What to expect from Junior Caminero in MLB

Ding, ding, it's round two for a slugfest in St. Petersburg.

The Rays called up their prospect, Junior Caminero, ahead of Tuesday’s home game against the Astros at Tropicana Field. This is Caminero’s second arrival in the Majors after he played seven regular-season games for Tampa Bay in 2023 and earned two more plate appearances in the American League Wild Card Series against the Rangers.

The 21-year-old third baseman, No. 2 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, slashed .277/.331/.498 with 13 homers and nine doubles in 53 games with Triple-A Durham. He missed time earlier this season due to quad strains but had been back in the Bulls lineup since July 19.

The right-handed hitter brings some of the best raw power in all of prospectdom to The Show.

Entering Tuesday, there have been 306 batters with at least 200 plate appearances in Triple-A this season. Caminero ranks second among them in hard-hit rate (56.5 percent) and average exit velocity (93.3 mph), trailing only fellow recent MLB callup and prospect phenom James Wood (59.1, 95.1) in both categories. His 90th-percentile exit velocity of 109.7 mph is tops at the Minors’ top level, beating out noted mashers Wood (109.1), Deyvison De Los Santos (108.9) and Jhonkensy Noel (108.9).

To put that in context, Bobby Witt Jr. has the same exact 90th-percentile EV in the Majors, Gunnar Henderson has the same exact average exit velocity and the Orioles infielder (56.2) is Caminero’s closest comp in MLB hard-hit rate. His 117.2 max EV would trail only Yandy Diaz’s 117.4 among Rays Major Leaguers.

Putting up those numbers against Triple-A pitching is very different than replicating it against Major League arms – just ask the many top prospects who have struggled with the transition to the Majors – but it gives an idea of what rarefied air Caminero’s pop could put him into upon this return to the bigs.

What’s more, it’s power that plays to all fields. Of Caminero’s 13 homers, three went to left, three more to left-center, one to straightaway center, four to right-center and one the complete opposite way to right.

If there’s something that could dull the Dominican Republic’s pop in MLB, it’s the fact that – much like Wood at the time of his callup – he hits the ball on the ground a ton: 51.9 percent of the time at Triple-A this season. There have been 174 Minor Leaguers across all levels with groundball rates above 50 percent, and only five of them have slugged above .500, including Caminero (once you factor in his rehab appearances in the Florida Complex League). Caminero’s strength and bat speed send screamers all over the ballpark, but a little more elevation – which could very well come given how young he still is – would send his slugging numbers similarly skyward.

The Tampa Bay prospect was attacked with a heavy dose of sliders during his first Major League run last fall and whiffed on 33.3 percent of swings against the breaker. That whiff rate has been down to 24 percent in Triple-A this season, but it’s worth monitoring if MLB arms use similar tactics with better stuff than their International League counterparts.

Where the present version of Caminero might be more challenged is with his chase rate across multiple pitch types. Perhaps pressing to make his MLB case, he would expand the zone at times with Durham, leading to just a 6.8 percent walk rate, and he’ll have to be more patient in The Show.

Defensively, Caminero remains primarily a third baseman. He had some second base time with Durham this summer and even got in two Major League games as a shortstop (his original position) in ’23, but fringy speed makes him a stretch in the middle of the dirt. His defensive ceiling might be that of an average defensive third baseman if he stays diligent with his work at the hot corner.

The Rays created a lane for Caminero to become their everyday third baseman with last month’s trade of Isaac Paredes, and Curtis Mead (.569 OPS on the season) hasn’t lived up to his offensive expectations at the position.

With the Rays sitting 5 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race, they aren’t completely out of the postseason race, but this move was made more toward getting their top prospect settled in the Majors for a much longer stop at the Trop.