What to expect from Rockies No. 4 prospect Beck in big leagues
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When I was in Rockies camp this spring, there was genuine excitement about the next wave of hitting prospects on the horizon for this organization. Those who have been around a while -- and that’s quite a few folks because Colorado believes in continuity -- felt it had the same vibe as circa 2004-2007, when the likes of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Spilborghs were launched into the big leagues.
The new generation of Rockies bats already features Ezequiel Tovar in Colorado, and now he’s being joined by Jordan Beck (MLB's No. 73 prospect), who has emerged from a pack of prospects that include Sterlin Thompson, Adael Amador and Yanquiel Fernandez, all Top 100 prospects and all in Double-A or higher. Also in that mix are Zac Veen, having a bounce-back year in Double-A, and Drew Romo, performing well in Triple-A with Beck. Both are former Top 100 guys.
It was Beck, the club’s Competitive Balance Round A pick (No. 38 overall) in the 2022 Draft and current No. 4 prospect in system, who was nudged up to Triple-A ahead of his Top 100 contemporaries. And he’s made it very clear to the powers that be that he’s ready for an opportunity whenever it arises, hitting .307/.405/.594 over his first 25 games for the Albuquerque Isotopes. So as Nolan Jones deals with back stiffness, he was the obvious one to call to join the team in Miami.
As the 2022 Draft approached, Beck had worked his way into first-round conversations, drawing some comparisons to Hunter Renfroe as a physical and toolsy corner infield type with a bit of a power-over-hit profile and some speed to go along with it. Renfroe has gone on to have six big league seasons with at least 20 home runs, including two of 30-plus, with 179 career dingers to date. He’s also struck out in 25.2 percent of his plate appearances. That’s not an outlandish rate by today’s standards, but there’s some swing-and-miss to his game, and it creates a bit of a bar to measure Beck against.
Beck had struck out in over 20 percent of his plate appearances in his last year at Tennessee, though he also mashed 18 homers. He struck out 25.2 percent of the time (sound familiar?) during his first full season of pro ball. He also walked nearly 13 percent of the time to help offset that, a big reason for him finishing with a 20-20 season (25 homers, 20 steals) and an OPS of .867.
This year, he’s upped his overall game at the plate, albeit in a relatively small sample size of 25 games. The strikeout rate is under 20 percent and his overall miss rate is nowhere near the Triple-A leaders according to Statcast, while his walk rate remains very high (14.9 percent). That all helps explain the .307/.405/.594 line. Skeptics may worry about how much of that is because of his very hitting-friendly home ballpark. But while it’s true that the home-road splits are extreme (1.134 OPS at home vs. .803 on the road), there isn’t enough data to cause too much concern. And in 2023, when the hitting haven that is Spokane was his home, Beck actually had better numbers on the road in the High-A Northwest League.
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There are other indicators that point to Beck putting up numbers regardless of where he’s playing. The biggest one is that he hits the ball very hard, frequently. He already has 29 balls over 100 mph this year and his 91.3 mph average exit velocity placed him 25th among 165 Triple-A hitters with at least 50 plate appearances on the year. There’s plenty of bat speed in his leveraged swing; he’s far from done in reaching his maximum power output, and the fact that his overall approach has improved as a pro in terms of seeing pitches and drawing walks provides more confidence he can keep getting to that power at the highest level.
While Beck might slow down as he matures, he’s an aggressive and smart baserunner, so he still should be able to swipe some bags. And while he’s likely going to be called on to fill in for Jones in left field, he’s been better than expected defensively in all three outfield spots. Beyond this injury fill-in, he probably is best suited to playing a corner every day, with his plus arm fitting the right field prototype well. But knowing that he can play anywhere on the grass, including a surprisingly solid center field, should enhance his chances of keeping his potent right-handed bat in the lineup even once Jones has returned.