Kikuchi keeps rotation afloat despite homers

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

If a genie appeared in Dunedin, Fla., this spring and offered the Blue Jays a 4.08 ERA from Yusei Kikuchi, they would have strained a muscle saying “Yes” so quickly.

The Japanese left-hander has been one of the better stories of the Blue Jays’ season, and like Ross Stripling did a year ago, he’s saving this organization from having to reach into its depth. Frankly, there isn’t much to reach for.

What we’re seeing from Kikuchi, though, is not an improved version of his 2022 self. There’s been a reinvention of sorts, bringing with it new strengths and weaknesses. One squeaky wheel that’s stuck around is home runs, which might be the final hurdle between Kikuchi either breaking through completely or continuing to deal with some inconsistencies.

Kikuchi has allowed 12 home runs, tying him for the fifth-most in MLB.

It’s a fine balance, because Kikuchi is finally in the strike zone, something that eluded him entirely at points in 2022. These home runs are the danger of being there.

“I’ve been continuing to attack the zone and sometimes when you attack the zone, you get hit,” Kikuchi said through a club interpreter. “We’ll go back and check the data and all of that, but I’ll continue to attack the zone moving forward.”

It’s not all bad, either. Kikuchi’s improved walk rate means that far fewer of these home runs are three-run shots.

Just look back to Robbie Ray in 2021, when he won the Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays. Ray, another hard-throwing lefty, allowed the fifth-most home runs in MLB that season (33) -- many of them solo shots as he stubbornly pounded the zone and believed that his best pitch would beat their best swing. More often than not, it did.

“It’s never black and white, but I do personally think that mindset is one to have,” general manager Ross Atkins said. “For me, that is much easier to live with, especially when there’s nobody on base.”

Even if Kikuchi stayed on this exact pace, the Blue Jays would take the results happily. There have been inconsistencies, like his four walks against the Orioles on Friday that resembled his 2022 season more than ’23, but there’s still a shred of upside with Kikuchi that can be so tantalizing. It’s why the Blue Jays handed him $36 million over three years in '22 despite a career ERA of 4.97 at the time.

Kikuchi looks like he could be picked up and put in Alek Manoah’s shirt pocket, but he somehow throws harder than the big man. Kikuchi’s fastball averages 95.2 mph, often reaching up to 97 mph, the result of an athletic delivery that gets every ounce of power out of his body.

“He’s been on the plate, and he’s been aggressive in the zone with three pitches,” Atkins said. “There are really two shapes to his breaking ball, so four pitches. The athleticism and the durability are playing out, and we’re getting to see what that means for a starting pitcher. When you’re athletic and durable, you have an opportunity to improve and make adjustments. He’s certainly done that. He’s earned it.”

The Blue Jays need him to keep earning it, too.

Eventually, former ace Hyun Jin Ryu could work his way back from Tommy John surgery and be a factor. He’s been targeting a July return, and the Blue Jays are optimistic he could face hitters in June. No. 1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann could still push for his debut in 2023, too, after he recovers from a left biceps injury.

Both involve some hope, though, and with no starter at Triple-A currently forcing the issue, the Blue Jays’ rotation depth isn’t encouraging.

Just by keeping the No. 5 job safe, Kikuchi has saved the Blue Jays from opening a door they’d rather not. There’s still room for more, though, if he can find the sweet spot between challenging hitters and keeping the ball in the yard.