What to expect from Reds' McLain in the big leagues

When the Reds took Matt McLain out of UCLA with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, the hope was he’d be the kind of advanced college hitter who could move quickly through the system and reach Cincinnati sooner rather than later. Here we are, less than two years later, and the middle infielder is set to make his big league debut. Mission accomplished.

The fact that it came together that quickly this season might have surprised some after looking at the kind of campaign McLain had during his first full year of pro ball. The Reds were aggressive with assigning McLain, sending him to Double-A to start out 2022. The organization isn’t afraid to push college bats, though guys like Nick Senzel and Jonathan India started in High-A before getting bumped up to Double-A in their first full seasons.

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McLain struggled for much of the year, finishing with a .232/.363/.453 line. The year was not without positives, including a .945 OPS at home and a 15.5 percent walk rate. The main culprit for the disappointing production, though, was his overall approach. McLain struck out in more than 28 percent of his plate appearances and had an overall miss rate, according to Synergy, of 34 percent. He was selling out for power and while the 17 homers for a shortstop/second baseman were nice, his overall hit tool suffered too much. He was gassed when he got to the Arizona Fall League, and he finished his stint there with a .657 OPS.

Even with that, the Reds never really hesitated to send him up to Triple-A to start the 2023 season. The confidence in his tools and his makeup, that he’d make necessary adjustments, never wavered, so up to Louisville he went. It’s looking like they had him pegged correctly, isn't it?

We had nudged McLain off our Top 100 after he finished the 2022 season at No. 73, then put him back on the list with our first update on Sunday night, accidentally (but perfectly) timed with the announcement of his first call to the big leagues. He’s now at No. 95, and if he keeps doing what he’s been doing offensively with the Reds, his days as a prospect are numbered.

McLain arrives with a robust .348/.474/.710 line. His 1.184 OPS leads all Minor Leaguers with 100 or more plate appearances. He’s in the top five in ISO (.362), wRC+ (193) and wOBA (.499) along with more standard categories like home runs (12) and RBIs (40).

What’s the reason for the turnaround and, more importantly, can Reds fans expect more of this in the big league lineup?

The answer to the second question is yes, albeit with the usual caveat of letting a young player get his feet under him before expecting too much. Why so bullish after a small sample compared to last year’s full season? It’s how he’s going about doing it.

McLain clearly learned from getting out of his approach and swing a year ago and is a different hitter this year. He’s obviously tapping into his right-handed power, showing surprising pop given his 5-foot-8 stature. But he’s doing it without sacrificing anything else, unlike what he did a year ago.

The proof is in the numbers. He’s cut down on his swing and miss considerably, striking out just 19.7 percent of the time while still seeing pitches and drawing walks (16.8 percent rate). That overall miss rate has shrunk to 26 percent so far this year and he’s making more contact across the board, no matter what opposing pitchers are throwing at him.

And he’s doing it without giving up his ability to impact the baseball. According to Statcast, McLain already had 29 balls hit 100 mph or harder in just 38 Triple-A games. He’s found himself as a hitter and as long as he continues to trust his game plan, he has the chance to be a very productive one in Cincy.

He’ll be doing it mostly as a shortstop, it seems. To date, Kevin Newman and Jose Barrero have gotten the reps at the premium position and have hit a combined .230 with 12 extra-base hits. McLain will be an upgrade offensively and while he’s not the defender Barrero is, he’s a consistently steady defender. Plus, he can slide over to second base seamlessly to give India a day off whenever that’s needed. That might be his best long-term home, but that’s a conversation for another day.

For now, Reds fans should enjoy McLain’s arrival and boost to the lineup at short, his advanced approach at the plate, his ability to run the bases well and the kind of blue collar, grinder vibe he brings to the ballpark on a daily basis.