Roundtable: Who's got the edge in Game 3?
With the World Series knotted up, 1-1, our MLB.com crew gathered in Atlanta to preview the upcoming three days and assess where the Astros and Braves stand in the best-of-seven series.
As we move into the Atlanta portion of the World Series, taking into consideration everything -- the Charlie Morton injury, how the pitchers on both teams have fared so far -- who might have the advantage? The series is tied, but do you think one team might have an edge?
Brian McTaggart, Astros beat reporter: I think it’s hard to say right now. We should know a lot more after Game 3. If Luis Garcia doesn’t pitch relatively deep into that game, the Astros’ bullpen could be pushed hard for three games in a row, especially considering Game 4 could be a bullpen game. That’s troublesome for Houston. Astros relief pitching has been terrific in the playoffs despite the heavy workload, and if they can keep that up, Houston will be in good shape. The key in Game 3 for the Astros will be saving Jake Odorizzi for Game 4.
Mark Bowman, Braves beat reporter: I don’t think we’ll see an advantage until Ian Anderson completes his Game 3 start. If Anderson gets into the sixth inning or beyond, he will lessen the load on a bullpen that could be heavily taxed this weekend. Atlanta will have to roll the dice with bullpen games in Games 4 and 5. So, given the Braves don’t know what to expect from Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson or some other young, unproven pitchers who may be needed this weekend, there’s an even greater importance for Anderson to give the team a shot to win Friday.
Castrovince, MLB.com reporter: Considering I picked the Astros to win this Series in seven and the Braves have since lost one of their best starters, I have no choice but to say Houston has the edge. It could very well be that Atlanta losing Morton affects it no more than the Astros were affected by the October loss of Lance McCullers Jr. But it’s going to be fascinating to see how Brian Snitker utilizes his bullpen in Game 3 if Anderson (like so any other postseason starters before him this season) can’t go deep into the game, knowing he’s got bullpen games on tap for Game 4 and 5 (unless Max Fried comes back on short rest). No doubt, the Astros have pitching complications of their own, but, if nothing else, they haven’t had to adjust their plans on the fly like Atlanta has.
Let’s dive into the pitching a little more. Obviously, the Morton injury is crushing for the Braves, because they have to add another bullpen game to the docket (they were already planning for one). Brian Snitker said after Game 2 they were going to need the entire roster, and the ‘pen is going to have to pick up a lot of innings. Can they pull this off?
Bowman: Considering the workloads Tyler Matzek and A.J. Minter already have endured this postseason, the Braves are racing against the clock. But with this being said, not being within four runs at any point after Wednesday’s second inning allowed Matzek, Minter, Luke Jackson and Will Smith to get a night off. These four primarily high-leverage guys will have two days of rest entering Friday. Yeah, Atlanta can do this. But the Braves need a good start from Anderson and possibly another good one from Fried in Game 6. Between, it wouldn't hurt for Minter to log another of his two- or three-inning gems.
Castrovince: Wright could provide the answer to that question. He’s a former first-round Draft pick that just hasn’t been able to put it together with consistency and maintain his command. But the Braves still believe in his talent. And after making 26 starts this season (24 at Triple-A Gwinnett), he’s stretched out enough to perhaps give them some length. The one positive that came out of Game 2 for the Braves was Wright striking out the side in the eighth.
The Astros lost Game 1, but they were in full command in Game 2. Their offense runs hot and cold, and when you get this far into the postseason, one bad game (Game 1) can look like more than it actually is. What do you think we’ll see in the next three games -- the Astros from Game 1, or the Astros from Game 2?
McTaggart: I still think the best is yet to come for the Astros' offense. They were shut down in Game 1, which has been rare in the playoffs, and their seven-run output in Game 2 was against their DNA. They put together a bunch of singles in the second inning of Game 2 and pushed across four runs. At some point, I think the offense is going to break out, but it starts with Jose Altuve. He showed signs of coming out of his funk in Game 2 with a homer and a double. Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa have struggled big-time in the first two games, and I don’t see that continuing, either.
