Will Cease remain atop the White Sox rotation in '24?

This story was excerpted from Scott Merkin’s White Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CHICAGO -- The White Sox have not been as active as their ardent fan base would have liked over the months leading into 2024.

To say they were inactive, though, is a misnomer. General manager Chris Getz and his front office already have begun their retooling process with a focus on building a better defensive team, a strong fundamental squad and a cohesive group with regard to clubhouse culture.

But there’s more ahead for Getz and company after the start of the new year. Here’s a brief White Sox outlook with 2024 fast approaching:

Biggest question to answer before Spring Training: Where will Dylan Cease pitch at the start of the '24 season?
There’s been so much talk about the 2023 White Sox Opening Day starter and where he could go that it almost seems as if he's already been traded. But Cease is with the team as the White Sox continue to keep an open mind amid all possibilities.

Cease, who turns 28 on Dec. 28, is one year removed from finishing second in American League Cy Young Award voting to Justin Verlander. Cease walked 79 over 177 innings in 2023 and issued a Major League-high 78 free passes in '22, but he also has fanned at least 214 in each of his last three seasons and shown his durability by making 97 starts in total with a 3.54 ERA in that time frame.

Business should pick up once bigger-name free-agent pitchers come off the board, and Getz could have his choice of returns from a few suitors. It’s unlikely the White Sox can overplay their side in this situation because if they don’t get absolutely what they want, they can hold onto Cease, who features two more years of control at the top of the rotation.

One player poised to have a breakout season: Yoán Moncada
The switch-hitting third baseman was a popular choice in this category entering 2023, coming off an injury-plagued '22, and he looked great playing for Cuba during the World Baseball Classic. But Moncada suffered a debilitating back injury for most of the season to the point where it looked as if he might need surgery.

Moncada came back healthy on July 25 and slashed .281/.324/.464 over his final 54 games with eight home runs, 12 doubles and 27 RBIs. The 2024 season marks the last guaranteed year of Moncada’s contract at $24 million, with the team holding a $25 million option and a $5 million buyout for '25. A fully healthy Moncada should mean a productive Moncada.

Prospect to watch in 2024: Noah Schultz
Yes, Colson Montgomery at No. 17 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list is the most likely to make a significant impact in 2024. There are other young players such as third baseman Bryan Ramos, left-hander Jake Eder and right-hander Nick Nastrini who should aid the '24 White Sox cause as well.

In Schultz, though, the White Sox have the makings of a bona fide ace for many years to come. Veteran hurler Joe Kelly thought Schultz should have been in big league camp with the '23 White Sox based on his high-end raw stuff, and Schultz followed that kudos with a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings for Single-A Kannapolis, featuring 38 strikeouts, six walks and 17 hits. At age 20, Schultz really just needs innings to build up to the Majors.

One prediction for the new year: The White Sox will be better in 2024 than they were in '23
Will they make the postseason or finish at .500? I would say no to both of those questions, although anything is possible, if not plausible, in the American League Central. But they will have a better team than last year -- not necessarily more talent, but a better overall fit. So, 70 wins does not seem impossible.

It’s easy to see why White Sox fans would be irked by such a prediction. Not with the number of wins, but with 70 wins standing as a good thing with the last rebuild promising a championship window lingering not that far off in the distance. Let’s also be honest: The '23 team finished at 61-101 and was every bit as bad as the record, so the bar isn’t especially high for improvement.