The best Draft prospect from each state
The 2021 First-Year Player Draft is nearly here. The first round will be held Sunday in Denver, kicking off the process that will send hundreds of high school and college players into pro baseball for the first time.
As a means of previewing the 2021 Draft, MLB Pipeline breaks down the best prospects from each state as well as the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Canada. Picks were based on Pipeline’s Top 250 Draft Prospects list, as organized by Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo. Any state without a Top 250 representative received a pick below with input from scouts and other front-office executives. Unfortunately, not every state has a prospect likely to be picked among this year’s 20 rounds.
Check out MLB.com/Draft for more coverage of this year’s big event.
Alabama: Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama (No. 35)
Wilson -- the 2019 Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year -- is a bat-first left-handed hitter. His power has backed up since he went deep 17 times as a freshman, but it’s been replaced by a patient approach and keen strike-zone awareness that saw him hit .318 and post a .419 OBP and 21/33 K/BB ratio this spring for South Alabama. He’ll need to hit to create the most value as a below-average runner with an arm that likely limits him to left field.
Alaska: None
Arizona: Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain HS (No. 34)
Kath took the opportunity to show an impressive bat at showcase events to heart and jumped into scouts’ considerations when he got aggressive from the left side and showed he could be an above-average hitter at the top level. Even at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, power takes a back seat to the hit tool, but there is certainly size to dream on. Kath is a shortstop now but projects to be a third baseman, where his plus arm will play. He is committed to Arizona State but seems likely to go too high to stay a Sun Devil.
Arkansas: Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas (Texarkana) HS (No. 94)
Anyone taking Bishop early in the Draft is betting on his athletic tools, more than his offensive ones. The high-school quarterback shows plus speed and good instincts in center field, where his above-average arm plays just fine. The left-handed bat is still raw. Bishop looked overmatched in showcases against top-level pitching, but he has the bat speed on which to build a well-rounded player.
California: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (No. 1)
The Golden State boasts the No. 1 talent in this Draft. Mayer has every chance to be the third Californian prep player taken first overall in the last six Drafts (Royce Lewis and Mickey Moniak being the others). Mayer has the look of a plus hitter from the left side, and that package comes with above-average power as well. The kicker is that he earns 60 grades for his glove and arm at a premium position, and that well-rounded set of tools would instantly make him one of the game’s best young prospects.
Canada: Calvin Ziegler, RHP, Heidelberg, Ontario (No. 123)
Ziegler can throw as hard as 97 but is typically more in the low-to-mid-90s range with his fastball. The 6-foot right-hander also earns solid grades for his breaking pitch that he calls a curveball but can look more like a slider at times. His changeup comes with the same arm speed as the fastball but will need a lot more reps to develop into a plus offering. Ziegler is committed to Auburn.
Colorado: Alec Willis, RHP, Regis Jesuit HS (No. 130)
Standing at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, Willis has a ton of projection as an 18-year-old hurler. That’s important because presently the stuff won’t jump off the page in a similar fashion to other prep pitchers. His fastball sits 90-94, and his curveball and changeup are average at best. A team selecting Willis will believe it can use his size to draw even more velocity as he matures. Willis is headed to the University of Minnesota if he doesn’t sign.
Connecticut: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (No. 39)
The no-hit kid. Mozzicato drew headlines by throwing four straight no-hitters this spring for his Manchester-based high school -- a stretch of performances that could push him to the cusp of the first round. The 6-foot-3 southpaw can touch the low-90s with his fastball after adding velocity this spring. His best grades are reserved for his plus curve that earns points for its tight bite. He committed to UConn -- coached by the father of his catcher and close friend -- but will likely be taken too high to consider the college route.
District of Columbia: Carter Bosch, RHP, Georgetown (unranked)
Bosch can throw in the mid-90s in shorter stints and features a good slider from his 6-foot-2 frame. He pitched as both a starter and a reliever, striking out 10 in a May 8 start at Villanova, but bouts of wildness (28 walks in 31 1/3 innings) point to a future in the bullpen.
