Inbox: Which prospects are improving the most in AFL?

October 25th, 2024

We’re always looking for ways to examine things going on in baseball through a prospect lens. The World Series is clearly no exception.

Sometimes we come to it on our own. Case in point: Jim Callis provided an update of how each World Series team was built. But sometimes we get a little help from our friends. Frequent MLB Pipeline Inbox (and Podcast Mailbag) contributor “Blah Blah” submitted a question regarding whether the Yankees or Dodgers would win an all-prospects World Series. Basically, if Spring Breakout turned into a seven-game championship series, who would win? You can hear what we had to say on this week’s Pod episode, and also read about it in this story.

That obviously wasn’t the only question I got this week. So let’s get to some others now.

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Which prospects have improved the most in the AFL? -- @StevieDAles97

This might be a bit premature, looking at most improved guys in the AFL, but we can take a two-week snapshot, with the usual caveat that we shouldn’t put too much weight on stats in the hitting-friendly league. In terms of guys who might be righting the ship, it’s been encouraging to see what Colson Montgomery has done in his second AFL experience. He’s only 22, so it’s not like it was time to panic, but we did bump him down to No. 37 on the Top 100 after he posted a .719 OPS in 181 games in Double-A and Triple-A in his career. It’s just 10 games, but the 1.132 OPS with Glendale is much better, and more notably, the 10/4 BB/K ratio is nifty after he posted a 28.6 strikeout rate in 2024.

This is the third time in the AFL for the Nationals’ Robert Hassell. After missing more time in 2024 with hand issues that hindered his ability to impact the ball, he’s now healthy, and it’s showing up in the box score so far. As of Thursday, he was tied for the league lead with eight extra-base hits and has a .400/.462/.771 line in nine games. Still only 23, if he can show this ability to drive the ball more consistently when healthy in 2025, he’ll join the youth movement in Washington soon enough.

I’ll be honest here. I wanted to include some pitchers here, but it’s not a great crop. I will mention one reliever who has impressed: Reds right-hander Luis Mey. We’ve had him on the Reds’ Top 30 in the past, but he’s not there currently. Every Fall League, there are guys who come out of bullpens and light up radar guns. Mey has done just that, routinely touching triple digits. What’s more encouraging here is that he’s walked just one in three outings, without allowing a hit. This is a guy who has walked 7.1 per nine in his pro career, 7.0 in 2024 alone. It’s just 3 2/3 IP, so let’s not get too excited, but I know I can’t wait to see what he does the rest of the Fall League season.

Looking at some of the Rockies Arizona Fall League guys, which one do you believe will benefit the most with their time there this fall? Ritter, Guerrero, Messinger, Cordova, Prosecky, Brown, Hughes, Justice. The pitchers, in particular, could play a role with the Rox in the next few years. Ritter is pushing the envelope for a middle IF spot. -- @blakestbanter

The easy answer is that everyone benefits from their time in the AFL. But seriously, it depends on what you think the end result should be. Ideally, many of these players will play a role in Colorado in the next few years. I agree that Ryan Ritter could impact sooner rather than later. Making up for lost at-bats and working on his overall approach at the plate now could help him be ready at some point in 2025. We all know he can defend, and if he can get back to driving the ball like he did in 2023, he has the chance to be a solid regular.

I’m also very intrigued by Hughes and Prosecky. Hughes comes from the area of the country that I cover for the Draft, and I was very intrigued by his combination of improved stuff and feel for pitching. We need to give him some time to put Tommy John surgery behind him. The innings this fall are still part of the “getting back to who he is” program and could help him have a much more unfettered 2025. I could see him starting back in Hartford and if things click, he could be up by the end of the year. Prosecky missed a ton of time with injury (elbow), and he might be a reliever when all is said and done, but his stuff has the chance to play even though he’s further away. This is a good test to hopefully get him ready for the upper levels.

Who is the most likely under-20 year old to break through and have an impact? -- @freckled_fury

I wasn’t sure whether this question was meant about teen prospects who’ll have an impact in the big leagues in 2025, or are most likely to have an eventual impact. I’ve decided to pick one player with the former interpretation, not the latter (because that would lead to way too many options). I think we all need to keep an eye on Rangers top prospect Sebastian Walcott. He’ll play all of next season at age 19, and he touched Double-A to end this past season. I saw him up close at the Futures Game, and he is simply a physical specimen with ridiculous tools. He’s still raw, but he started putting it together more consistently in 2024. I could very easily see him taking another huge step forward in 2025, starting in Frisco but forcing the Rangers’ hand by playing his way into the big league plans. He’s that good.

What's a realistic timeline for Walker Jenkins to debut? -- @NoDakTwinsFan

Speaking of teenagers (for now, as he turns 20 in February) ... Even though he missed time this past year, Jenkins also made it to Double-A this year, like Walcott did. He’s probably in the same boat, though it obviously has to do with opportunity and where the big league team is at the time. Jenkins is such a tremendous pure hitter with power that I could see him going off back in Double-A in 2025 and moving from there. I’m sure the Twins would love for him to get as many ABs in the Minors for his development as possible, but a fully healthy 2025 season could put him in line for an end-of-year debut or, at the very least, give him the chance to compete for an Opening Day job in 2026.