'21 college Draft prospects as prepsters
The college versus high school debate in the context of the Draft misses the point. Talent is talent, regardless of where it comes from. And the majority of the top collegians in most years were coveted prospects as prepsters but just weren't signable at that point in their careers.
Of the 10 best college prospects on MLB Pipeline's recently released 2021 Draft Top 100, one was a first-round pick in high school and two others had the talent if not the signability to go that high. Six of them made our Draft Top 200 lists, while another enrolled early in college and never had the opportunity.
How do the current scouting reports on these players compare to how they were evaluated coming out of high school? Let's take a look.
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
2021: No. 1 | 2018: No. 23
Then: "Rocker usually pitches at 92-96 mph with his fastball and can reach 98, showing hard sink on occasion and generally commanding it well ... Rocker generates power with a quick arm and little effort, something that's also evident when he snaps off a wipeout slider in the mid-80s."
Now: Rocker's scouting report reads very similar to how it did three years ago, when he flashed first-round talent but dropped to the Rockies in the 38th round. He's still a physical 250-pounder with a high-octane fastball and slider who's seeking more consistency with his changeup and control.
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
2021: No. 3 | 2018: No. 54
Then: "The right-handed hitter has been swinging the bat extremely well, showing the ability to hit for average and power. He's super-athletic with plus run times down the line. One thing he doesn't have is an obvious long-term defensive home."
Now: After declining to sign with the D-backs as the 25th overall pick in 2018, McLain should go about 20 spots higher in July. He's much the same player, with the best bat-to-ball skills in the 2021 class, surprising pop for a little guy and plus run times -- and improved arm strength that enhances his chances of sticking at shortstop.
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
2021: No. 4 | 2018: No. 194
Then: "He recognizes pitches well, with a solid game plan, and he should be able to hit for average. Because he doesn't expand the zone, he drives good hitters' pitches and has plenty of raw power to tap into. His work behind the plate remains behind what he can do in the batter's box."
Now: A 36th-round pick by the White Sox three Drafts ago, Del Castillo stayed home to go to college at Miami. His 2018 scouting report remains spot on, as he offers the best combination of power and patience in this year's crop but has yet to answer questions about his ability to remain behind the plate. With his bat, he can still make an impact even if he doesn't.
Jaden Hill, RHP, Louisiana State
2021: No. 5 | 2018: No. 78
Then: "Hill works in the low 90s and reaches 95 mph with life on his fastball, showing a tendency to pick up velocity in the middle innings. For a high schooler who has been divided between two sports, he has a remarkably advanced changeup, throwing it with deceptive arm speed and good velocity separation while imparting sink and fade ... If he goes to college and focuses on baseball, he has the potential to develop into a first-rounder in the 2021 Draft."
Now: A three-star quarterback recruit, Hill turned down mid-level football programs and the Cardinals as a 38th-rounder. An elbow injury as a freshman and the pandemic this year have limited him to 21 2/3 college innings thus far, but he has added close to 40 pounds and now works with a mid-90s fastball that touches 99 mph and a still-nasty changeup. He has transformed his breaking ball from more of a slurve in high school to a true mid-80s slider.
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
2021: No. 6 | 2019: No. 33
Then: "From a velocity standpoint, Leiter often utilizes an average fastball, thrown in the 91-92 mph range, though he can go get 94-95 mph when he needs it. It plays up because he throws it with some sink and has outstanding command of the pitch. He has shown distinct breaking balls in the past, though he's been leaning on the curve more frequently this spring, and it was a true knee-buckling out pitch during his NHSI win."
Now: Leiter reportedly rejected $4 million offers in the 2019 Draft, causing him to slide to the Yankees in the 20th round. His college career consists of just 15 2/3 innings in the truncated 2020 season, so he hasn't been seen much since high school. He worked at 94-97 mph during fall practice and continues to show advanced feel for spin, though he hasn't used his changeup much and his control has been inconsistent at Vanderbilt.
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
2021: No. 8 | 2019: Enrolled early
Then: Fabian stood out on the showcase circuit and might have factored in the top two rounds of the 2019 Draft had he not bypassed his senior season to enroll early at Florida. He had obvious hitting ability, impressive power potential, solid to plus speed and the instincts to handle center field.
Now: One of the younger college players in the 2021 Draft, Fabian won't turn 21 until more than two months after he gets selected. He might have the most usable power in the class, though it comes with heightened swing-and-miss concerns as he has transformed into more slugger than hitter. He still moves well and plays a fine center field.
Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
2021: No. 9 | 2018: Unranked
Then: Jarred Kelenic went sixth overall in the 2018 Draft to the Mets, and scouts noted that fellow Wisconsin prep product Binelas outperformed him at times on the showcase circuit. They viewed him as a bat-first player with an uncertain defensive position who could land around the fifth round, but his signability didn't line up and the Nationals took him in the 35th round.
Now: Binelas is still a bat-first player with an uncertain defensive position but will go in the first round because of his combination of left-handed power, hittability and patience. He can flash plus straight-line speed but questions about his hands, footwork and throwing motion lead to diverging opinions as to whether he can last at the hot corner or will have to move to an outfield corner.
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
2021: No. 10 | 2018: No. 122
Then: "Madden usually pitches at 90-93 mph with his four-seam fastball and at 87-90 mph with sink and run on his two-seamer. If he adds some more strength and does a better job of using his legs in his delivery, he could reach the mid-90s more regularly. His hard low-80s slider and fading 78-82 changeup play off his heater well and give him two more potential plus offerings."
Now: Madden has added 35 pounds since the Royals drafted him in the 34th round and his stuff has gotten stronger as well. He now operates with a mid-90s fastball that hit 99 mph during fall practice, a plus mid-80s slider and a solid low-80s changeup -- and his delivery and control earn strong reviews as well.
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
2021: No. 13 | 2018: Unranked
Then: Cowser went undrafted and lightly recruited out of Cypress Ranch HS (Cypress, Texas), where he played with Madden and two pitchers who went in the first two rounds of the 2019 Draft: JJ Goss and Matt Thompson. Scouts did note that he came on late in his senior season and saw some parallels to Hunter Pence as a lanky, awkward yet effective corner outfielder.
Now: The only Sam Houston State player ever to make the U.S. collegiate national team, Cowser could surpass Glenn Wilson (No. 18 overall in 1980) as the highest pick in school history. He's one of the best pure hitters in the college ranks, has gotten stronger and faster and has some backers who think his solid speed and instincts will allow him to stay in center field.
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
2021: No. 16 | 2018: Unranked
Then: Wicks wasn't a factor in the 2018 Draft because he was a stocky left-hander who topped out in the mid-80s with his fastball. His advanced changeup and ability to pound the strike zone made him an attractive recruit for Kansas State, however.
Now: Wicks has blossomed into the best southpaw in the 2021 Draft after dominating in two college seasons and summer play. The Big 12 Conference freshman of the year in 2019, he has the top changeup in the Draft thanks to tumble, depth and deceptive arm speed. He also has some of the best command available and has pushed his fastball to 90-93 mph with a peak of 95 mph and high spin rates, though his breaking pitches are sill works in progress.