Sleeper picks who could dominate the decade

Who will be the players of the next decade?

There are current stars at their peak, youngsters who have already made a big splash, and even top prospects who have yet to debut. All are reasonable guesses.

But this wouldn’t be baseball if everything went according to plan. Players who are on top now will get hurt or underwhelm, and unexpected stars will emerge.

MLB’s new Vault contest is asking fans to pick which individuals and teams will lead the league in nine different categories from 2020-29. As in decades past, some of the answers that ultimately prove correct would qualify as sleepers today.

• Win $1,000,000 by predicting the decade's best

Here is a look at four of those categories. For each, we will identify a model sleeper from a recent decade and then find three current comps, heading into 2020. To be sure, each of these players will be a long shot to lead The Show over the next decade. But as past precedent shows, those sometimes pay off.

Most home runs

The model: Nelson Cruz (2010s)
Nobody went deep more in this recently concluded decade than Cruz (346). It was an astounding turn of events for a player who reached his 30s on July 1, 2010, and entered that year with 55 career homers. True, 33 of those had come in a breakout, All-Star 2009 campaign with the Rangers. But even if you believed Cruz was for real, his age would have seemed disqualifying. Instead, his 244 big flies over the past six seasons ranks fifth all-time from ages 33-38. This run came after Cruz accepted a 50-game suspension in 2013 as part of MLB’s investigation into Biogenesis.

The comps

Mitch Garver, Twins (age 29 in 2020): Cruz's teammate came out of nowhere to slug 31 homers last season, while posting a .995 OPS, and his underlying numbers make him a breakout hitter who looks like the real deal. The big challenge -- aside from his age -- is that Garver is a catcher. That limits playing time and wears a player down, so if Garver is still bashing big flies in the late 2020s, it likely will be as a first baseman and/or DH.

Jorge Soler, Royals (age 28 in 2020): There was a time when Soler was greatly hyped, but the Cuba native had difficulty staying healthy to earn a regular role with the Cubs or Royals. Finally, everything came together in 2019, when Soler played 162 games and took advantage with an American League-leading 48 homers -- more than he had hit (38) in his 307 previous games.

Luke Voit, Yankees (age 29 in 2020): A 22nd-round pick in the 2013 Draft, Voit mashed in the Minors but didn’t get much of a chance in St. Louis before his July 2018 trade to the Bronx. He has since smacked 35 homers in roughly a full season’s worth of playing time (658 plate appearances). Voit couldn’t replicate his late-2018 numbers last year, but he had a .901 OPS and 17 homers in 78 games before a serious hernia injury interfered. Now healthy again, Voit will try to resume his late breakout.

Most hits

The model: Elvis Andrus (2010s)
Andrus tied for fifth in the decade with 1,595 hits -- 100 behind Robinson Canó -- but not by producing any huge individual seasons. However, he was only 21 when the 2010s began, played at least 147 games in nine of the 10 seasons and got the vast majority of his starts at or near the top of the Rangers' lineup. So Andrus just steadily piled up knocks. A consensus top-100 prospect in the Minors, Andrus had finished as the AL Rookie of the Year Award runner-up in 2009, but his .267/.329/.373 line and 128 hits in 2009 were not an obvious prelude to the all-decade leaderboard.

The comps

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals (age 24 in 2020): A three-time top-50 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Mondesi was similarly young for his level throughout his time in the Minors. After struggling mightily in limited MLB time from ages 20-21, the talented shortstop broke out in 2018 with a .276 average, .804 OPS, 14 homers and 32 steals in 75 games. But he took a step back in an injury-plagued ‘19 and has yet to prove he has the sort of durability that was so key for Andrus.

Víctor Robles, Nationals (age 23 in 2020): Another hyped prospect, Robles has shown great speed and exceptional center field defense in the Majors, but the bat has been somewhat underwhelming. Robles did play 155 games in 2019, although he hit .255 and struck out 140 times while fitting mostly into the bottom-third of the lineup. There is a high ceiling here, but a lot to prove.

