What's different with reigning Cy winner Sandy this year?

MIAMI -- Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara doesn’t feel added pressure as the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, and he’s not sure whether batters are trying their hardest to beat him after the accolade.

But Tuesday night’s 6-0 loss to the Braves at loanDepot park, in which Alcantara allowed three runs over five innings, was a continuation of his early-season struggles.

Is Alcantara regressing to the mean? Are Major League hitters adjusting? Here are three trends through his six starts so far in 2023:

Behind in the count
While Alcantara’s first-pitch strike rate and pitches per plate appearance are nearly identical to 2022, he entered Tuesday’s series opener ahead or behind in counts at almost exactly a 1:1 ratio (51 plate appearances working from behind, 52 from ahead). Last season, Alcantara was ahead in 51.1% of plate appearances and behind in 36.9%.

“The deeper counts is what I'm looking at more than anything, and why aren't they being put away?” manager Skip Schumaker said. “And so when that happens, that's when you kind of have to get back and look at the film again. I felt like his last couple bullpen sessions after his bicep thing were really, really good and figured out some stuff.”

After Alcantara’s third walk of the fifth inning on Tuesday, pitching coach Mel Stottlmyre Jr. visited the mound for the second time. In 2022, there were stretches of consecutive Alcantara starts where Stottlemyre never made the trip from the dugout. That hasn’t been the case in 2023. After the visit, Alcantara induced a groundout off the bat of Michael Harris II to end the threat.

“The third and fourth were really good, and then the fifth kind of back to the missed pitches, walks,” Schumaker said. “You just don't see Sandy walk that many guys. When you see that, there's something going on. You can tell he's frustrated. But I'm pretty positive that he's going to get through this.

“It just goes back to location. That's probably what it most likely is. I'll have to look at it again. The two-seam was really good today at times, and at times it was up. The changeup was really good at times. Sometimes it was up.”

Uneven repertoire
During his Cy Young-winning campaign, Alcantara turned to each offering in his four-pitch arsenal about a quarter of the time. That balanced attack was a big reason why he tossed six complete games.

But lately, Alcantara has struggled pitching deep into games. Look at his numbers the third time through the order:
2023: .440/.516/.760
2022: .239/.279/.359

It all comes down to Alcantara’s changeup. Unequivocally his best offering in 2022 (MLB-best -25 run value), it’s been ineffective (2 RV) in ‘23. Despite the attack zone rate being quite similar, batters are wrecking changeups down the middle when they weren’t last season.

There haven’t been major changes to its movement, release point or velocity. It even has a higher whiff rate (40.4% up from 34.4%) this season, but the quality of contact (.296 BA, average exit velocity up seven mph) has been the issue. As a result, his changeup usage has decreased from 27.7% last year to 25.1% this year.

Additionally, Alcantara admitted he might have his best two-seamer in one start but not the next. His sinker/changeup combination hasn’t been as consistent.

“Everything is the same,” Alcantara said. “My mechanics, my delivery, my attacking the zone. I don't know. [Batters] seem a little bit patient waiting and selecting their pitches. So I think they know who I am. They know me. They know I throw a lot of strikes, and they take advantage.”

Not a ground-ball machine
Eddie Rosario’s run-scoring double play in the fifth was only the second GIDP induced by Alcantara this season after recording 21 -- eighth most in MLB -- in 2022. His ground-ball rate has dipped from 53.2% to 43.3%, while his line drive and fly ball rates have gone up. Across all of his pitches, the largest dip has come with the changeup (69.1% to 41.2% GB rate).

“I don't have to change anything,” Alcantara said. “I just got to keep positive, believe in myself. Keep working on everything I have to do to get better. Get on track from last year.”

“He wasn't Cy Young Sandy the first month of the year last year, so I'm confident he'll get it going,” said Jacob Stallings, who has caught every Alcantara pitch since 2022. “Just one of those things just got to iron it out a little bit and he'll be fine.”