Delaware: Joseph Carpenter, 1B, Delaware (unranked)
The right-handed slugger jumped on the scene as the CAA Rookie of the Year in 2019 and seemed ready to take off again with a .327/.397/.418 line before the pandemic last year. His numbers backed up some as a junior in 2021 (.260/.359/.435, five homers in 34 games), and that’s tough to swallow from someone who has only played the cold corner in college. Carpenter’s longer record of hitting for solid averages could get him a late look, and he is attempting to help his stock with Mystic in the New England Collegiate Baseball League this summer.
Florida: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (No. 18)
You might want to start with Painter’s height at 6-foot-6, but that would be doing him a disservice. The 18-year-old right-hander is more than just size and projectability. He has three legitimate above-average pitches in his 93-95 mph fastball, 12-to-6 curve and good changeup. The mid-80s slider gives him another option. Thanks to a repeatable delivery, Painter has a chance to throw for more strikes than typical pitchers his size. As a top prep pitcher in this class, he isn’t likely to head to Florida in college and could find a spot in the top 15 picks.
Georgia: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (No. 8)
Most of the best prep shortstop debate in this class surrounds Mayer, Jordan Lawlar and House. Don’t be surprised if House, who was seen ahead of those two last summer, takes over that claim in time. The right-handed slugger shows promising plus power, so much so that he sometimes sold out for pop in the past. When he shortens his swing, he can be a promising overall hitter as well. House also showcases a plus arm that should be an asset should he ever need to move over to third. But it’s his slugging ability that could eventually give the 6-foot-4 infielder the leg up in the future.
Hawaii: Caleb Lomavita, C/OF, Saint Louis HS (unranked)
Lomavita was Hawaii’s Gatorade Player of the Year after hitting .414, slugging .758 and hitting a pair of home runs in 10 games this spring. He also posted a 1.71 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings. Scouts got a look at Lomavita at the MLB Combine, and he’s committed to Cal.
Idaho: Jacob Hughes, RHP, Rocky Mountain HS (unranked)
Hughes was throwing in the high-80s with a curveball, slider and changeup at a Perfect Game event in Arizona last fall. The 6-foot-3 right-hander is committed to Oregon.
Illinois: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois (No. 55)
Sweeney has taken off at the plate in the last two years, culminating in a .382/.522/.712 line, 14 homers and 24/46 K/BB ratio in 48 games this spring. The left-handed swinger is all hit tool at this point as he makes the most of his exceptional hand-eye coordination and ability to drive the ball to all fields, despite a large leg kick. His below-average speed and above-average arm portend a defensive move (likely to third), but he has the potential to provide value as a hitter from anywhere.
Indiana: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge HS (No. 25)
Montgomery exhibits a decent hit tool from the left side and shows above-average power coming from a 6-foot-4 frame. He could sell out for too much pop at times, but when he stays within himself and tries to use the whole field, scouts see a player with a good offensive ceiling. The Indiana commit possesses below-average speed and doesn’t seem long for short, though he has a good arm for third base. He’s old for the prep group of this class, having turned 19 in February.
Iowa: Brody Brecht, RHP, Ankeny HS (No. 77)
Brecht could be one of the most fascinating follows over the three days of the Draft. He tops out around 97 mph but typically sits around 92-94. His slider already receives plus grades because of its good break, while his curve gives another look. (He hasn’t thrown a changeup for scouts.) That, plus his projectability at 6-foot-4, would make for a solid high pick. However, Brecht seems intent on playing football as a wide receiver at Iowa. That is likely to cause him to drop, unless some organization wants to roll the dice and attempt to convince him financially to make the full-time move to the diamond.
