With newfound playing time, 'consistency' key for Arias
CLEVELAND -- Consistency. It’s the word that will inevitably come up when Guardians manager Terry Francona talks about Gabriel Arias' bat.
There are flashes of potential that the Guardians knew Arias had from the moment they dealt starter Mike Clevinger for him in a nine-player trade in 2020. His night during Cleveland's 9-3 loss to the Dodgers -- following a 6-1 loss earlier in the day, which was the completion of Wednesday's suspended game -- at Progressive Field was a good example.
Arias’ first at-bat in the regularly scheduled game resulted in a single up the middle. After he moved to third base on a single by Will Brennan, the Guardians got lucky when Brennan was caught in a rundown between first and second base, allowing Arias to score from third while Brennan reached second safely.
“I thought we were very fortunate,” Francona said. “Arias did a very good job to score, because we're hung up there. Somebody's going to be out, and that's not really what we're looking to do there.”
But Arias was aware enough to find his way home, plating the Guardians' first run of the game, which gave them a second-inning lead. The next inning, Arias pulled a soft single down the left-field line for his second hit of the game. After a strikeout in the fifth, Arias unleashed a 425-foot solo homer into the trees well beyond the center-field wall in the eighth for his eighth long ball of the season.
When the Guardians traded for Arias, he was one of six players (including Austin Hedges, Cal Quantrill, Josh Naylor, Joey Cantillo and Owen Miller) in the haul coming back to Cleveland. At that time, Arias was a highly-touted prospect who experts thought had the highest ceiling of anyone involved in the deal.
MLB Pipeline projected that he could be a powerful shortstop, hitting 25-30 home runs a season. But those experts also said he’d need to make adjustments at the plate and reduce the number of weak ground balls he’d hit in order to get there.
It’s clear he’s far from the finished product. The Guardians just now need to determine how long it’ll take for the young 23-year-old infielder to reach his potential.
Part of the problem for Arias the last two seasons was opportunity (or the lack thereof). But the reason the Guardians traded shortstop Amed Rosario to the Dodgers was to get guys like Arias on the field more frequently in order to see what they can do when they’re given everyday at-bats. If Rosario wasn't the future, Cleveland needed to determine who could be.
But even after Rosario’s departure, the Guardians still had Arias, Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio to shuffle through in the middle infield. Plus, with Naylor on the injured list, the Guardians have needed to use Arias a little more at first base than they’d probably like at this point in the season.
But now that Rocchio was sent to Triple-A Columbus after catcher Cam Gallagher was activated from the injured list, that only means more playing time for Arias.
There’s never been a question about Arias’ glove. It’s often the reason Francona lists as to why the organization wants so badly for his bat to come alive. It’s an asset, and if his offense can match his defense, the Guardians could start to dream of what type of player he could turn into.
So far, he’s struggled to deliver results. But in his limited time in the Majors (and it is a small sample size), he’s at least shown some signs of progression.
Although Arias went 9-for-47 in 2022 (.191) and has hit just .209 so far this season, the concerns MLB Pipeline experts had are starting to move in the right direction. His ground ball rate dropped from 71.9% in ‘22 to 52.6% entering Thursday.
His weak contact percentage dropped from 9.4% in ‘22 to 6.8% this year. Although he’s making his own strides, it’s still far below the MLB average (44.7% ground ball rate; 3.9% weak contact rate).
Whether Arias ends up being the everyday shortstop in 2024 and beyond for the Guardians remains to be seen. But now, especially with Rocchio not competing with him and Freeman for innings, Arias has the opportunity to prove what he can do. He’s just going to need a handful of more nights like Thursday. Or, in simpler terms: Consistency.
“The consistency is going to be the biggest thing,” Francona said of Arias. “He squared that ball up and that ball had plenty to get out. There’s a lot in there. … When it comes out, that’s what we’re waiting for.”