Soto ... and then? MLB execs pick No. 2 free agent
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As Juan Soto begins to meet with suitors in the coming days, there are several free agents who will be watching that situation closely.
Such sluggers as Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander will be intrigued to see which clubs strike out on Soto, potentially opening the door for them to be the power bats those clubs need. Ditto for Willy Adames and Alex Bregman, who might not have the same pop as the aforementioned duo but offer more well-rounded skill sets at important defensive positions.
Top pitchers, including Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, also will be interested parties, as the clubs that are unable to sign Soto will have significant dollars left to spend.
So while the consensus is that Soto is the top free agent on the market this offseason, which player is the next-best option for clubs seeking a major free-agent upgrade?
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We posed that question to a number of executives around the league, asking them which player they consider to be No. 2 in the current free-agent class.
Note: We eliminated Roki Sasaki from this exercise, as the Japanese starting pitcher is considered an international amateur free agent, which will prevent him from landing a nine-figure contract, a factor that would almost certainly make him the consensus answer -- if not move him ahead of Soto for the No. 1 spot.
Who's the second-best free agent in this class, behind Soto?
• Corbin Burnes (eight votes)
• Willy Adames (five votes)
• Blake Snell (two votes)
• Max Fried (one vote)
Burnes’ place atop the poll demonstrates the clear value of starting pitching around the Majors.
“I think it’s so incredibly difficult to get your hands on a frontline starter who has the ability to strike out hitters, keep walks down and who is built to pitch innings,” a National League executive said. “He’s a horse, and he’ll pitch at just 30 years old. So, theoretically, there should be a number of good years ahead of him.
“Those guys are really hard to come by -- particularly in today’s game. His ability to eat innings is incredibly valuable.”
Burnes’ 816 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season rank third in the Majors, behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, both of whom signed nine-figure contracts in the past year. During the past five seasons, Burnes has a 2.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, firmly establishing himself as one of the top starters in the game.
“He’s the best starting pitcher out there, with both past success and age on his side,” an NL executive said. “All of the other position players have at least some question marks, so none of them rise up to No. 2.”
If there is one concern about Burnes, it’s that his strikeout rate has dropped every year since 2020, when he registered a career-best mark of 36.7%. Last season, Burnes fanned 181 batters in 194 1/3 innings. His 23.1% rate marked his lowest since his 2018 rookie season (23.0%).
“I think Burnes is probably next, but the recent results have been very good, not quite great,” an American League executive said. “I still trust him more than Fried or Snell, but all those guys are reasonably close.”
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Another NL executive cited the strikeout numbers as one reason he chose Snell as his No. 2 behind Soto, though Snell’s lack of draft-pick compensation also helps his case.
“Snell positioned himself nicely to land the payday he sought last offseason,” the NL exec said. “Burnes’ declining strikeout rate could make Snell the preferred choice between those two for many clubs.”
Snell’s second half (1.45 ERA over 68 1/3 innings in 12 starts) was stellar, though his first half -- marked by injury and inconsistency -- might cause some clubs some concern. Snell falls short of Burnes when it comes to durability, having thrown more than 130 innings only twice in his career.
“Burnes has a rare combo in today’s game of durability and impact,” an AL executive said.
When Snell is on top of his game, there aren’t many pitchers who perform better. And you can look no further than his two Cy Young Awards as proof. But those are in the past. And as he enters his age-32 season, there appears to be more risk with signing him to a long-term deal than there is with Burnes.
“Snell can be great; we all know that,” an NL executive said. “But the old saying, ‘The best ability is availability’ is a cliché for a reason. Snell just isn’t always available. And if you’re paying a pitcher $30 million a year, you want to feel confident that he’s going to take the ball 30-plus times every year. That’s why I would go with Burnes.”
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While 11 of the 16 voters chose a starting pitcher, the five who went with a position player were unanimous in their selection: Adames.
The 29-year-old easily tops the list of available shortstops this offseason, a position valued as much for defense as offense. Adames didn’t have a standout season defensively in 2024, but his 26 outs above average since the start of 2022 rank fourth in the Majors among shortstops.
“Because of the position he plays and because there are teams that need a shortstop, he’s really valuable,” an AL executive said. “When he played against us, all I could think was, ‘I’d love to have that guy on our team.’”
Adames recorded career highs in home runs (32) and RBIs (112) this past season for the Brewers, finishing the year with a personal-best 4.8 fWAR. He has been at least a three-win player in all five of his full seasons in the Majors, playing at least 139 games in each of them.
Bregman didn’t receive any votes. Two executives noted that while his career statistics are better than Adames, there has been some offensive decline in recent years. After finishing second in AL MVP voting in 2019 with 41 home runs, 112 RBIs and a 1.015 OPS, Bregman hasn’t come close to those numbers again. He posted a career-low .768 OPS in 2024, with 26 homers and 75 RBIs.
“I think they’re very similar today,” an AL executive said. “I’ll take the guy who is 1 1/2 years younger and has played shortstop recently.”
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Two executives also cited Adames’ reputation as a clubhouse leader, noting that he brings as much to a team off the field as he does between the lines.
“He’s so good, and he’s such a good human,” an AL executive said. “If you’re throwing money at someone and you’re going to invest in them, you’re going to get a lot of benefits from him. He plays; he posts every day, and durability is something we don’t always pay for.”
Added another AL executive: “Everything I've been told about him, he’s a wonderful teammate who connects with the American players and Latin American players. You put all those things together with what he can do on the field, he’s going to be attractive to a lot of teams. With long-term deals for big money, that’s got to factor in.”