Kansas: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State (No. 16)
Good changeups are rare among Draft-eligible players who don’t need them in amateur ball. Changeups that receive 65 grades are meant to be rare anywhere. That’s the caliber of offering we’re talking about here with Wicks, who draws raves for the low-80s pitch because of its depth and the way he sells it with arm speed. He also draws good reviews for his low-90s fastball and low-80s slider and doesn’t seem to have much of an issue finding the zone with a repeatable delivery. Wicks posted a 3.70 ERA with 118 strikeouts and 28 walks in 92 1/3 innings for the Wildcats this spring.
Kentucky: Henry Davis, C, Louisville (No. 5)
Davis became the top college hitter in this class by producing a .370/.482/.663 line with 15 homers and a 24/31 K/BB ratio in 50 games for the Cardinals this spring. The right-handed slugger projects for both above-average hit and power tools at the top level, thanks to his immense strength and ability to control the strike zone. His arm also gets impressive grades from behind the plate, though he is more raw in his framing and receiving back there. That would be less of an issue if the automated strike zone comes to the Majors, and at the least, there should be enough bat here to make Davis an exciting catcher for the team that takes him.
Louisiana: Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton HS (No. 29)
There are only a handful of players who could end up as the best overall hitter in this class, and Stovall has earned a spot in that conversation. Stovall’s swing from the left side is as smooth as it gets, and he’s capable of showing promising lift, especially to the pull side, though he can go the opposite way just fine too. A thicker lower half, below-average speed and 45-grade arm likely limit him to second base, and that lack of additional plus tools keeps the profile from getting too exciting. But the bat alone puts the Arkansas commit squarely in the first-round mix.
Maine: Nick Sinacola, RHP, Maine (unranked)
At the top of the NCAA leaderboard in strikeouts are Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. In sixth -- just ahead of Ty Madden and Will Bednar -- sat Sinacola, who fanned 139 in 79 1/3 innings for the Black Bears. The stuff doesn’t stand out quite like the stats. Sinacola will crack into the low-90s with his fastball but will sit in the high-80s at times too. His slider is the big K pitch, and he leaned on it heavily as a junior. Without a deeper arsenal, the 6-foot-2 right-hander has a future in the bullpen wherever he lands.
Maryland: Sean Burke, RHP, Maryland (No. 75)
The 6-foot-6 right-hander’s best attributes come from his 92-95 mph fastball that he can throw with good spin up in the zone, leading to more swings and misses than your typical four-seamer. That helps his knuckle curve because of its vertical movement, and his slider can also flash above-average, though neither breaker might be as good if he focused just on one of them. A lackluster change and below-average control give him a higher mountain to climb to become a starter at the next level, but the other parts of the arsenal provide hope.
Massachusetts: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College (No. 11)
Frelick shot up Draft boards this spring by hitting .359/.443/.559 with six homers and 13 steals in 48 games with the Eagles, a much-needed improvement from a short 2020 that saw him hit just .241 in 15 contests. The 5-foot-9 outfielder is a legit plus-plus runner, a skill that comes into play in all aspects of his game. His hitting gives him another promising tool, considering he makes a lot of contact with good bat speed. Frelick’s size likely limits his power ceiling, but he has plenty of other ways to impact the game as an up-the-middle player.
Michigan: Alex Mooney, SS, St. Mary’s Prep (No. 64)
It’s a full cupboard of solid-but-not-plus tools for the soon-to-be-19-year-old. Mooney has the compact swing from the right side that scouts believe will make him an average hitter in time. His run and arm tools are the best of the bunch, and his aggression on the basepaths makes those wheels play up some. The Duke commit figures to stick up the middle at either short or second.
Minnesota: Zack Raabe, 2B, Minnesota (unranked)
Raabe is all hit as someone who has no trouble putting the barrel on the ball. His 31 hits in 67 at-bats in 2020 led Division I hitters in the abbreviated spring. He struggled some while trying to force the issue this season but still finished with a .315/.407/.532 line in 36 games. In all, Raabe struck out in only 12.5 percent of his collegiate plate appearances. The rest of the profile is fringy, but there should be a team willing to work with Raabe and get him back to 2020 levels in their farm system.
