Cole, Yankees could have rewritten history in '08
When Gerrit Cole joined the Yankees on the richest contract for a pitcher in history this offseason, he fulfilled a destiny Yankees fans dreamed of long before the Pirates made him the first overall selection in the 2011 MLB Draft. (It also made a young Gerrit Cole very, very happy.)
That's because there is a universe where the flame-throwing right-hander got his start in pinstripes over a decade earlier. The Yankees originally picked him 28th overall in the 2008 Draft, hoping to lure the high school starter to go pro. At the time, Yankees GM Brian Cashman thought the team had a good chance of signing the pitcher before Cole changed his mind and decided to honor his commitment to UCLA.
Obviously, things have gone pretty well for Cole, so I doubt he would ask for a do-over. But what if Cole did sign -- choosing the bright lights of New York over UCLA's campus?
Today, we're going to see just how radically the landscape of the baseball world would have changed had Cole made a different decision. Let's hop into our temporal engine and peek at what this alternate universe looks like.
1. The Yankees become a pitching powerhouse
In the real world, the right-hander broke in with the Pirates in 2013, but in our fictional universe, Cole debuts in the middle of the 2012 season with the Yankees, taking Ivan Nova's spot in the rotation.
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While that makes the Yankees a better team, they still lose in the ALCS (Cole alone can't make up for a sweep at the hands of the Tigers), but in a few short years we'll see Cole's impact.
Cole had one fantastic year with the Pirates in 2015 when he was a Cy Young finalist. But Pittsburgh didn't do a great job utilizing Cole's talents -- limiting the use of his breaking pitches and forcing him to rely on a sinking fastball far too often. That's one explanation for how quickly Cole went from a solid pitcher to one of the league's best once he arrived in Houston.
In this scenario, the Yankees don't put those reins on Cole, so he becomes the ace he is today much faster. That also means the Yankees have the kind of rotation that gets written about decades later -- one spoken of in hushed tones and with the sort of reverence we reserve for the 1960s Dodgers and '90s Braves. Cole would be the ace of a staff that includes Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia -- and just to make everyone outside of the Bronx really, really mad, you know they would be called The Core 4, too.
Obviously, with the Yankees being perennial contenders and with no need to watch their budget the way the Pirates do, Cole is never traded to Houston, either.
2. Cole wins the 2015 AL Cy Young Award
With his stuff unleashed, Cole improves on his real-world 2015 performance (19-8, 2.60 ERA) enough to defeat Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48) to take home his first Cy Young Award.
It's not all doom and gloom for Keuchel and the Astros, though, as Houston still advances in the AL Wild Card Game that October. No matter how good Cole is on the mound, he can't top Keuchel shutting out the Yankees.
As for 2017? Well, we'll get to that in a little bit.
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3. The Pirates draft Anthony Rendon
There was plenty of debate on who the Pirates were going to take first overall in the weeks leading up to the 2011 Draft, with reports split on if the Pirates were going to take Cole, left-handed starter Danny Hultzen or Rice third baseman Rendon. Mock drafts had the Bucs taking Rendon, and Neal Huntington was quoted as saying he found Rendon's bat interesting, though the injury reports had him a little wary.
With Cole off the table in this reality, the Pirates roll the dice on Rendon.
The addition of Rendon -- allowing Pedro Alvarez to move to first base years earlier -- makes its impact felt most strongly in 2014. With Rendon on the team and the defense vastly improved, the Pirates now win the NL Central (their first division crown since 1992) and avoid facing -- and therefore being shut out by -- Madison Bumgarner in the NL Wild Card Game.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, this would only delay their eventual loss to Bumgarner and the Giants' even-year magic in the NLCS. But hey, at least Pittsburgh has one less crushing Wild Card loss on its ledger.
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4. ... But the Pirates still trade Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow to the Rays
No matter how solid Chris Archer is, we can all admit that the Glasnow and Meadows trade in the summer of 2018 doesn't look great for Pittsburgh these days. Unfortunately for the Pirates, Rendon doesn't butterfly effect that trade away.
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In the real world, the Pirates dealt Cole to Houston before the 2018 season because the pitcher's middling performance over the previous two seasons meant that his stock was only dropping, and it wasn't exactly clear if he was going to bounce back to his 2015 form. (Whoops.)
Meanwhile, Rendon was coming off an MVP-caliber 2017 campaign, which would lead the Pirates to hold on to him for the '18 season and look to roll the dice on the club one more time. Naturally, that means they would once again push their chips in and make the same deal with the Rays in hopes of courting October glory.
