. 70)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 12
The story here is the two big names, followed by a lot of upper-level depth. Grayson Rodriguez has worked his way into becoming one of the 10 best right-handed pitching prospects in the game with three plus to plus-plus pitches in his fastball, slider and changeup. DL Hall is ranked much lower overall but still comes in at No. 9 on the left-handed pitching prospect ranks with a headlining pitch of an upper-90s fastball with good movement. The next tier is filled with hurlers with 2021 ETAs, including Dean Kremer, Michael Baumann, Keegan Akin and Zac Lowther. Kremer and Akin, in particular, both look like good bets to crack the Major League rotation coming out of spring. Some of those could be bridges to Rodriguez and Hall. Some could very much fit next to them in future starting plans. At least the pitching base is there to make the horizon look a little sunnier in Baltimore.
8. San Diego Padres
Top 100 Prospects: MacKenzie Gore (No. 6)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 18
The loss of Patiño certainly hurts the ceiling of this collection of arms and left the Padres with only one Top 100 pitching prospect. At the same time, that one talent just so happens to be at the top of MLB Pipeline's pitching list in MacKenzie Gore. The 22-year-old left-hander shows the potential for four above-average pitches and has a history of throwing in the zone consistently. Gore isn't alone in terms of high-ceiling arms, and that's why San Diego still snuck into the top 10. Fellow southpaw Ryan Weathers just missed out on the Top 100 after improved velocity pushed him to make his Major League debut in last year's postseason. On the right-handed side, Justin Lange and Reggie Lawson show at least two offerings apiece that could be above-average at the Major League level. In total, 18 of San Diego's Top 30 prospects are pitchers. It's not as deep a group as it was a year ago before the Padres got aggressive on the trade market, but it's still plenty solid.
9. Chicago White Sox
Top 100 Prospects: RHP Michael Kopech (No. 39), LHP Garrett Crochet (No. 56)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 13
The White Sox pitching core is a microcosm of the system as a whole. There are the two big names and then a significant dropoff. In this case, the two names are still big enough to buoy Chicago into one of the final spots in the top 10. Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet feature two of the best fastballs anyone will ever see from prospects, and they have promising sliders that could get them into future rotations on the South Side. For now, both will open the 2021 season in the Chicago bullpen with the hope of getting starts later in the summer. That said, 2020 second-rounder Jared Kelley could make for a promising future headliner as he enters the pro ranks, and fellow recent Draft picks Matthew Thompson, Jonathan Stiever and Andrew Dalquist have the repertoires to slot into starting roles themselves. That group will need to start developing in 2021, however, because the White Sox hurlers will drop once Kopech and Crochet graduate.
10. New York Yankees
Top 100 Prospects: RHP Clarke Schmidt (No. 88)
Pitchers among Top 30 prospects: 13
We could go any number of ways with the final spot in the top 10. The pick here leans on depth, specifically depth of hard-throwing right-handers. Eleven of the 13 ranked Yankees pitching prospects are right-handed, including each of the top six. Clarke Schmidt and Deivi García are the obvious big names as two pitchers with starting-caliber arsenals and Major League proximity. In the next tier, Luis Gil and Luis Medina both sport 75-grade fastballs that should at least get them looks in some form at the top level. Alexander Vizcaino and Albert Abreu feature plenty of gas themselves, while Yoendrys Gomez and left-hander T.J. Sikkema are a little more diverse in their pitching skill sets. Still, anyone could do a lot worse than betting on a whole stable of arms that can touch the mid- to upper-90s regularly during their Minor League days, and it's that velo that gives the pinstriped pitchers the edge over other competitors.
Just missed list: Cleveland and Atlanta both have legitimate gripes for missing out here. The former features a Major League-ready arm in Triston McKenzie and other upside arms that are much further away in Daniel Espino, Ethan Hankins and Josh Wolf. The latter sports an even better present Major Leaguer in Ian Anderson and more upper-level pitchers like Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson and Jasseel De La Cruz. Neither quite features the same depth or high-end talent as those in the top 10, but they have solid cases all their own.