Rays' No. 2 prospect among Tampa Bay's Arizona Fall League crew

October 14th, 2024

Xavier Isaac went to high school in North Carolina, was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays, played his Spring Training on the Gulf Coast of Florida and called Charleston, Bowling Green and Montgomery home during his Minor League time.

The left-handed slugger, who possesses arguably the best raw power in this year’s Arizona Fall League, is just getting comfortable in his new desert environment. So if you’re considering parking near a ballpark in the area, keep your distance for the sake of your windshield.

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“It’s very easy to hit out here,” Isaac said at AFL Media Day on Oct. 4. “I hit yesterday for the first time with Major League balls and thin air ... I don’t know why guys don’t come out here and get their confidence hitting the ball out here. I love it. I can’t wait.”

Slotted at No. 36 overall on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, the 20-year-old is one of the best prospects in this year’s Fall League crop. Once a surprise 29th overall pick in 2022, Isaac has delivered patience (career .380 on-base percentage) and plus-plus pop (.497 slugging) in his first two full seasons. His loud exit velocities thrust him up rankings and had some Rays officials placing him in the same prospect echelon as the graduated Junior Caminero and current No. 4 overall talent Carson Williams, despite the fact Isaac plays the non-premium position of first base.

But that profile took a hit late in 2024 after the left-handed slugger was promoted to Double-A Montgomery for the first time in early August. Isaac struck out in 40.6 percent of his plate appearances over 31 regular-season games in the Southern League, giving him the fourth-highest K rate in Double-A (min. 130 PA). It wasn’t an issue isolated to one pitch type either. Per Synergy Sports, Isaac whiffed on more than 34 percent of his swings against fastballs, sliders, curveballs, changeups and cutters.

Isaac admitted it’ll take more of a mental adjustment to bring the punchouts down than a physical one.

“They attack you differently,” he said. “Whatever you think that they're attacking you [with], it’s probably the opposite. It was like a cat-and-mouse game to me at first, and I was going into their pitching and not sticking to my plan pretty much. I was chasing, getting out of my plan. It’s the same pitching -- just a little bit better and around the zone. But if I stick to my approach, I should be the guy I am.”

Beyond additional exposure to experienced arms in the Fall League, Isaac will also get more defensive work in the corner outfield spots. He and No. 10 Tampa Bay prospect Tre’ Morgan both finished out the season with Montgomery, highlighting how they’re on similar tracks to St. Petersburg as first basemen. Morgan -- a true plus-plus defender at first -- has more experience on the grass, but Isaac has shown improved athleticism in the pros, raising Tampa Bay’s hopes that he could at least be competent at a new position.

It’s a common competition in a good farm system like Tampa Bay’s, where wood sharpens wood in the box and leather sharpens leather in the field.

“We’re both here for a job,” Isaac said, “and I’m here to get better.”

Arizona Fall League overviews:
ALE: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
ALC: CLE | CWS | DET | KC | MIN
ALW: HOU | LAA | OAK | SEA | TEX
NLE: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NLC: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NLW: AZ | COL | LAD | SD | SF

Rays hitters in the Fall League

Tre’ Morgan, 1B/OF (No. 10): Taken in the third round as a glove-first, hit-over-power first baseman out of LSU last year, Morgan broke out across Single-A, High-A and Double-A in his first full season, finishing eighth among full-season Minor Leaguers with a .324 average and tied for third with a 158 wRC+. He also produced an even 48/48 K/BB ratio and slotted in 11th with an 11.0 percent strikeout rate. After hitting 10 homers, Morgan could still stand to show more power for the cold corner, if he doesn’t land full-time in the corner outfield.

Mac Horvath, 3B/2B (No. 19): The Rays love toolsy prospects, and in a Zach Eflin deal at the Deadline, they picked up one in Horvath, a second-round pick last year out of UNC. The right-handed slugger has at least above-average power that plays in games because he tends to pull the ball in the air, and his plus speed is a weapon on the basepaths. He can run into issues making contact, as he did with Bowling Green after the trade (34.6 percent), and that will be an AFL focus, as will his defense as he’s seen time on the dirt and briefly in the corner outfield spots in pro ball.

Rays pitchers in the Fall League

Alexander Alberto, RHP: Listed at 6-foot-8, Alberto is one of the tallest Fall Leaguers this year. He’s coming off his best season as a pro, posting a 2.67 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings between the Florida Complex League and Single-A Charleston (where he joined a full-season affiliate for the first time). The 22-year-old can touch triple-digits and plays off the heater with a strong slider but needs to show improved control ahead of a Rule 5 decision this offseason.

Derrick Edington, RHP: Another 6-foot-8 arm, Edington went undrafted out of Division II Davenport in 2022 and spent time in the independent United Shore and Frontier Leagues before signing with the Rays back in May. The bulk of his work came at High-A, where he had a 5.92 ERA with 27 strikeouts and nine walks in 24 1/3 innings. He was much better late (3.71 ERA, 22 K, 2 BB in 17 IP from July onward), and like Alberto, he can work in the upper-90s with his four-seamer to make the most of his size.

T.J. Fondtain, LHP: Fondtain was named the Mountain West Pitcher of the Year in 2023 but fastball velocity in the upper-80s caused the San Diego State ace to fall to the 14th round. He has moved primarily to the bullpen in the Tampa Bay system and added a few ticks to his heater, leading to a 3.38 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 61 1/3 innings at Bowling Green. He has the changeup to hold off righty splits issues and throws enough strikes to return him to a starting role, should he impress in the desert.

Jack Hartman, RHP: Hartman was acquired in a straight-up swap with the Pirates for Ji-Man Choi in November 2022, not long after he had fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. The 26-year-old right-hander finally broke through to Double-A this season, and he finished with a 3.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in 16 2/3 frames for Montgomery, where he showed a 95-97 mph fastball and upper-80s slider.

Jackson Lancaster, LHP: Lancaster was yet another indy-ball find. After spending 2022 with Ogden in the Pioneer League, he signed with the Rays in April of the following year and climbed to High-A this season. His 5.59 ERA with Bowling Green may not pop off the page, but his 42 strikeouts in 29 innings certainly do. Lancaster ranked fourth among 606 High-A pitchers (min. 20 IP) with his 21.1 percent swinging-strike rate because of his ability to play up with the fastball and away with the slider against lefties. His righty splits (.511 slugging, .854 OPS in 2024) will need improvement.