Free Agent Matrix: Which teams will land Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon?
Now that the free agent period is underway, our friends at Cespedes Family BBQ are here to help us predict madness of player movement. They were kind enough to create helpful cheat sheets that can aid us in figuring out where the big names might call home for the 2017 season. Today's players:
The 2016 postseason taught us two things:
From BrittonGate, to Kenley Jansen's 3,000-pitch outing, against the Nats, to Aroldis Meltdown 2K16, to skinny baseballing cyborg
Sure, there are some differences between the three top-line free agent relief pitchers: Mark Melancon certainly doesn't have the raw stuff that Jansen and Chapman possess, and the strikeout numbers back that argument up. Plus, Melancon is two years older. But in terms of run prevention, those three guys have been dominant to a strikingly similar degree.
Here's how they've each performed since the start of the 2013 season:
Jansen: 263 IP, 2.19 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 155 saves
Chapman: 242 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 143 saves
Melancon: 290 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.914 WHIP, 147 saves
Melancon will probably get a slightly shorter deal and a bit less money, but for the sake of simplicity, we're going to create a megabeast reliever called "MarKenRoldis MelJanMan" and analyze the market for Mr. MelJanMan accordingly.
Deal with it.
Coming at you like a dark horse:
These teams aren't the front-runners, but would make a lot of sense to go after MelJanMan:
BOS: Boston's payroll makes them perpetual players in the luxury aisle of the free-agent market. However, they already have a dynamite back-end arm in
ARI: Last year's win-now offseason didn't go quite as planned. But, with a new front office and the same impressive core, the D-backs clearly still want to compete sooner rather than later. And on a roster filled with several elite position players and a herd of promising young arms behind Zach Greinke, the bullpen is by far their biggest weakness.
DET: The Tigers don't have all that much in the bullpen beyond K-Rod (who's getting older), but this feels like more of a landing spot for a Joe Blanton-type. (That's a compliment now).
LAA: The Angels already announced that
CWS: The South Siders' bullpen was underwhelming in 2016, but this doesn't seem like much of a fit unless they want Jansen to come play catcher. If anything,
PHI:
Closer incoming (The favorites):
Five teams. Three closers. Who's gonna come up empty-handed?
NYY: The Yankees already have a powerful, mountainesque reliever in
CHC: The Cubs may not be as desperate as the other teams in this group, because the rest of their bullpen is already in decent shape.
LAD: There is much debate surrounding which of the Dodgers' three premier free agents is most important for the team to bring back long-term -- Jansen, third baseman
WAS: A few great months of Melancon only got the Nationals as far as the Fightin' Kershaws and Kenleys were willing to let them go. Now, Washington enters the offseason with a decent sized hole at the back of the bullpen. They have a ton of young guys who you could envision in the 9th inning -- top prospects
SFG: Even-year magic couldn't survive 2016, and the Giants' bullpen definitely shoulders some of that blame. The team was three outs away from pushing the Cubs to a Game 5 in the NLDS until its bullpen completely imploded and the Cubs snuck out of San Francisco with a series victory. With
Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman are the founders of Cespedes Family BBQ. You can follow them on Twitter at @CespedesBBQ.