Wheeler builds Cy Young case, puts Phils 1 win shy of playoff berth

MILWAUKEE -- Zack Wheeler felt crummy coming out of the bullpen on Tuesday at American Family Field because he felt he had a "crappy" fastball.

His words, of course.

But Cy Young-caliber pitchers don’t panic. They move forward. In this case, Wheeler stepped onto the mound in the first inning and discovered that he had a really, really good fastball. So he threw it more than had thrown it in any start in more than a year, propelling the Phillies to a 5-1 victory over the Brewers and cutting the Phils’ magic number to clinch the NL East to four with 11 games to play.

They can clinch a postseason berth with a win on Wednesday.

“He’s a Cy Young, man,” Bryce Harper said. “I don’t think anybody in baseball is better than him at this point. I don’t think anybody is in the National League, either. The people down in Atlanta probably think the same thing about the guy throwing down there [Chris Sale], but I thought [Wheeler] got robbed of it three years ago. I believe he earned it this year.”

Wheeler improved to 16-6 with a 2.56 ERA. He threw 19 consecutive fastballs to start the game, finally throwing Jake Bauers a first-pitch curveball with one out in the second inning. He threw 76 fastballs out of 99 pitches (76.8 percent) overall, his highest percentage of fastballs in a start since Sept. 6, 2023.

“I’m glad it felt good out there because it didn’t feel good in the bullpen,” Wheeler said. “I was hoping that it was one of those games where you feel crappy out there, then you change it and do well in the game. It was one of those days for me, but it ended up working out.”

Wheeler’s fastball averaged 95.5 mph, up a tick from his season average. He struck out Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio swinging on a 97.0 mph fastball in the fourth inning.

It was Wheeler’s third-hardest pitch in the fourth inning or later this season.

"That always feels a little more dominant when he's just saying, 'Here it is,'” Brewers designated hitter Rhys Hoskins said. “But he's just so good at staying out of the middle. When he misses, he misses where he wants to. With that kind of stuff, hitting becomes exponentially more difficult."

“It’s fun to pitch with your fastball,” Wheeler said.

Sale is considered the favorite for NL Cy Young. He is 17-3 with a 2.35 ERA. He has more strikeouts and fewer walks than Wheeler. He has the edge in modern metrics like wins above replacement and win probability added, per Baseball Reference. But Wheeler is right behind Sale in those measurables. He bests him in others, like WHIP, innings pitched and quality starts.

Wheeler’s Cy Young case is built on quality and durability.

He has 24 quality starts, compared to Sale’s 18. He has thrown six-plus innings 24 times, compared to Sale’s 19. He has thrown 186 2/3 innings, compared to Sale’s 172 2/3 frames. He is 5-1 with a 1.41 ERA (eight earned runs in 51 innings) against NL postseason contenders like the Dodgers, Brewers, D-backs and Braves. (He has not faced the Padres or Mets.) Sale is 5-0 with a 2.44 ERA (14 earned runs in 51 2/3 innings) against the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, D-backs, Padres and Mets.

Wheeler has not allowed more than two runs in a start since July 29, when he allowed seven against the Yankees. It was his ninth consecutive start of six or more innings, while the Phillies have won 34 consecutive games when their starter pitches seven or more innings.

Wheeler’s effort might have been wasted, if Harper hadn’t launched a towering two-run homer to left-center field in the sixth inning. It was Harper’s third homer in four games, and it gave the Phillies a two-run lead.

“Just a pretty fired up situation,” Harper said.

If the Phillies win Wednesday night’s series finale in Milwaukee, or if the Braves lose in Cincinnati, they will clinch a postseason berth. It is not the ultimate goal. They want to win the division, then they want to clinch home-field advantage throughout the postseason. But they will acknowledge it whenever it happens. It just won’t be the typical champagne-soaked celebration.

“I think we’ll do a little something, but the division is the deal,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “We’re not there yet, but we’re getting close. We’ll do a little something because it’s an accomplishment getting in the playoffs in this league. It really is. To me, it’s a bigger accomplishment to win this division, because there are so many good teams. Not many teams get in. You think you get in one year and you think we’ll get in every year, but it doesn’t happen. So you’ve got to work at it.”