Examining Padres' future at short, and where Xander fits

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Padres -- as you've read here previously -- have a roster full of shortstops.

Their star third baseman? Was a shortstop. Their star right fielder? Was a shortstop (and probably still could be). Their sparkplug second baseman? An elite defensive shortstop. Their starting first baseman? A utility player with shortstop on his résumé.

It stretches beyond that, too. The Padres' No. 2 prospect who could soon be knocking on the door of the big leagues? A shortstop. The 17-year-old they signed Monday to open the international signing window? A shortstop, rated by MLB.com as the top player in the class.

Yep, A.J. Preller loves his shortstops. And when the Padres’ general manager had money to spend last offseason, guess where he chose to spend it?

On Xander Bogaerts, the incumbent at the position and the starter there until further notice. One year into the 11-year contract Bogaerts signed last winter, there are already questions about the prudence of that deal, given the fit. Then again, Bogaerts could go a long way toward answering some of those questions with a bounceback 2024 season.

But more on that in a moment. First, here's a look at where things stand for the Padres at short:

On the 40-man roster: Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, Matthew Batten, Eguy Rosario (and, sure, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth can play there, too)

Departures: None

Top-30 prospects: Jackson Merrill (No. 2), Rosario (No. 16), Rosman Verdugo (No. 21)

Is Bogaerts definitely the starter at short?

While we've yet to receive a firm answer to this question from either Preller or manager Mike Shildt, it’s obviously the likeliest outcome. In fact, when asked about his 2024 infield at the Winter Meetings last month, Preller said succinctly: "I liked the one we had last year."

If, indeed, the Padres run it back, that means Bogaerts back at shortstop, where he was solid defensively last year, worth 3 Outs Above Average according to Statcast. In the past three seasons, he's gone from below average defensively to perfectly adequate.

In MLB Network's Top 10 Right Now series, Bogaerts ranked as MLB's No. 3 shortstop. Which might make this question sound weird, but it's one worth asking:

Should Bogaerts be the starter at short?

This would be a trickier question if Kim hadn't adjusted so seamlessly to second base. Turns out Kim, an elite defensive shortstop, is an elite defensive second baseman, too.

The Padres could get by with the status-quo. In fact, the status-quo is probably one of the best middle infields in the sport.

But that ignores the fact that Kim is, plainly, a better defensive shortstop than Bogaerts. The Padres promised Bogaerts a starting role at short in 2023. They left the rest open-ended. For now, there are other factors complicating the matter. (Namely: Kim being a year from free agency and, potentially, the need to use him at third base early in the season while Manny Machado recovers from elbow surgery.)

But shortstops don't tend to age well. If Bogaerts' defense dips, he won't be long for the position.

What do the Padres need from Bogaerts in 2024?

Simply put: More than they got in 2023. Outside of a fast start and a decent finish, Bogaerts' debut season in San Diego was a disappointment. He finished the year hitting a respectable .285/.350/.440. But all of those numbers were his lowest since 2017 -- not to mention, Bogaerts batted .192 with men in scoring position and .244 in late-and-close spots.

Of course, it's impossible to ignore Bogaerts' production before and after he was hit by a pitch on his balky left wrist in late April. Bogaerts had a cortisone injection on that wrist during the All-Star break, and it's probably not a coincidence that his numbers were much better in the second half.

There's a path for a redemption arc in 2024 if Bogaerts puts up his usual numbers. (For reference, Bogaerts batted .301 with an .880 OPS across his final five seasons in Boston.) But first, he'll need to be healthy.

What's the future at short after Bogaerts?

Bogaerts is under contract in San Diego for another decade. At some point in that span, he'll cede the position and move elsewhere. (Perhaps to second. Perhaps to first. At the time of his signing, third base was a potential long-term destination, but the Padres extended Machado shortly thereafter, and their long-term roster planning got a bit clunky.)

Still, the future is bright at shortstop, particularly with Monday's signing of Leodalis De Vries, the top-ranked international prospect. De Vries is a switch-hitter with a rare blend of patience and pop at the plate. Merrill, meanwhile, remains the Padres’ No. 2 prospect and could be poised for a big league breakthrough in 2024.

There's also a possibility the Padres extend Kim (which we covered earlier this week). If so, he and Bogaerts might flip spots. Whatever the end result, the Padres have options.

The verdict

For all the present question marks, shortstop is still a position of strength in San Diego. Even in a down year, Bogaerts was a 4.4 WAR player. He batted .321/.364/.493 in the second half -- which, to be perfectly frank, is what the Padres paid for.

After spending his entire professional career in Boston, 2023 marked a rough transition for Bogaerts. But, more comfortable in Year 2, he should be in line for a bounceback season.