8 upcoming free agents who need strong finishes

While Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are cemented as the top overall player and pitcher, respectively, in the upcoming free-agent class, many walk-year players are still trying to solidify where they stand with a month left in the regular season.

That may not seem like a lot of time, but it could prove to be an eternity for a select group of players looking to improve their value before testing the open market.

Obviously, teams consider a player's entire body of work, along with a host of additional factors, when making free-agent decisions. But that doesn't mean there isn't something to be gained from finishing the season strong. Here are eight impending free agents with a lot riding on the next month.

All stats below are through Tuesday.

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Four first basemen in MLB history have signed contracts worth $200 million or more: Miguel Cabrera (extension), Albert Pujols (free agency), Joey Votto (extension) and Prince Fielder (free agency). Will Alonso become the fifth? At this point, it’s still uncertain.

With negative defensive and baserunning value, much of Alonso’s free-agent appeal is tied to his power. However, he has the lowest slugging percentage (.470) and isolated power (.225) of his career this season and is on pace for 34 homers, 12 fewer than he hit in 2023. The right-handed slugger has been worth 1.9 WAR (per FanGraphs), which ranks seventh among primary first basemen. Set to turn 30 in December, Alonso can allay some of the concerns about his declining pop with a big finish.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Cubs
One of several high-profile Scott Boras clients who remained unsigned last offseason until Spring Training had already begun, Bellinger ended up returning to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal that gives him the ability to opt out at the end of the 2024 campaign. But with the way he has performed this season, his opt-out decision could go either way. The 29-year-old has produced a .269/.328/.423 slash with 13 homers, eight steals and 1.5 fWAR, down from .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals and 4.4 fWAR a year ago.

Matt Chapman, 3B, Giants
Another Boras client who didn’t sign until after Spring Training was underway, Chapman seems more likely to opt out of his contract -- a three-year, $54 million deal with San Francisco -- than Bellinger at this juncture. After a slow start that saw him hit .205 with four homers and a .586 OPS over his first 39 games, Chapman has recorded a .264/.366/.493 slash with 17 homers in his past 91 games. Overall, the defensive whiz has been worth 4.2 fWAR, the third-best figure among third basemen behind José Ramírez and Rafael Devers.

Still, it would behoove Chapman to maintain his positive momentum at the plate so he can return to free agency in the strongest possible position, unlike last offseason when he hit the open market on the heels of a .574 OPS over the final two months.

Max Fried, SP, Braves
While Burnes is sure to be the most coveted starter on the market this offseason, it was Fried who led MLB in ERA (minimum 400 innings) across 2020-23. But after recording a 2.66 ERA with a 4.16 K/BB ratio and a 3.03 FIP in that span, Fried has regressed in his final year before free agency, pitching to a 3.50 ERA with a 2.74 K/BB ratio and a 3.38 FIP. That includes a 5.26 ERA with a 4.2 BB/9 over five starts since he returned from left elbow neuritis earlier this month.

Fried should have a robust market regardless of what happens down the stretch, but a strong finish would certainly help the 30-year-old’s chances of landing a deal in excess of $200 million.

Sean Manaea, SP, Mets
After opting out of the final year of his two-year, $25 million deal with the Giants last offseason, Manaea ended up inking a similar contract with the Mets -- two years, $28 million with an opt-out after the first season. The 32-year-old lefty is not only all but guaranteed to exercise his opt-out again but is also positioning himself to earn a much larger payday if he can continue his recent dominance. Manaea has struck out double-digit batters in three of his past six starts, posting a 2.87 ERA with a 48-to-7 K/BB ratio over 37 2/3 innings in that span.

Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres
A former top prospect turned journeyman, Profar has authored one of the best stories of the 2024 season, earning his first All-Star selection less than a year after being released by the Rockies. With 21 homers and an NL-leading .384 on-base percentage, Profar is already poised to sign a bigger contract this offseason than the one-year, $1 million contract he inked with the Padres in February. But given his production prior to 2024 (lifetime 92 OPS+), there are already going to be doubts about his ability to keep this up. A poor finish would add fuel to that fire.

Blake Snell, SP, Giants
Despite winning his second career Cy Young Award in 2023, Snell didn’t get the megadeal he was looking for in free agency, with questions about his durability and control suppressing his stock. He ultimately signed a two-year, $62 million deal with an opt-out at the end of 2024, then proceeded to post a 9.51 ERA with a 5.32 BB/9 over his first six starts while making multiple trips to the injured list.

Snell recaptured his Cy Young form after returning from his second IL stint, putting together an absolutely electric stretch in which he threw a no-hitter and recorded a 1.03 ERA with a 70-to-16 K/BB ratio over 52 1/3 innings from July 9 through Aug. 18, but he followed that up by walking six batters over three innings on Aug. 24. Snell is expected to opt out, but he doesn’t have much margin for error as he looks to develop a more robust free-agent market than he had last offseason.

Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees
While Torres has never come close to replicating his breakout 2019 season (38 HR, 128 OPS+), he was an above-average performer (115 OPS+) across 2022-23 while ranking second among primary second basemen in home runs (49). Torres’ production has dropped off a cliff in his final season before free agency: He has hit .242 with 12 homers and a .683 OPS (92 OPS+) over 126 games. But considering the other second basemen who will be available in free agency this offseason and the lack of production many teams around MLB are getting from that position, the opportunity is still there for Torres to elevate his free-agent value.