Vlad's 10th HR keeps breakout season going

The Vlad Jr. breakout campaign continues.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. launched his 10th home run of the season in Saturday’s 4-0 win over the Phillies at TD Ballpark, and once again, this one soared to the opposite field. That’s been a trend for the 22-year-old star in his breakout season, and it’s one of the surest signs that Guerrero is locked in.

“It means he’s seeing the ball better and he’s letting the ball travel more,” said manager Charlie Montoyo. “That’s why he’s having good at-bats and going to the opposite field more. He’s doing such a great job of that and he’s been doing it all season.”

The 409-foot shot came on an Aaron Nola fastball that caught too much of the plate, but it’s important to frame how Guerrero got to that pitch. After taking a pitch on the inside edge to move the count to 1-1, Guerrero took two straight balls down and away to get into a hitter’s count, and when Nola was forced to throw Guerrero a strike, he was waiting for it.

With 10 home runs and 28 RBIs over his first 38 games, Guerrero is finally on a trajectory for the round numbers so many envisioned when he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2019. That means 40 home runs and 100 RBIs, the benchmarks of a slugger. Guerrero will always be a pure hitter first, with his power coming second, but that natural power is still overwhelming when he’s rolling.

“I never try to hit homers,” Guerrero said through a team translator. “I don’t consider myself a home run type of hitter. I just try to put good contact on the ball, and if it goes out, it goes out. So far, it’s good and hopefully it continues like this.”

Some days, Guerrero will show up to the ballpark and drag the Blue Jays to a win by himself. That happened a few times in April, but this lineup profiles as one that should keep opposing pitchers uncomfortable from one through nine, especially when George Springer returns from the IL. We’re seeing more signs of that coming to fruition lately, and it’s Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Cavan Biggio, two players who started slow, who are leading that.

Biggio doesn’t profile as a high-average hitter, but singled twice on Saturday and now has eight walks in his past eight games, which is his real calling card at the plate. Gurriel spent much of April hovering around a .200 average and .500 OPS, but has looked much more comfortable at the plate recently and, like Guerrero, has started driving the ball to the opposite field.

“Gurriel and myself, and all of the guys, we don’t quit,” Guerrero said. “When we’re going through rough times, we don’t quit and we trust each other. We trust our coaches. Gurriel is the type of guy who comes here every day and gives it all he has and works very hard. I’m very happy and I thank God that everything is going better now for him.”

Four runs were more than enough on Saturday because Anthony Kay bounced back with a strong outing and the depleted bullpen, once again, found a way to shut the door. Kay needed 79 pitches to get through four scoreless innings, but struck out six and likely earned a longer look in the rotation. The Blue Jays are in need of length right now from their young pitchers, which is why No. 30 prospect Nick Allgeyer was promoted prior to the game. As long as Kay looks like he did against the Phillies, he’ll have an opportunity to be part of the solution.

“He didn’t start very good with the walks and the pitches in front of a thin bullpen, but he made an adjustment and he gave us four big innings,” Montoyo said. “Of course, we were hoping for five, but his pitch count was around 80. He threw 79 and he made a great adjustment after that first inning to keep us in the game.”

The key for Kay moving forward will be getting that third strike on his first opportunity, instead of getting stuck in longer at-bats. His fastball was that out pitch coming up through the Minor Leagues and the Blue Jays love his aggression when he hammers away, so expect to see a more deliberate approach from the young lefty next time out.