Youth movements and base thieves: Previewing the Brewers showdown with the Reds

While the All-Star break is still just a few days away, we’ve officially reached the second half of games on the schedule.

Through 87 games, the top of the NL Central is neck-and-neck, with the Reds leading the Brewers by two games. The Crew has the chance to close that gap, though, with the two teams facing off in six straight games – they meet both going in and coming out of the All-Star break – a stretch that could prove pivotal as the race continues to unfold in the second half.

Here’s what to watch for during this must-see divisional matchup.

Youth Movements Facing Off

The Brewers investment in their current batch of rookies is well-documented, with both outfielder Joey Wiemer and second baseman Brice Turang playing critical roles up the middle. But the Brewers aren’t the only NL Central team with an impressive crop of rookies – the Reds boast one of the league’s most-exciting young cores as well.

The conversation begins with Elly De La Cruz, MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 prospect and one of the great Statcast phenoms in the game. The 6’5” infielder has wowed the baseball universe with his 100th percentile sprint speed, 98th percentile exit velocity and 98th percentile arm strength. Those qualities have led to immediate production – including an .892 OPS, 14 extra-base hits, 11 stolen bases, and even a cycle in just 26 games.

While De La Cruz rightfully captures headlines, he’s joined by some of the game’s other top rookies in infielders Matt McLain and Spencer Steer and pitcher Andrew Abbott. McLain has turned heads since being called up in May, accumulating 59 hits, seven homers and an .894 OPS over just 46 games, while Steer has cranked 14 bombs of his own to go along with an .881 OPS. Meanwhile, Abbott has stifled opponents to the tune of a 1.21 ERA and 10.1 K/9 over his first six starts as a Big Leaguer.

On top of high divisional stakes, the group of young talent on the field makes this series a must-watch matchup.

Chaos on the Basepaths

MLB expressed its hope for an increase in activity on the basepaths when it upgraded the size of its bases this offseason. And few teams have taken the league up on that promise quite like the Reds.

Through 87 games, the Reds lead the National League with 105 steals, and it isn’t particularly close – the Diamondbacks sit second with 85.

The Reds have a plethora of speedsters on the roster, including four players with double-digit steals already: TJ Friedl (16), Jake Fraley (16), Jonathan India (12) and De La Cruz (11). Their aggressiveness has been rewarded with more than just a lofty steals total: they’ve been successful on a healthy 81 percent of their attempts.

With the Reds taking liberties on the bases, it will be up to William Contreras, Victor Caratini and the pitching staff to hold them in check. So far, the Brewers have struggled to throw out base thieves this season, catching just 14 of 85 runners (16%) so far this season.

Don’t be surprised if the Reds test the Brewers early and often on the basepaths.

Brewers Offense vs. Reds Pitching

The Reds are a different team than they’ve been the past few years with so many new faces on board. But the Brewers still found plenty of success during their first matchup this season in Cincinnati back in June – an extension of the dominance they’ve shown over the past several seasons.

The Crew took three of those four games, scoring at least five runs in all three of those wins. That series came after they took care of business against the Reds last season, when they finished 13-6 and scored 120 runs – good for a Reds ERA of 6.32 in those games.

Of course, the Reds didn’t have players like De La Cruz on the roster the last time they met. Still, the Brewers are familiar with Reds pitching and have historically fared well against it with a team OPS of .834 vs. Cincinnati since last year.

The Brewers typically win when they score at least four runs – they’re 40-8 when hitting that mark this season – so it will be up to Reds pitching to turn the tide if they hope to gain some breathing room in the NL Central.