Mississippi: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi (No. 22)
This state is a close call between Hoglund and College World Series star Will Bednar (ranked No. 32 in Pipeline’s rankings), but we’ll stick with the former, who could have been in Top 10 consideration before he underwent Tommy John surgery this spring. When healthy, the 6-foot-4 right-hander sports three above-average pitches in his 92-95 fastball, tight slider and low-80s changeup. He rarely has an issue of throwing strikes too, helping lift the entire profile. The elbow procedure makes it a question of how he’ll return, but Tommy John recovery has a high rate of success these days. A team willing to ride out that rehab could get a top 2021 pitcher by the end of the process.
Missouri: Carter Jensen, C, Park Hill HS (No. 82)
Jensen is a hit-over-glove backstop and shows a good ability to bat against all types from the left side. His in-game power doesn’t quite match his strength just yet because of average bat speed, but that could come in time. The LSU commit has the above-average arm to work behind the plate, but his other defensive abilities are works in progress. He could be a catcher aided by an automated strike zone, if that ever comes to the game’s top level.
Montana: None
Nebraska: Drew Christo, RHP, Elkhorn HS (No. 236)
Christo throws in the late-90s with his fastball, showcases a better changeup than most prep pitchers and has shown the building blocks of a promising slider. But the 6-foot-4 right-hander, whose father Monte played backup quarterback at Nebraska, is considered almost certain to head to the Cornhuskers in the fall.
Nevada: Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (No. 37)
Whitaker features plus raw power from the right side and looked to be tapping into it even more the closer he gets to the Draft. The tradeoff, like many sluggers, is some swing-and-miss issues, and that makes his overall hit tool his only below-average skill at this point. A former infielder, Whitaker boasts a plus arm that fits just fine in right field.
New Hampshire: Ben Rice, C, Dartmouth (unranked)
The last time Rice played in a competitive environment he was named the Future Collegiate Baseball League MVP after hitting .350/.467/.683 with 11 homers in 43 games for Worcester. The Ivy League canceled sports this spring, robbing the 22-year-old, left-handed slugger of a chance to build on that. He’s instead playing in the Cape League with Cotuit, and a good showing there would certainly provide helium ahead of July 11.
New Jersey: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace HS (No. 17)
Solometo ranks as the highest prep left-hander in this class and falls one spot behind Wicks for the top southpaw regardless of school status. He throws 90-94 with plenty of life, and there’s plenty to dream on with his 6-foot-3 size. His breaking ball gets its best grades as a slider, and he’ll show an average changeup that scouts think will improve as he throws it. A funky delivery with a high leg kick makes it even tougher to pick up on that arsenal. Size, handedness and stuff make Solometo a solid bet to go top 20.
New Mexico: Jacob Kmatz, RHP, Sandia HS (unranked)
The 6-foot-4 right-hander hovers around 90 mph with his fastball and features a pair of breaking balls and a changeup that could all be at least average. With a clean delivery, he features more polish than stuff at this stage, and without a true plus pitch, his best bet might be in the back end of a Major League rotation. Kmatz is committed to Oregon State.
New York: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (No. 19)
Catchers who perform well on both sides of the ball aren’t easy finds by any means, and the team that takes Mack could add just the type. The Buffalo-area native could be an above-average left-handed hitter and is already one who shows a better approach than most his age. He repeatedly shows special pop times on steal attempts, and a plus arm makes that even more of a gamble by opposing teams. He has some raw elements (power, framing), but the whole package should make him a first-round option.
North Carolina: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (No. 4)
Watson features above-average tools across the board. Even his power could be 55-grade over time, and that’s saying something for a 5-foot-9 shortstop. He may actually try to hit for too much power at this stage, but evaluators seem confident he’ll adjust over time when he reaches the pros. Watson’s best asset is his plus to plus-plus running ability, and his athleticism should help him play wherever he’s needed. But for now, a five-tool shortstop will always be in consideration at the top of the Draft.
