Good vibes in SD? Vlad Jr. on the move? Here are 5 fascinations in MLB

There’s always something fascinating going on in the world of baseball -- and there’s always something new. Every Friday morning throughout the season, heading into the weekend, inspired by *Zack Lowe’s terrific “10 Things I Like” NBA column for ESPN, we present the Five Fascinations, five fun things going on in the baseball world. Also, we’d like to shout out* the always excellent Ben Clemens at FanGraphs, another progenitor of a similar format. Submit your personal fascinations to will.leitch@mlb.com, or just yell at me about mine.

1. The vibes in San Diego are excellent again

For all the talk about how miserable the 2023 season was for the Mets, I’m not sure any team in baseball had worse vibes last year than the Padres. This was a team that had Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Josh Hader and NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, a team that had just beaten the hated Dodgers in the postseason the year before, a team that had a whole fanbase vibrating with excitement … that just fell flat on its face.

Despite a run differential that reflected a 92-win team, the Padres went 82-80, in large part because of a 9-23 record in one-run games and 2-12 record in extra-inning games. Any Padres fan can tell you: It sure felt like that team was going to lose every close game. The fallout was immediate, as manager Bob Melvin left, Soto got traded, Snell departed via free agency and the Padres felt like a team that had missed a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Well! A year later, the Padres are in a far better position. At roughly the midway point in the season, they’re three games over .500 and tied for the second NL Wild Card spot -- despite losing Soto, Snell and Melvin in addition to injuries to Bogaerts and Tatis and a down year from Machado. How are they doing it? Part of it is an out-of-nowhere fantastic season from one-time phenom Jurickson Profar, who sure looks like he’s going to start the All-Star Game. Part of it is the acquisition of Luis Arraez, who has provided a spark after being acquired from the Marlins in May. Part of it is a revamped rotation, led by a feisty, knuckleballing Matt Waldron. But a whole lot of it, frankly, is just vibes.

Their per-game run differential is actually worse than it was last year, but they’re a respectable 10-12 in one-run games and 3-0 in extra innings. Manager Mike Shildt has been a perfect fit, relaxed and fiery in the right mix. The team is playing with confidence and verve, particularly during a combative sweep of the Nationals this week. The main reason, though, honestly, might just be a rebalancing of the scales: The Padres just don’t seem to have the buzzard’s luck they did last year. Is that enough to get them in the playoffs? In the NL, it might just be.

2. Is the end nigh for the Blue Jays?

It sure feels like there’s a reckoning at hand in Toronto. The Blue Jays entered Thursday seven games under .500, 14 1/2 games out of first and 6 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, with six teams ahead of them. This was supposed to be a golden generation of young Blue Jays stars, but could that core be dismantled before long?

The clearest sign of this was an interview Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gave to Spanish-language media outlet Virus Deportivo in which he seemed to back off a long-standing insistence that he would never want to play for the Yankees. He has said, for “family reasons,” that he would never sign with the Yankees, “not even when I’m dead.” He is, uh, not saying that now.

To be clear, it doesn’t appear any sort of Yankees-Blue Jays trade is imminent, or even necessarily being discussed. But in the wake of Anthony Rizzo’s injury, the Yankees could certainly use a first baseman; imagine getting that one. More to the point: That Vlad Jr. is even bringing this up is a sign of how bad things are getting in Toronto, and how much pressure there is right now on that entire organization. If the Jays do start making some big moves to tear down their roster, it would end a deeply disappointing era for the franchise. Somehow, this phase of the Blue Jays would end with three playoff series and not a single playoff victory -- not even one game. Whether Vlad Jr. goes to the Yankees or not, it sure feels like Toronto may well be doing some serious retooling … and soon. It’s a shame.

3. The young kids are turning the corner

Jackson Chourio’s inside-the-park homer on Wednesday was one of the most exciting moments in a very exciting Brewers season so far, but it hardly came out of nowhere for Chourio. The 20-year-old, who remains the youngest player in the Majors, has finally started to turn the corner in June. He has an .840 OPS for the month, which is the highest on the team, and he actually leads the Brewers in extra-base hits in June despite only 63 plate appearances. Pretty good for a guy who is younger than Facebook.

The Brewers have serious pitching problems -- they just acquired 36-year-old Dallas Keuchel, who had spent the season at the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate -- and they’re going to need every bit of offense they can to stay atop the NL Central. Chourio’s emergence is happening at the exact right time.

It's worth noting that Chourio is not the only young rookie player to start the season on the big league roster who has begun to overcome his slow start. Wyatt Langford has been one of the few Rangers who is hitting lately, and the Tigers’ Colt Keith has begun to come around over the last fortnight as well. That’s huge for each of these teams and a reminder that young players are, in fact, young players: You have to give them time and not give up on them. We hope you’re hearing this, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Walker.