Amed Rosario, Mets (age 24 in 2020): There have been distinct signs of improvement since Rosario’s 2017 debut, with this past season giving hope to those who believe he can both stick at shortstop and become an impact hitter. The speedy Rosario was fifth in the National League with 177 hits in 2019, backing up his .287 average with a .291 expected average.

Most pitcher wins

The model: Jamie Moyer (2000s)
Only two other left-handers, Andy Pettitte and Randy Johnson, won more games in that decade, and it’s still hard to believe. Yes, Moyer had been good over the previous four seasons (59-25 with a 125 ERA+). But he also had no track record of consistent success before that, and more importantly, was already 37 when Y2K struck. The soft-tossing southpaw turned out to be a unique case, winning more games after age 36 (151) than anyone in history besides Phil Niekro, while pitching for strong teams in Seattle and Philadelphia.

The comps

Zack Greinke, Astros (age 36 in 2020): Let’s acknowledge two things here. One: Greinke is far and away more accomplished at this point than Moyer was heading into 2000. And two: Expecting anyone to play into their 40s is objectively absurd. But Greinke is aging gracefully and always marches to his own beat. Is it that hard to imagine him deciding to play forever and pitching well enough to do so?

J.A. Happ, Yankees (age 37 in 2020): Some of the similarities here are striking, and not just because Moyer was Happ’s teammate on the 2007-10 Phillies. Happ is a 37-year-old lefty as the decade begins -- he had 62 career wins and an up-and-down track record through age 32 (Moyer had 59), then went 59-29 with a 115 ERA+ over the past four seasons. Happ could easily notch his seventh straight season with double-digit W's this year pitching for a talented Yankees club, but several more years is an enormous stretch.

Aníbal Sánchez, Nationals (age 36 in 2020): It was only a few years ago that it looked like he was done, but Sánchez has rejuvenated his career. His sensational performance in Game 1 of last year’s NL Championship Series against the Cardinals was a perfect encapsulation of the new Sánchez, as he gave hitters fits by mixing six pitches -- including his “butterfly” changeup -- in a 7 2/3-inning, one-hitter. Will Sánchez actually pitch effectively into his 40s? Probably not, but he’s the sort of pitcher who could.

Most strikeouts

The model: Javier Vázquez (2000s)
The right-hander was generally underappreciated, but he had good timing (23 years old in 2000), enviable durability (216 innings per season for the decade) and a strikeout rate that was well above average for the era. The result was 2,001 Ks in the 2000s, second only to Randy Johnson. Vázquez had struggled in two seasons before the turn of the century, though, going 14-23 with a 5.56 ERA for the 1998-99 Expos.

The comps

Dylan Bundy, Angels (age 27 in 2020): He’s four years older than Vázquez was, and more experienced. But after battling early injuries, Bundy has averaged 168 innings since 2017, with an above-average strikeout rate and one of the game’s most effective sliders -- even as the ultimate results were only so-so (92 ERA+). There’s hope that getting out of a bad situation in Baltimore will ignite a career renaissance for the former top prospect.

Dinelson Lamet, Padres (age 27 in 2020): Age aside, Lamet has essentially one season’s worth of MLB experience (35 starts, 187 1/3 innings), bookending Tommy John surgery. Both before and since the injury, Lamet has shown a penchant for walks and posted ERAs over 4.00, though he also displayed elite strikeout ability. The question here is whether the innings will be there.

Reynaldo López, White Sox (age 26 in 2020): A top-50 prospect when he was traded to Chicago, López has made 65 starts over the past two seasons, with uneven results. He throws hard and has looked sharp at times -- there were three games with double-digit strikeouts last year -- but it hasn’t yet translated to consistent success. López still has a rotation spot, is working on some mental adjustments and will hope to follow teammate Lucas Giolito in making a big leap forward this year.