Which Brewers prospect could be the next big rotation arm?
The Brewers elite starting rotation wasn’t built by accident.
The star-studded staff – featuring three Cy Young candidates in Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta – took years to come to fruition. All three aces ascended through the Brewers farm system, a sign of quality scouting, development, and organizational drafting prowess.
Now, the Brewers are reaping the benefits: those three pitchers each rank in the top-10 in Fangraphs pitcher WAR, total strikeouts, and ERA in the National League – and the team sits 26 games above .500 to boot.
While all eyes are on the first-place Major League club, the Brewers still have some exciting pitching prospects working their way through the same system that produced their current staff. Here’s a look at three of the top contenders to become a future fixture in the Crew’s rotation.
Aaron Ashby (LHP – Milwaukee Brewers)
Ashby may be the most recognizable name on this list, as he was named the 2019 Brewers Minor League pitcher of the year and has already seen some big-league action with the Brewers in 2021. Most recently, the lefty tossed six scoreless innings over two big-league appearances last week.
A fourth-round pick in 2018, Ashby started this season in Triple-A – an ambitious assignment having never played above A-ball – seeing time both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
With his wipeout slider (65 out of 80 grade via mlb.com), a fastball that reaches 95 mph, and a developing set of off-speed pitches (changeup, curveball), Ashby has the arsenal to start at the big-league level. He’s already flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff in Nashville, striking out a whopping 98 batters in 62.1 innings.
With his foot already in the door with the big-league club, Ashby projects to be the first of the Brewers prospects to have a shot at joining the starting staff.
Ethan Small Breakdown (LHP – Triple-A Nashville Sounds)
Drafted with a first-round selection in 2019, Ethan Small currently ranks as the No. 4 overall prospect in the Brewers farm system.
Small was a household name with Mississippi State baseball fans during the 2019 season, when he came off a missed year due to Tommy John surgery and won Southeastern Conference pitcher of the year en route to a College World Series appearance.
The accolades have continued into Small’s pro career, as his dominant 2021 season has garnered a Double-A South Pitcher of the Week Award with the Biloxi Shuckers, followed by a promotion to Triple-A Nashville and a selection to the MLB Futures Game.
In eight games with Double-A Biloxi, Small posted a dazzling 1.96 ERA with 67 strikeouts in only 41.1 innings pitched, all while holding hitters to a .184 average. Small’s dominance hasn’t wavered since his promotion to Triple-A, as he holds a 1.23 ERA in his first three starts with the Sounds.
With a fastball that tops out around 92 mph, Small relies on his advanced command, a deceptive delivery, and a quality changeup to fool hitters. Expect the left-hander to also be a middle-of-the-rotation impact starter, perhaps sooner rather than later.
Antoine Kelly Breakdown (LHP – High-A Carolina Mudcats)
Of the three pitchers listed, Kelly may be the last to put on a big-league uniform. But he also may have the most electric pitch of the three.
The 21-year-old stands at 6-foot-6 and uses every inch of his height when on the mound, slinging his fastball consistently in the upper-90s. He made waves while debuting in the Arizona Rookie League in 2019, where he pitched 28.2 innings and struck out 41.
Unfortunately, Kelly underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome this past offseason. After rehabbing throughout the first half of the year, he made his 2021 Minor League debut on a rehab start in the Arizona League on July 13. Kelly was quickly sent back up to High-A Carolina, where he currently holds a healthy 12.1 K/9 in five appearances.
If Kelly is able to improve upon his secondary pitches to complement his above-average fastball, the sky is the limit for this Brewers prospect.