4. Are these Cardinals actually any good?

On Mother’s Day, the Cardinals sure looked cooked. A year after finishing in last place for the first time since 1990, they were 15-24 and back in the basement in the NL Central. Finishing last in St. Louis one season is a disaster; two seasons in a row could well lead to a complete front-office housecleaning.

But since then, the Cardinals have gone 26-14, the second-best record in baseball during that time. They have taken control of the second Wild Card spot in the NL and are only six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. (It doesn’t hurt that the rival Cubs are an NL-low 14-27 in the same span.)

The strangest thing about this is that it’s still not entirely clear that the Cardinals are all that good. They finished Wednesday with the third-worst run differential in the NL (ahead of only the Rockies and Marlins), both Paul Goldschmidt and (especially) Nolan Arenado have fallen off dramatically, Walker has been back at Triple-A since late April and the club doesn’t really have a fifth starter (and barely has a fourth). They’re really still a bit of a mess. And yet here they are.

How are they doing it? They’ve been led by their young players, namely Alec Burleson (25), Brendan Donovan (27) and, especially, shortstop Masyn Winn, who, at the age of 22, is putting together a legitimate case for NL Rookie of the Year consideration. Winn’s defense, and particularly his arm, was his calling card coming into the Majors, but he has been terrific with the bat as well. He has a 116 OPS+ and has solidified the Cardinals’ leadoff spot, leading all NL rookies in Baseball Reference WAR.

The team has gotten just enough starting pitching, led by Sonny Gray and a resurgent Miles Mikolas and Kyle Gibson, and excellent bullpen work from Ryan Helsley (who hasn’t blown a save in his last 27 games), to keep its head above water.

Is it all smoke and mirrors? Part of it certainly is. This team desperately needs Goldschmidt and Arenado to rebound. But you don’t have to be that great to nab an NL Wild Card spot. More to the point: Since Mother’s Day, the Cardinals have saved their season … and may have staved off some dramatic changes to a franchise that has traditionally resisted such change as much as any in baseball.

5. Some love from Mattoon, Illinois

On Wednesday night, Hayden Birdsong made his MLB debut for the Giants. Birdsong, the club's No. 6 prospect, was greeted with the fanfare you might expect for a team in a period of transition and in considerable need of a hot young pitcher to get excited about. He did well, striking out five in 4 2/3 innings of a game the Giants would win over the Cubs 4-3, and he’s slated to make his next start on July 6 in Cleveland.

But I hope you’ll indulge me, because my connection to Hayden Birdsong is far more personal. Birdsong grew up in Mattoon, a very small town in rural Illinois, about 45 minutes south of the University of Illinois and right in between St. Louis and Indianapolis, roughly two hours away from each.

There have been only two MLB players from Mattoon in the last 100 years: The other was outfielder Kyle Hudson, who had 28 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2011. I know this because my hometown is Mattoon, Ill., it’s where I grew up, it’s where every generation of Leitches since the 1800s has lived and it’s where my 10 aunts and uncles currently live; I graduated from Mattoon High School in 1993 and make it back there every year. It is my home.

And we are very proud of Hayden. His parents, Stacey and Paula (who still live in Mattoon), worked with my mother at Sarah Bush Lincoln Health Center, the hospital where my mother ran the emergency room for more than two decades. The Leitch family has known the Birdsong family for generations: They are excellent people. Mattoon is a baseball-mad town, one of those small Midwestern villages where baseball is the organizing principle for everything: Every Friday night, everyone heads out to Peterson Park to watch the American Legion or the Mattoon High School game.

That someone from Mattoon would make it to the Majors is a source of immense pride to the town, and to every family that knows the Birdsongs. The best part about this, of course, is that every baseball debut has a story like this, a town, a community, a family, the sort of connections that make everyone feel good and make the world feel a little bit smaller. Congratulations, Hayden. We’re all standing right out there beside you.

Fun Series of the Weekend: Guardians at Royals

Are the Royals in danger? One of baseball’s best stories this year has hit a real pothole in June, going 9-14 for the month and falling all the way to third place in the AL Central and into a virtual tie with the Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card entering Thursday. They’re catching the Guardians at the exact wrong time, as Cleveland entered the series with MLB’s second-best record. Considering the Royals lost 106 games last year, everything that has happened so far is an undeniable success. But Royals fans had dreams of a postseason appearance, a sense that this team was unique and potentially special. This is a major test. And if the Guardians stay hot … it could all get away from them.