Ranking the starting pitchers on playoff contenders
Starting pitchers may not dominate the postseason the way they once did, but the best of the best still make a huge impact on who reaches the World Series -- and who ends the season by hoisting a trophy.
Last October, the combination of right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Jordan Montgomery started 11 of the Rangers’ 17 playoff games (plus one relief appearance). They went 8-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 67 2/3 innings, and Texas won 10 of the 12 games in which they appeared on the way to the first championship in franchise history.
Which starters will write the story of this October? That remains to be seen, but for now, our MLB.com panel voted on a postseason edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings. Only those in the rotations of contending teams were eligible for this list, and a combination of career track record, 2024 performance and recent success was considered. Here are the results.
(All stats are through Tuesday’s games.)
1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
There were 12 regular-season editions of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, and Skubal finished in the top spot twice as many times (four) as anyone else. The left-hander isn’t slowing down, either. His second-half ERA (2.37) is a virtual match to his first-half ERA (2.41), and he’s been even better in September (1.52) as the Tigers have completed a surge from Trade Deadline seller to being in playoff position. In the biggest start of his career on Tuesday afternoon, Skubal held the Rays scoreless on two hits over seven innings in a 2-1 Detroit victory that improved his record to 18-4. His postseason debut could come next.
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Prior to 2022, Wheeler had never pitched in the postseason. Two deep Phillies runs later, he is a proven October performer, with a 2.42 ERA over 11 games (10 starts). This year, the 34-year-old seems to be peaking at the right time to help Philly grab the ring that eluded the club in 2022 and ‘23. Wheeler owns a 1.80 ERA, 2.39 FIP and .538 opponent OPS in 10 starts since the beginning of August, never allowing more than two runs in a game in that span.
3. Chris Sale, Braves
Although Sale’s October history includes throwing the pitch that closed out the 2018 World Series for Boston, his overall postseason track record is not stellar. Then again, this is shaping up as a surprising year of firsts for the 14-year veteran. Sale is in line to lead his league in wins (18) and ERA (2.38) for the first time in his career, and his long-awaited Cy Young Award seems assured. Perhaps he will add his first great playoff run to the list. Of course, that’s assuming that Sale’s Braves can fight their way into the bracket despite a crushing litany of injuries that has them in a precarious position.
4. Framber Valdez, Astros
Valdez is only 30, but he’s already fifth among active pitchers in postseason innings (80 2/3), with a real shot to move into the lead in the near future. (The top three are Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, with Gerrit Cole fourth.) Valdez’s October results have been a mixed bag, including some brilliance (3-0, 1.44 ERA during Houston’s 2022 title run) and some struggles (0-3, 9.00 last year). But the lefty looks primed to turn the tables again in 2024, with a 1.96 ERA and 0.89 WHIP since the All-Star break.
5. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
Baltimore expected a true No. 1 starter when it traded significant young talent for Burnes this past winter. At 15-8 with a 2.95 ERA over 31 starts, the veteran righty certainly has delivered, including with a 1.08 ERA in four September outings and back-to-back scoreless victories over the Tigers. Entering the postseason with a banged-up rotation, the O’s will need Burnes more than ever, and a strong October performance will only serve to burnish his free-agent appeal heading into the offseason.
6. Dylan Cease, Padres
Speaking of major offseason trade acquisitions who have come through for new teams, we have Cease. The deal has worked out perfectly for both the Padres (who lost Blake Snell to free agency) and Cease (who escaped the White Sox situation). The right-hander had posted a 3.47 ERA and 224 strikeouts over 33 starts for San Diego, through Wednesday night’s matchup against the Dodgers. Prior to that start, he turned in back-to-back scoreless outings to help the club’s postseason push.
7. Gerrit Cole, Yankees
An elbow injury cost Cole the first two and a half months of the season, and even when he returned, it’s fair to say the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner was not quite in peak form. Over his past nine starts, however, Cole has a 2.53 ERA and 2.68 FIP, averaging just over a strikeout per inning and limiting opponents to a .535 OPS. Last Friday at Oakland, he held the A’s to one run on two hits over nine innings, his first time going more than six frames this season. The timing could be right for some postseason heroics.
8. Michael King, Padres
On Tuesday night, King went on the road and held the Dodgers to one unearned run. In other words, he continued doing what he has rather quietly been doing for months now, after getting off to a rough start for San Diego following his involvement in the Juan Soto trade. In 24 starts since May 1, King has a 2.42 ERA. He has allowed no more than two earned runs in eight straight outings and 20 of 24 in that span. King’s only postseason experience came in a two-inning relief appearance for the Yankees in the 2020 ALDS, but he will figure much more prominently into the Padres’ October plans in 2024.
9. Sean Manaea, Mets
Manaea has some postseason demons to exorcise. In three career playoff appearances (starts for the 2019 and ‘20 A’s and a relief outing for the 2022 Padres), he has allowed 13 earned runs on 13 hits (including six homers) over 7 2/3 innings and took the loss in each one. But this is a new version of Manaea we’re seeing now. The 6-foot-5 lefty, who made some Sale-inspired adjustments to his delivery, has come up huge for the surging Mets down the stretch. He owns a 2.76 ERA in 19 starts since June 14, with 123 strikeouts over 117 1/3 innings, and New York has gone 16-3 in those games, including eight straight victories.
10. Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, Royals
These two teammates who have helped drive Kansas City’s surprising playoff push are, fittingly, tied for the last spot in our top 10. Both are big reasons why, from 2023 to ‘24, the Royals have jumped from 27th to second in the Majors in starting pitcher ERA. Ragans delivered his latest gem in a big spot on Tuesday night, tossing six scoreless innings in a much-needed 1-0 win at Washington, dropping his ERA to 3.14 as K.C. snapped a seven-game skid. Lugo (16-9, 3.03 ERA) leads the Majors in innings pitched and has finished strong, with a 2.45 September ERA.
If the Royals’ run is going to continue into (perhaps even deep into) October, despite a thin lineup outside of Bobby Witt Jr., then some more stellar performances from this duo will be crucial.
Others receiving votes: Logan Gilbert (Mariners), Joe Musgrove (Padres), Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies), Hunter Brown (Astros), Jack Flaherty (Dodgers), Zach Eflin (Orioles), Aaron Nola (Phillies), Bryce Miller (Mariners), Freddy Peralta (Brewers), Yusei Kikuchi (Astros), Pablo López (Twins), Tanner Bibee (Guardians), Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves), George Kirby (Mariners)