North Dakota: Bennett Hostetler, SS, North Dakota State (unranked)
Hostetler was granted an extra year of NCAA eligibility because of COVID-19 and made the most of his second senior year by hitting .394/.513/.606 with 10 homers and 19 steals for the Bison. He won the Summit League Player of the Year award for those efforts. The 23-year-old can do a little bit of everything, makes a good amount of contact and could be worth a late flyer by a team looking to save money with a senior sign.
Ohio: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH) (No. 14)
Looking for electric stuff? This is where to find it. Bachman can touch 100+ with his fastball and throws a nasty slider that earns 65 grades all its own. A heavy changeup gives him three above-average options. The Red Hawk struggled with control earlier in his time on campus but seemed to have those issues ironed out this spring, when he struck out 93 and walked 17 in 59 2/3 innings. Bachman isn’t huge at 6-foot-1 and features some effort in his delivery, hurting his chances to be a full-time starter, but everything else is there.
Oklahoma: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (No. 7)
Prep right-handers always face an uphill Draft battle because of the risk involved with pitching prospects, but Jobe is as solid as they come in that category. Spin rates, in particular, are big deals for the 18-year-old. His plus-plus slider has been measured at 3,000 rpm, and his mid-90s fastball can feature plenty of ride and spin all its own. Jobe has a much better changeup than most his age -- one that could be better than plus in time -- and also a curveball to keep hitters off. It’s a full starter’s package, and Jobe will only need experience, more than individual pitch development, to crack a Major League rotation.
Oregon: Aaron Zavala, OF, Oregon (No. 76)
Zavala is as pure a hitter as they come. The left-handed batter produced a .354 average over his three seasons in Eugene and hit .392/.525/.628 with nine homers and a 31/50 K/BB ratio in his junior year. As those numbers indicate, he controls the strike zone very well and sprays the ball to all areas of the field, though his power is limited to the gaps. Average speed and an average arm likely limit him to left field in the pros, but he has experience in right and at third as well.
Pennsylvania: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (No. 15)
Montgomery has speed, earning plus-plus grades from scouts. He has power, having won the Perfect Game All-American Classic Home Run Derby. He is a plus fielder in the outfield with impressive range. The right-handed hitter ticks a lot of boxes that should make him an early Day One pick. Concerns about his hit tool, stemming from a hitchy swing, are the only things bringing down the profile, but all the other pieces are there.
Puerto Rico: Ryan Cepero, INF, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (unranked)
Cepero is considered a gifted fielder up the middle with good arm strength and strong instincts to make most plays. The bat will determine just how far he can take his career. The 6-foot-1, right-handed hitter participated in the MLB Combine and is committed to Florida Southwestern State (Junior) College.
Rhode Island: Tyler Mattison, RHP, Bryant (unranked)
The 6-foot-4 right-hander was Draft-eligible last year but went unselected in the shortened version. (It hurt that he posted an 8.53 ERA in four starts during the abbreviated spring.) His results this season were much more dominant: 2.46 ERA, 95 strikeouts, 14 walks in 80 1/3 innings. Mattison will touch the mid-90s with his fastball and mixes in a curve, slider and changeup.
South Carolina: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (No. 20)
Taylor could be considered one of the most dynamic athletes of this Draft. He has won multiple state wrestling championships, played quarterback for another title-winning team and could play wide receiver for Clemson, should he head to college. His best baseball asset is his plus-plus speed that helps make him an impressive defensive center fielder. The offense faces more questions, though he should be an average overall hitter from the right side as he showed in showcase events.
South Dakota: Bransen Kuehl, RHP, Stevens HS (No. 213)
Kuehl has sat in the low-90s with his fastball and can throw an above-average slider that is notable for its depth. He experienced shoulder issues this spring, however, and was inconsistent with both offerings as a result. He is committed to play two ways at Utah.
