There's no pitching around Rafael Devers

By Thomas Harrigan | July 9, 2022

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Thursday’s game between the Yankees and the Red Sox at Fenway Park was a snapshot of why Boston third baseman Rafael Devers is such a special hitter.

Entering the game, Boston’s third baseman had hit four homers off Yankees ace Gerrit Cole since the start of last season, three on four-seam fastballs and one on a changeup.

In the bottom of the third inning Thursday, Cole threw Devers a 1-1 slider down and in, just 1.18 feet off the ground. Devers golfed it out of the park for a 434-foot dinger. Three innings later, he took Cole deep again, this time crushing a 425-foot blast to dead center on a 1-0 changeup low and away.

“I'm open for suggestions, because you're all watching the game too,” Cole said after the game. “It's pretty wild. He's just been able to hit everything. There just hasn't been a mis-hit. Roll over one time. Line out one time. You’re supposed to fail seven out of 10 times in this game. I don't know what the deal is."

You’re not alone, Gerrit.

Devers, who tweaked his back Friday but isn't expected to require a stint on the IL, really can hit everything. And he approaches at-bats like he knows it, swinging from the heels and only taking walks begrudgingly.

Slated to start the Midsummer Classic for the American League after defeating Guardians third baseman José Ramírez in the 2022 All-Star Ballot Finals, Devers is hitting .327/.384/.593 slash and 19 homers in 80 games this season, ranking among the top five in the AL in Baseball-Reference wins above replacement, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, extra-base hits and total bases. Nobody in MLB has more hard-hit balls (batted balls with 95+ mph exit velocity).

Here’s why it is so difficult to pitch to the 25-year-old. (All stats below are through Friday.)

He crushes strikes

Devers owns the strike zone like few others in MLB.

He’s offered at 78.5% of the pitches he’s seen in the zone this season, one of the highest zone-swing rates in MLB.

The results are eye-popping. Six out of every 10 batted balls (60%) he’s produced on pitches in the zone have been hard-hit, MLB's 11th highest in-zone hard-hit rate (min. 100 batted balls).

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In 220 at-bats ending on in-zone pitches, Devers is hitting .364 with 15 homers and a .659 slugging percentage. Only six hitters have recorded a higher batting average than Devers on pitches in the zone.

Highest batting average on in-zone pitches, 2022
Min. 100 PAs ending on in-zone pitches

  1. Bryce Harper (PHI): .385
  2. Luis Arraez (MIN): .378
  3. Paul Goldschmidt (STL): .376
  4. J.D. Martinez (BOS): .367
  5. Manny Machado (SD): .366
  6. Garrett Cooper (MIA): .365
  7. Rafael Devers (BOS): .364

As this chart shows, there’s really only one weak spot in the strike zone where pitchers can attack Devers: up and in. But if they miss low or don’t get the ball inside enough, they’re in big trouble.

Given his ability to absolutely obliterate strikes, you won’t be surprised to learn that hurlers have been trying to pitch around him, going out of the zone more than 53% of the time. But pitching around Devers is easier said than done.

He crushes balls

Devers doesn’t only let it rip against pitches in the zone, he also has one of MLB’s highest chase rates at 37.3%. But while big league hitters as a whole have a .157 average and .218 slugging percentage on out-of-zone pitches this season, Devers is mashing these pitches, too.

The 25-year-old’s MLB-best slugging percentage in at-bats ending on out-of-zone pitches is 234 points higher than the MLB average.

Highest SLG on out-of-zone pitches, 2022
Min. 75 PAs ending on out-of-zone pitches

  1. Rafael Devers (BOS): .452
  2. Travis d’Arnaud (ATL): .444
  3. Yadiel Hernandez (WSH): .410
  4. Rowdy Tellez (MIL): .403
  5. José Ramírez (CLE): .402

Devers’ third-inning homer off Cole on Thursday was his fourth of the season on a pitch out of the strike zone, and he leads all players with 13 extra-base hits on such pitches.

His hit chart on out-of-zone pitches provides a sense of just how much area he can cover with the bat.

Among left-handed batters this season, Devers has the third-most extreme home run on an inside pitch, going yard on a pitch that was 1.21 feet from the middle of the plate off the inside corner against the Twins on April 15.

He also has the most extreme home run any left-handed batter has hit on an outside pitch, taking a ball that was thrown 1.31 feet from the center of the plate off the outside corner and hammering it over the left-field wall against the Mariners on June 12.

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He crushes every pitch type

Devers is beating pitchers whether they throw it in the zone or out, but surely there’s some specific kind of pitch to which he’s susceptible, right? Nope.

Consider this:

Devers and Goldschmidt are the only hitters with a .300 batting average or higher against all three classifications (min. 30 PAs ending on each).

Breaking it down on a more granular level, here’s how Devers is doing against each individual pitch type:

The only pitch type Devers hasn't done well against is the splitter, but hardly anyone throws it. He only has 10 at-bats ending on splitters in 2022.

It feels like Devers has been around forever, considering he debuted in 2017. But he's still just 25 years old, and he hasn't been a consistently elite hitter for all that long.

The young slugger was up and down over his first four seasons, mixing amazing flashes with bouts of inconsistency en route to a 115 OPS+. However, he really came into his own in 2021, and he's raised his game again this year.

Set to make his second straight start at third base for the AL in the All-Star Game, Devers seems poised to own that spot for many years to come.

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