Remember when 16 teams made the postseason last year? That was pretty wild, right? There will be the usual 10 this year, though, which means, by definition, there will be at least six teams who take a step backward in 2021, and very likely more. It’s not fair to think of it that way: It’s not really a step backward when they eliminate six playoff spots on you. But when you’re a fan, all that matters is, We made the playoffs last year and not this year. That’s a step backward. You’re either playing in October or you’re not.

So today, we look at the six teams that made last year’s postseason but are currently the least likely to make this year’s, as ordered by FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds. We’ll take a look at what has gone wrong, what they can do to fix it and whether they can pull it off. Six fewer spots is a lot of spots. Here are the teams in most danger of not being able to stack postseasons in a row.

Not included here, by the way: The Cubs (39.8 percent) and the Blue Jays (26.9 percent), teams that made the playoffs last year but don’t have a better than even chance to make it in 2021. Reduced playoff participants, it’s a tough racket.

Teams listed from lowest playoff odds to higher.

Marlins: 0.1 percent

What has gone wrong: It’s a little surprising to see the Marlins, who did make the NLDS last year, we remind, in dead last on this list. Isn’t that supposed to be where the Twins are? But a four-game losing streak has the Marlins in last in the National League East, 10 games behind the Mets and with three teams in between them. This has to be particularly frustrating because the Marlins are one of two teams in the division with a positive run differential; they’ve outscored their opponents by two runs this year. But they’ve got a steep hole to dig out of. Too steep.

How to fix it: The Marlins were likely not entirely focused on this season anyway, with all the young talent in their system, but you can tell they’re ready to start pushing forward somewhat by the fact that they called up No. 5 prospect Jesús Sánchez this week. The intriguing outfielder might not be entirely ready for the bigs, but it makes sense: It’s time to start showing some more results, both on the big league roster and from the phenoms. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. and all those young pitchers showing out so far, the Marlins aren’t likely to claw their way back this year, but seeing what this team will be capable of soon is as easy as watching it on any given night. They’re learning how to win now. That’ll come in handy.

Prediction: No playoffs this year. But I bet this isn’t the team in last place in this division when the season ends.

Twins: 1.0 percent

What has gone wrong: You name it. Injuries have ravaged the lineup -- Byron Buxton was having an MVP season until he went down -- but the real nightmare has been the pitching, which has completely imploded. This team has had a .600-plus winning percentage for two years running. They’ll be lucky to get to .400 this year. The wheels have come off.

How to fix it: It cannot possibly remain this ugly. How can this team be two games behind Detroit, a team that is clearly rebuilding? The Twins will have to improve, if just by accident, with this much talent around. But it surely seems too late at this point. They are 16 games out of first place on June 17. The question is not whether they’re going to crawl their way back into the race. The question is whether they’re going to start trading away pieces.

Prediction: They won’t finish in last place, but, well, it’s fair to say the postseason winless drought isn’t ending this year.

Cardinals: 11.3 percent

What has gone wrong: The biggest worry for the Cardinals heading into the season was their lineup, specifically the outfield, but for all the offensive troubles the Cardinals have had, it’s the pitching that has been the source of their woes. Injuries have torn the Cardinals’ staff apart, with Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Kwang Hyun Kim (who just returned) and Jordan Hicks all going down. They’ve been left with Adam Wainwright and … crossing their fingers.

How to fix it: The consecutive weekend sweeps at the hands of the division-rival Reds and Cubs were the low point, but slowly, the Cardinals are trying to pull themselves back to water level. They’ve gained two games on both teams in two days, and Kim looked as good as he has all year Tuesday. Still, the rotation desperately needs help, but everybody needs pitching help, and this is not exactly a front office known for winning bidding wars. The offense is going to have to carry this team. And it does not look like an offense that’s capable of carrying anything.

Prediction: No one in this division is running away. But the Cardinals haven’t been this short on pitching in more than a decade.

Braves: 13.4 percent

What has gone wrong: Remember last year, when you wondered how in the world the Braves were staying in first place despite their rotation being in shambles? This year, the bill has come due. Drew Smyly has returned to his earlier career struggles, Max Fried has regressed and even Charlie Morton has been a little wobbly. Ian Anderson has been their only reliable starter now that Huascar Ynoa is on the IL, and the bullpen is back to having its old problems. Marcell Ozuna’s injury and subsequent arrest have dropped him out of a lineup that was solid but not spectacular. Add it all up, and the Braves are finally the middling team that projection systems have been arguing they were for years.

How to fix it: "More pitching” is a common answer, but it’s an obvious one: Cole Hamels was a bust last year, but maybe it’s worth another shot. But it’s going to be tough to fix this rotation and bullpen in time to catch the Mets, who have had injury problems of their own but have ridden them out much more smoothly than the Braves. Sometimes, you just have one of those years. This might be one of those years.

Prediction: They get above .500, but even if the Mets wobble, the Braves won’t be able to catch them.

Reds: 21.8 percent

What has gone wrong: Well, not that much has gone wrong: They do have a better winning percentage than last year, after all. But that’s only because of a recent hot streak that has pushed them into third place in the NL Central. Injuries have been an issue here, but the real culprit has been the bullpen, which just never seems to have enough arms. The rest of baseball knows the feeling.

How to fix it: Bullpen arms should be the priority, particularly now that Luis Castillo is slowly starting to come around. Sonny Gray’s injury puts pressure on that rotation, and can you really expect Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker to hit like MVPs all season? Still: You get a sense the Reds have already weathered the worst part of their season.

Prediction: Of all the teams on this list, this is the one most likely to win its division.

Cleveland: 27.5 percent

What has gone wrong: Five pitchers have made five starts or more for Cleveland this year. Only one of them, Aaron Civale, is currently in the rotation. Shane Bieber might not be gone for that long, but this has always been a top-heavy team. Now it is top-light.

How to fix it: Cleveland sure doesn’t seem like a team that’s going to go out and make a major move, so it just needs those starters to get healthy and hope José Ramírez has another one of his incredible four-month runs in him. But even that’s probably not enough for them to catch the White Sox.

Prediction: Hanging around the Wild Card race for most of the year, but falling just short.