A superstar's second-half surge is flying under the radar

No one can deny 2024 just hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ year.

It’s been a down season (marred by injury) for star shortstop Bo Bichette and a tough year for the rotation and bullpen, too. Toronto fell below .500 for good on April 30, and a Trade Deadline sale that sent Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García, Justin Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and other key pieces to contending clubs was by that point inevitable.

But for as disappointing a season as it’s been north of the border, the Blue Jays’ main bright spot sure is shining in 2024.

First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in the midst of a historically strong second half that’s boosting what has become a resurgent season at the plate -- a campaign flying a bit under the radar amid Toronto’s tough times.

Here’s what has made Guerrero so dangerous this season, how he’s changed as a hitter and why his standout year is worthy of recognition.

A standout year among the struggles

Even when you tear up the Minor Leagues, even when you’re MLB Pipeline’s preseason No. 1 prospect, even when your Hall of Fame father is there for advice, hitting in the Majors is hard.

Guerrero certainly found that out in his first two Major League seasons. With a .269 batting average and a .778 OPS, he was certainly an above-average hitter -- but not the star Blue Jays fans had been promised.

His 2021 changed that.

Guerrero, who turned 22 just weeks before the start of that regular season, put up one of the best offensive years in Toronto’s history. He posted a .311/.401/.601 slash line and led the Majors with 48 homers. If not for Shohei Ohtani’s two-way exploits, Guerrero would have been the youngest position-player MVP Award winner ever.

What made him so good that season? Guerrero proved to be aggressive at the plate, swinging at the first pitch a career-high 43.2% of the time and posting the highest fly ball rate (25.2%) of his career. Because of COVID-19 restrictions, the Blue Jays split their time between Dunedin, Fla.; Buffalo, N.Y.; and Toronto in 2021 -- and Guerrero reaped the rewards. Just look at his splits in home games that season, particularly at hitter-friendly parks in Dunedin and Buffalo.

Guerrero’s stats in home games, 2021
TD Ballpark, Dunedin: 21 G, .410/.521/.897 (1.418 OPS), 11 HR, 28 RBIs
Sahlen Field, Buffalo: 23 G, .321/.418/.762 (1.180 OPS), 10 HR, 20 RBIs
Rogers Centre, Toronto: 35 G, .294/.368/.566 (.935 OPS), 10 HR, 21 RBIs

Of course, those Toronto stats prove Guerrero was not just a product of smaller ballparks -- he was legitimately crushing the baseball. He ranked in the 98th percentile or better in major Statcast quality-of-contact metrics like expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Then he took a step back.

Guerrero’s OPS dropped to .818 in 2022 and .788 the following year. Sure, he was among MLB’s unluckiest hitters by xwOBA in 2023, but it wasn’t just that: He was chasing more pitches out of the zone, striking out more and barreling up the baseball less when he did make contact.

His struggles (which, to be fair, would hardly be considered struggles for hitters with lower expectations) continued into this season, with Guerrero batting as low as .188 a couple weeks in. Even as late as June 22, he had just eight home runs and a good-but-not-great .763 OPS on the season.

But it didn’t take long for Guerrero to prove he has a short memory -- not just when it comes to putting his struggles behind him, but also to avoid fixating on his breakout 2021.

"To be honest with you, I try not to think about what happened a couple of years ago," Guerrero said on Aug. 3.

‘He’s on every single pitch’

After the 25-year-old superstar’s recent run of play, it might be hard for Blue Jays fans NOT to conjure up images of 2021 in their head.

All Guerrero has done since the All-Star break is bat .400 with an .825 slugging percentage and a 1.304 OPS. He has crushed 12 home runs in just 32 games -- a 60-homer pace over a 162-game season.

Yankees star Aaron Judge -- the only player with a higher slugging percentage than Guerrero since the break -- knows about hitting homers at a prodigious rate, and he came away impressed by Guerrero as usual when the two teams last matched up in early August.

"That's the Vladdy I've seen, year after year," Judge said. "It's impressive to see his approach. He just looks like he's never off balance, never fooled. He's on every single pitch.”

But for as much as Guerrero’s production of late is reminiscent of his standout 2021, the Toronto star has reinvented himself at the plate.

For starters, Guerrero has been much more selective, seeing more pitches than ever in the strike zone but swinging at fewer of them than ever. He’s been much less aggressive on first pitches, going after them at a career-low 27.8% clip. He’s chasing less than the past two seasons, too.

And while he’s not hitting the ball quite as hard as he did in 2021 -- when he posted a 95.1 mph average exit velocity -- Guerrero has optimized his swing for hard, line-drive contact. His 27.1% line-drive rate is a career high, and he’s popping up at a career-low clip. Fewer fly balls make it hard for Guerrero to approach his 48-homer total from three years ago, but he’s just two off a career high in doubles with more than a month left to play in the season.

Another new asset to Guerrero’s game? His speed. Sure, he’ll never be a real threat on the bases, but Guerrero’s 27.2 ft/sec sprint speed in 2024 is a career high and in the 47th percentile of MLB. His sprint speed in 2023 (26.4 ft/sec) was nearly a foot per second slower, which might not seem like a lot but can certainly be the difference between an infield hit and a weak groundout. (Guerrero is one of only a dozen qualified baserunners to gain at least 0.8 mph of average sprint speed from 2023-24.)

Put it all together -- plate discipline, respectable speed and elite quality of contact -- and it’s not hard to see why Guerrero ranks among MLB’s elite hitters. His .412 expected wOBA entering Friday ranked sixth in the Majors, between the Braves' Marcell Ozuna and Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

And just since the All-Star break? Guerrero’s xwOBA is .497, behind only Juan Soto and Judge (both at .532).

"I think he's pretty darned close [to a Judge-level impact] right now," Blue Jays manager John Schneider said on Aug. 3. "I think teams are definitely taking notice of that, and I think Vladdy has responded in a good way to counteract that with his approach."

What’s next for Vladdy, Jays?

Exactly what that approach is -- or how it might have changed -- isn’t quite clear. But Guerrero is certainly sticking to it.

Speaking through team interpreter Hector Lebron on Aug. 9, the Toronto first baseman repeatedly made mention of a consistent strategy at the dish -- no matter the circumstances.

“I’ve got to believe in my plan,” Guerrero said. “You know, every pitch, every pitcher is different. They’re going to come with something different. So I have a different plan for every pitcher. When I get to home plate, I’m going to make sure that I do my plan.”

That plan has certainly paid off in 2024 for the star slugger, whose overall numbers entering Friday include a .316/.389/.546 slash line, 26 homers and 81 RBIs in 127 games. While his raw stats don’t look to be quite on par with that sensational 2021 campaign, Guerrero’s park- and league-adjusted OPS+ is nearly even: 163 this year, compared with 167 in ’21.

It’s been the type of year the Blue Jays needed out of Guerrero, even in a lost season. Toronto’s Deadline fire sale was often rumored to include the young star, who is under contract through next season and surely would have fetched a large return.

Instead, Guerrero will be the focus of a pivotal 2025 for the Blue Jays. It’s easy to see a path to contention -- Bichette stays healthy and productive, the rotation improves, and the prospects acquired at the Deadline make an impact -- but it’ll be up to Guerrero to put together back-to-back standout seasons for the first time, all while dealing with looming free agency and questions about whether he will sign a contract extension with Toronto.

No matter what happens, though, it appears Guerrero will be back in the national spotlight next season -- and given what he’s done in 2024, that’s a good thing for everyone.