While Rendon and company still don't reach the postseason that year, all is not lost. Because Rendon is such a highly coveted player, the Pirates then flip him to the Braves before the 2019 season for top prospects Christian Pache, Shea Langeliers and two low-level pitching prospects. While it won't totally make up for the loss of Meadows and Glasnow, it helps soothe the souls of plenty of Pirates fans. The deal also means Josh Donaldson never becomes a Brave -- perhaps joining the Twins one year earlier than he did in real life.
5. Francisco Lindor is now a National
Put Mr. Smile in the nation's capital. With Rendon off the board in the 2011 Draft, Washington turns to Lindor with the sixth overall pick. It's likely a hard decision for the team, as they would be choosing between two high-risk players: Either the 17-year-old Lindor or George Springer, who was coming out of college but had a swing that scouts believed needed major mechanical adjustments.
Washington clearly wasn't scared of risk, so in this world, they decide to bank on Lindor in hopes of drafting their shortstop of the future. It proves to be a wise choice.
Lindor's talents not only ensure that the Nationals still win the 2019 World Series, but there's a good chance they ink the infielder to a long-term contract, too. After all, there aren't many generational shortstops out there. (We don't want to get too wild in this alternate reality, but it doesn't stretch the belief to think that a team with Lindor and Bryce Harper may get out of the divisional round before '19, too.)
Even Ashton Kutcher would be terrified of the butterfly effects here, so get ready for a roster shuffle: With Lindor off the board, the Indians choose Javier Báez one pick later, and that leads the Cubs to pick the best bat on the board in Springer. Without Springer available, the Astros select Sonny Gray to slot him into their rotation of the future.
All of these picks are good ones -- each player will turn out to be a solid Major Leaguer -- but these decisions have far-reaching consequences.
6. The Cubs don't win the 2016 World Series
Sorry, Cubs fans -- but in this universe, you're still waiting for the curse to finally, mercifully, end. While Springer actually performed better than Báez did in the regular season that year, he doesn't even get a shot to win the World Series MVP Award that he collected in 2017 with the Astros in our reality.
That's because without Báez around to hit two home runs in a crucial Game 4 victory or drive in three runs in Chicago's Game 5 win, it's the Dodgers who advance from the NLCS and go on to defeat the Indians.
Goodbye comparisons to the Buffalo Bills teams of the early '90s, hello to Vin Scully presiding over a World Series parade through the streets of Echo Park. Even in this made-up reality, it's impossible to guess how many more years of pain Cubs fans will have until they get their title.
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7. Justin Verlander is never traded to the Astros
Yes, the waiver wire deal that went down to the deadline now doesn't happen. With Gray in the rotation alongside Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr., the team isn't lacking for starting pitching in 2017. No, now they need a significant upgrade in the outfield.
Without Springer in center, it's likely that Teoscar Hernández would have received much more than the one game he saw with the Astros in real life, but with the team looking to really make a splash, they make a very different trade with the Tigers.
In this universe, they hear rumors of Arizona trying to make a deal and decide to offer a bigger package -- likely including Kyle Tucker -- and get J.D. Martinez. It's a poetic return for Martinez, who was originally drafted and reached the Majors with Houston before he was released after the 2013 season. That decision spurred Martinez to rework his swing and become the superstar slugger he is today.
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Just as the slugger went supernova in the desert -- hitting 29 home runs in half a season with the D-backs -- we'll say he does much of the same in his return to Houston. And while his defense is no match for Springer's, his bat makes up for it. Since that year's World Series was an absolute slugfest, the addition of Martinez gives Houston that little bit of edge necessary to defeat L.A. and collect the World Series title.
One other side effect: Since Verlander doesn't join the Astros and get the boost from their pitching development system that rejuvenated his career, Cole collects a second Cy Young Award after the 2019 season.
8. Sorry, Red Sox, but the Yankees are now winners of the 2018 World Series
In the real world, the Red Sox beat the Yankees by eight games to take the AL East crown, making the Yankees one of the few second-place 100-win teams.
Well, in this reality, Cole not only provides a considerable improvement over the back of the Yankees rotation, but some of those extra wins will come at Boston's expense. Not only will we have one of the greatest AL East races between the two rivals, but this time the Yankees come out narrowly ahead.
Now, with home-field advantage and the Red Sox having put Chris Sale on the mound to start the Wild Card Game, it's the Yankees who advance to the World Series. With Cole in the rotation, the Yankees go on to defeat the Dodgers in the World Series and, most likely, never play a seven-hour game that ends after 3 a.m. on the East Coast.
Sorry, Nate Eovaldi fans.