Despite struggles, Vogt defends Game 3 matchup strategy
DETROIT -- Stephen Vogt will be on a shortlist, if not the favorite, for the American League Manager of the Year Award when it’s bestowed next month. But as Wednesday's Game 3 of the ALDS showed, the postseason is a completely different beast, where all decisions loom large -- and can put an entire season on the line.
Vogt’s Guardians were blanked, 3-0, at Comerica Park in a game that was largely defined by the many aggressive substitutions he made early. That then positioned A.J. Hinch to masterfully manage the Tigers by leveraging a litany of matchup advantages that manifested in large part from those that Vogt intended to create.
“Nothing that happened today caught us off guard,” Vogt said. “We were prepared for all of it. We took our shots when we had the opportunity to put some runs up, placed some bets and then just didn't come through.”
An unprecedented pinch-hitter
Top of 2nd inning, one out, runners on 1B/2B
Guardians right fielder Will Brennan became just the ninth player in postseason history to be pinch-hit for before his first plate appearance, and even the most recent -- Atlanta’s Adam Duvall in the 2020 NLCS -- was due to injury.
But Wednesday’s call to substitute big slugger Jhonkensy Noel was long in the works when the Tigers turned to lefty Brant Hurter, who’d just entered the game. Hurter followed righty Keider Montero, a starter/bulk pitcher by trade who was pulled after a six-pitch first inning, which itself was a coy move from Hinch, who didn’t even indicate to Montero his calculus until after he returned to the dugout.
Brennan had a .372 OPS vs. lefties in the regular season -- albeit in only 35 plate appearances since the Guards almost never used him in those situations -- while Noel had a .969 OPS against southpaws and packs much more power.
How it played out: Noel fell into an 0-2 count then flew out on a pitch away and outside, his first out in an 0-for-4 day, and the Guards came away empty after Bo Naylor followed with a flyout. Way later on, Naylor was pinch-hit for with one out in the seventh by Angel Martínez, who was then replaced in the bottom of the frame by the only righty bench bat remaining -- .152-hitter Austin Hedges -- who eventually made the game’s final out.
What they said: “You want to help impact the team. But that was the best move for the team right there.” -- Brennan
Another early pinch-hitter
Top of 3rd inning, one out, runner on 2B
Kyle Manzardo was in a similar situation to Brennan, but he at least took one at-bat because he was in the two-hole. The lefty-hitting DH was also almost never used against southpaws this season, with a .566 OPS in 20 regular season plate appearances. He, too, was set to face Hurter before Vogt installed righty David Fry.
How it played out: Fry, who had an .869 OPS with runners in scoring position, froze on a backdoor sweeper for a strikeout. Hinch then intentionally walked José Ramírez to create a force, then Hurter induced a weak grounder for the third out vs. Josh Naylor. Fry went on to punch out again in the fifth, then hit a Statcast-projected 102 mph, tough-luck liner that Matt Vierling snagged for the third out in the seventh. Overall, four of Cleveland’s six K’s came via the bench.
What they said: “It's kind of something we prepared for, and obviously with playoffs, and especially the way they're kind of throwing out their bullpen, they're obviously going for a lot of matchups. And that was part of the plan, staying ready early.” -- Fry
Brieske’s breakthrough
Top of 5th inning, one out, runners on 1B/2B
Fry’s highest-stakes at-bat might’ve been in the fifth. With the Guardians threatening, Hinch called on his top reliever, Beau Brieske, who got out of the jam created by Hurter by getting Fry to chase on a turbo slider low for strike three before including an easy flyout to Ramírez.
How it played out: Had Manzardo remained in the game earlier, Hinch would’ve been forced to either keep a tiring Hurter in to face Manzardo, or more likely turn to another lefty reliever, at which point Vogt could’ve then installed Fry, who had a .996 OPS vs. lefties in the regular season. Instead, Fry, who had a .676 OPS vs. righties, lost a matchup vs. Detroit’s highest-leverage reliever, which was easily the loudest moment on a day that Comerica Park drew its largest postseason crowd ever. And for good measure, Brieske threw a hitless sixth inning after that.
What they said: “In a perfect world, I'd love to bring these guys in, clean inning, big lead, deep breath and attack guys that they can match up with, and that never happens, especially in October.” -- Hinch
Vogt believed that the game’s highest-leverage situations manifested in those early innings, and with his team on the road on the heels of being shut out in Game 2, he wanted to capitalize. But his bets backfired, set up Hinch to operate with the upper hand -- and put the series in the Tigers’ hands.
“When you're playing from behind,” Vogt said, “the other team has the opportunity to get you handcuffed. … I thought we did a great job setting the table. We just weren't able to come up with a big hit.”