What to expect from Connor Phillips in the Majors
It may not exactly be the kind of callup kids dream of or that's turned into a feel-good sports movie, but that doesn't mean Connor Phillips' moment is anything less meaningful for him, regardless of how long it lasts.
The Reds called up Phillips from Triple-A as a substitute when Brandon Williamson became the fourth member of the pitching staff to test positive for COVID. From a transaction standpoint, the Reds didn't have to add Phillips to the 40-man roster (COVID injured list rules), but he's going to get at least one start on Tuesday, and the organization will take it day-by-day based on when other pitchers return from the IL, COVID or otherwise.
There could be some poetic justice with his big league debut, pitching against the Mariners, the team that drafted and signed Phillips as a second-round pick in 2020 out of McLennan Community College in Texas. Phillips became a Red as the player to be named later in the March 2022 deal for Jesse Winker. He's moved his way methodically up the ladder, splitting this season between Double-A and Triple-A, and he landed on our Top 100 list for the first time at the beginning of August.
Currently No. 4 on the Reds list and No. 71 on the Top 100, Phillips is getting the opportunity to not only fill in but to potentially provide a salve for a banged-up rotation of a team in the middle of a heated National League Wild Card race. And when he's firing on all cylinders, he has more than enough stuff to get big league hitters out.
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Case in point: Check out his last start with Triple-A Louisville on Aug. 31. Coming off a two-start rough patch in which he gave up 10 runs over three combined innings (while evidently pitching through illness), the 6-foot-2 right-hander went six shutout frames, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out six. His fastball averaged 95.2 mph and was up to 97.3 in the outing, with clearly plenty in the tank even though he's up over the century mark in innings for the season.
Phillips continues to throw his slider more often than his curve, both in the low 80s and both can miss a lot of bats. The curve was a bit more effective on that front last Thursday, but for the year, each of them have generated swing-and-miss rates north of 40 percent combined according to Synergy. So that's already a three-pitch assortment that can be effective.
He has an upper-80s changeup that can be effective but has not been thrown much in Louisville. That and his command are the areas of growth Phillips will need to keep focusing on. His career walk rate of 5.2 BB/9 doesn't point to a future in a rotation long-term, but he had made strides in Double-A this year before regressing in Triple-A. He's still only 22, so there's time for him to refine both enough to stick as a starter.
In our last episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, we talked about players who could get called up to the big leagues to help out teams in playoff races. We put them into buckets of "Likely" and "Possibly" among those we thought had a chance. Phillips was in the "Possibly" group before COVID made the Reds call for help. I had mentioned that perhaps working in a shorter role out of the 'pen might not be a bad short-term idea. If he can find the zone enough in his first start, he could have some success right out of the gate, and then it will depend on what the Reds need and if they want to add him to the 40-man roster post-COVID injured list rules. Their bullpen has been dinged up as well, so if Phillips makes a good impression, perhaps he could stick around in a different role (unless he's so good they keep him in the rotation, of course) before being given an opportunity to make the rotation next spring.