Castrovince: I’ll always defer to the mashing, bashing Astros making an appearance. This is the best offense in baseball, and, as we saw in Game 2, it’s hard to keep it down for long. The Braves’ bullpen is extremely lefty-oriented, and the Astros have a .306/.368/.471 slash in this postseason against lefties.
Now that we’re in a National League city, both teams lose the DH options they used in Games 1 and 2. This would seem more problematic for the AL team, obviously. How much will this hurt the Astros, or help the Braves?
McTaggart: The Astros will move DH Yordan Alvarez to left field, which means Michael Brantley will move from left to right and Kyle Tucker from right to center. That still allows Houston to have its seven most productive hitters in the lineup, along with catcher Martín Maldonado. The Astros will lose at-bats from center fielders Chas McCormick or Jose Siri, but they typically hit eighth in a full-strength lineup anyway. The club has a versatile five-man bench and a manager who spent more than 20 years managing in the NL before coming to Houston, so it won’t be caught flat-footed.
Bowman: Expect to see Jorge Soler back in right field. It’s hard to take Joc Pederson out of the mix during the postseason, but he hasn’t been swinging the bat well lately. Plus, he has proven Joctober can still be celebrated when he is pinch-hitting.
Castrovince: It does hurt the Astros, no doubt. (And let’s acknowledge here that it’s possible this is the last time we’ll have one of these conversations ... and the last time we’ll have to watch pitchers strike out in big spots in the World Series, thank goodness.) Houston has a tough call between prioritizing offense or defense. On one hand, how do you take Brantley or Alvarez out of the lineup right now? On the other hand, keeping those guys in the corners means moving Kyle Tucker to center field, where he’s barely played, and leaving yourself vulnerable in the outfield. The Astros might be better off using McCormick or Siri in center and saving Brantley’s bat for pinch-hit pursuits.
The general consensus among people who opine on baseball this time of year is that this year’s World Series matchup might be the most evenly matched we’ve seen in a while. Do we still feel that way?
McTaggart: So far, I think that’s true. The Astros have outscored the Braves by one run in the first two games and have been outhit by two. And both teams are going to rely heavily on their bullpens during the middle three games in Atlanta. Houston has yet to exploit the advantages it had over the Braves coming into the series, primarily the bat of shortstop Correa.
Bowman: Yeah, part of that evenly matched argument is strengthened with the limited starting pitching that exists on both rosters. Morton seemed to be a potential difference-maker entering this series. With him out, you have two pitching staffs that will rely heavily on their relief corps. The Astros' offense has a ton of firepower. But if the Braves can get some production from Travis d'Arnaud and Dansby Swanson at the bottom of the lineup, it will become harder to argue that Houston has the better lineup.
Castrovince: It’s a 1-1 Series with a run differential of plus-1 for the Astros. I’d say we’re off to a pretty even start! I remain as clueless as to what will happen next as I was before we started, and that’s just the way I like it.
At MLB.com, we love making predictions. So let’s do one here. Over the next three games, the results will be:
A) Braves win two of three
B) Astros win two of three
C) Braves win all three
D) Astros win all three
McTaggart: B. I picked the Astros in six, and I’ll stick with that. They’ll win two of three in Atlanta and close it out at home. Houston’s playoff-experienced crew is unflappable on the road.
Bowman: A. As I’ve said previously, nothing comes easy for Atlanta’s sports teams. This series will return to Houston and with a dramatic comeback in Game 7, the Braves will kill the haunting memories of Chris Burke’s homer or the 28-3 lead one Atlanta sports team once squandered in that great Texas town.
Castrovince: B. Garcia will be good again in Game 3, the Braves will piece it together with the ‘pen in Game 4, and the Astros will summon all the power associated with wearing orange on Halloween to take Game 5 and head home with a chance to clinch. Of course, all of that is weather permitting!