Tennessee: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt (No. 2)
Look, there had to be one Vanderbilt pitcher here, and Leiter just nips his teammate Kumar Rocker for the top prospect out of the Volunteer State. The 21-year-old right-hander shows a 70-grade fastball, one that tops out around 97 and comes in with lots of life that generates swing and misses on its own. His curveball is his best off-speed offering, but he’ll show an above-average slider and change as well. Leiter led all Division I pitchers with 179 strikeouts in 110 innings this spring.
Texas: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (No. 3)
Lawlar has as much upside as any shortstop in this Draft, and that should make him an early pick on Sunday. His quick swing from the right side should help him for solid averages, and plenty believe he’ll hit for a good amount of power as he adds to his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame. The kickers are that he’s a plus runner and a near-lock to stick at short, thanks to good range and a strong arm. If all five of those tools click, Lawlar could be the class’s best position player when everyone’s careers are finished.
Utah: Janzen Keisel, RHP, Gunnison Valley HS (No. 242)
The 6-foot-3 right-hander sits in the low-90s with his fastball and can touch as high as 95. His upper-70s slider also helped him miss plenty of Utah bats back home, to the point where he barely needed his raw changeup. Keisel underwent Tommy John surgery already as a prep pitcher, and that’s something teams will have to consider going into the Draft. He is headed to BYU if he doesn’t go pro.
Vermont: Owen Kellington, RHP, U-32 HS (unranked)
Scouts don’t head to Central Vermont often, but Kellington has proved to be worth the journey for many. The 6-foot-2 right-hander throws in the low-90s with his fastball and adds an above-average curveball that has left many in the Green Mountain State flailing at the plate. He got a brief look with Vermont in the Futures Collegiate Baseball League, striking out three and walking two in two innings, but a lack of a test against tough competition hinders Kellington’s profile. He is committed to pitching at UConn if the Draft doesn’t work out as hoped.
Virginia: Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia (No. 51)
Standing at 6-foot, the left-hander is a fastball-curve pitcher because that combo alone works. Abbott will sit in the low-90s with his heater and throws the pitch with a little bit of a cut. He also throws a 12-to-6 curveball that might be better than his fastball, and he can alter the shape of that breaker depending on his needs. He started to use his changeup more after a full-time move to the Hoos rotation this spring, but it’s not at the level of the other two offerings. Abbott struck out 162 in 106 2/3 innings this spring, third-best in Division I behind Leiter and Rocker.
Washington: Ky Bush, LHP, Saint Mary’s (No. 67)
Bush bopped around from Washington State to an Arizona junior college to Saint Mary’s and really seemed to find a home with the Gaels. The 6-foot-6 left-hander averages around 94 mph with his fastball and throws the pitch with a good amount of deception. Bush’s slider can look more like a curve at times because of vertical break, but the pitch is still above-average, especially compared to his actual curve and changeup (both 45-grade pitches). Continuing to improve command will be a point of emphasis for Bush on the pro side.
West Virginia: Jackson Wolf, LHP, West Virginia (unranked)
Wolf could have been taken in a more expanded 2020 Draft but returned to Morgantown, where he posted a 3.03 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 89 innings this spring. Wolf doesn’t get as much velocity as one might expect from someone with his 6-foot-7 frame, throwing around the 90 mph mark, but the pitch plays up because of good spin. His breaking ball and changeup have their own consistency issues, but Wolf’s size and track record should make him a solid senior option.
Wisconsin: Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee (No. 62)
The state that has produced top Draft talents in Jarred Kelenic and Gavin Lux will look to add another in this 18-year-old shortstop. Miller, whose brother Owen debuted for Cleveland this season, is an advanced switch-hitter, one who earns above-average hit-tool projections. He isn’t flashy at shortstop, but his instincts and hands allow him to make more plays than the average defender at the six. It’s a high-floor projection for the Alabama commit.
Wyoming: None