5 under-the-radar trade targets at the Deadline

Trade season is here, and as hard as it may be to believe, there will actually be players discussed and moved who aren’t Shohei Ohtani, who is expected to suck up all the rumor oxygen in the room despite how unlikely it is the Angels will actually trade him.

Instead, while we focus on some of the other big names who could be on the move, we might find ourselves overlooking several of the lesser-considered players who might make some major impact on pennant races, both now and in the future. Like last year, when we talked so much about Juan Soto, Luis Castillo and Josh Hader, yet some of the moves that actually mattered the most were the quieter ones that sent J.D. Davis to San Francisco, Yennier Cano to Baltimore and Jose Siri to Tampa Bay.

Or, far more recently: If you're wondering why the first-place Orioles would bother to trade for a reliever with an 8.57 ERA (Shintaro Fujinami) from the last-place A's, well, it's because of this. It's because that ERA obscures how much he's changed the way he pitches and how much more effective he's been lately. It's because the best teams look well under the hood, beyond just batting averages and ERAs.

So: Who are some of those under-the-radar names for 2023? It depends, of course, in large part in how you even define that term. Ohtani is not “under the radar.” Big, potentially-moveable names having decent-to-good seasons like Max Scherzer, Cody Bellinger, Lucas Giolito, Andrew McCutchen or Dylan Cease are not “under the radar.” Recently highly-regarded prospects like Dylan Carlson are not “under the radar.”

These names, either due to low profiles or seemingly poor 2023 seasons, are. Your mileage may vary. (Stats are through Thursday's games.)

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Nationals

Once a reasonably well-regarded Cubs prospect, Candelario had an up-and-down tenure in Detroit, posting a very good 125 OPS+ in 2020-21, but performing so poorly in 2022 (82 OPS+) that the lowly Tigers simply chose not to even offer him a contract last winter. He's been merely a league-average bat for his career (102 OPS+), or less than that if you choose just to look at batting average (.243).

That was good news for the Nationals, who signed him to a one-year deal and have watched him not only hit like he did before 2022 (with a 128 OPS+), but improve his fielding, too, going from -6 Outs Above Average to +6. (There’s some evidence that the shift limits have helped him here, because he was routinely poor while shifted over to the shortstop or second-base areas of the field -- places he never has to worry about being in 2023.) Candelario’s strikeout rate (20.7%) is a career low; his groundball rate (37.3%) is a career low as well.

He’s been so good, in fact, that he’s fourth in WAR among third basemen. While no one really thinks of him as “better than Rafael Devers, Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado,” players like that aren’t available. There's only approximately $2 million left on his contract, so there’s not a team in the sport that couldn’t afford him as a supporting piece to reinforce the bottom third of the lineup -- and a switch-hitter who is providing above-average production on both sides of the ball is a lot more valuable than his reputation might project.

Potential fits: Brewers, Marlins, Phillies, Yankees

Carlos Hernández, RP, Royals

A pitcher who is 0-10 over the last two years, with zero career saves, and a career 4.80 ERA? Not exactly the high-profile addition you're hoping your team makes, is it?

If you knew Hernández before this season, then you either live in Missouri or you’ve been watching the fastball velocity leaderboards: His four-seamer topped 100 mph on 48 different occasions in parts of three seasons through the end of 2022. Impressive as that may be, it’s hardly the same thing as being a productive pitcher; Hernández entered this season with a 5.12 career ERA, including last year’s 7.39 disaster, and somehow managed to strike out only 31 batters in 35 innings, a shockingly low rate for someone with such elite velocity. Heat aside, he was hardly on anyone’s breakout list.

Because of that track record, and because he plays for a last-place Royals team that seems destined to lose more than 100 games, and because he’s got an 0-5 record with 0 saves, it’s easy to miss what Hernández has done. He’s been absolutely fantastic, beyond what his 3.86 ERA might suggest. He’s more than doubled his strikeout rate, giving him by far 2023’s largest whiff increase.

He’s throwing his unimpressive curveball less than last year, and less as the season has gone on; he’s cut his walk rate to a career low; he's allowed just one run in his last 12 outings; he is, somehow, throwing even harder.

Hernández, 26, can’t be a free agent until after 2027, so there’s also an argument for Kansas City to just keep him. On the other hand, the Royals are miles away from contention, and it’s the rare reliever that you can count on to be consistently, reliably good, year after year, especially one with a lack of a track record like this -- something Kansas City saw up close with Josh Staumont. It might make more sense to cash him in right now.

Potential fits: He’s a hard-throwing controllable relief pitcher. Every contender could use a hard-throwing controllable relief pitcher.

Lance Lynn, SP, White Sox

Look, if you’re going to be considered “under the radar,” then there’s got to be something that puts you down there, right? In Lynn’s case, it’s not the track record that’s the problem, because he’s been an above-average pitcher for more than decade now. Instead, it’s all the flashing red flags -- like the fact that he’s 36, and has a 6.08 ERA, and that his four-seam velocity is down two full ticks from what it was in 2019 to a near career low.

But if you’re willing to look a little more deeply, you might be interested to note two factors here:

1) He’s just as effective as he’s ever been against right-handed hitters. They’re hitting just .200/.276/.338 against him this year, which is essentially the same as his career average. Whatever his problem is, it’s mostly not this.

2) His strikeout rate is up. Lynn is striking out nearly 28% of batters he’s faced, which is well above the Major League average and would be his highest since 2019.

So what’s the issue here? It’s lefties, and it’s homers, though it’s nearly impossible for fly balls to continue reaching the seats as often as they have -- his HR/FB rate of 20.3% is nearly double the league average of 12%. There are signs of life here, anyway; in his last five starts, he's got a stellar 47/9 K/BB.

Potential fits: Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Orioles, Rays

Joe Kelly, RP, White Sox

Like his Chicago teammate in Lynn, there are red flags galore here. Kelly is 35 years old, his 4.82 ERA this year looks good only when compared to last year’s ugly 6.08 mark, and worst of all, he just missed two weeks with a sore elbow -- though it wasn't serious and he's expected to be activated this week.

Seems bad, right? But that ERA is inflated by a few bad games -- name your advanced ERA estimator, they all think he’s been better than that, whether it’s FIP (3.21) or xERA (3.00) or DRA (3.35) -- and his 31% strikeout rate is ever so close to last year’s career high. He’s throwing essentially as hard as he ever has, averaging 99 mph on his four-seamer, and the slider he’s used on and off over the years is now coming in at 91.6 mph, having allowed a mere .133 average against this year.

Plus, if you value postseason experience, Kelly has plenty of it, appearing in 40 games over eight Octobers with the Cardinals, Red Sox and Dodgers, winning rings in 2018 (Boston) and 2020 (Los Angeles). He even comes with a team option for 2024, should you want to retain him.

Potential fits: See Hernández. Everyone needs a reliever.

Lane Thomas, RF/DH, Nationals

Another in the seemingly endless line of ex-Cardinal hitters to find success elsewhere -- we joke, a little, because St. Louis acquired Jon Lester for Thomas, and Lester was solid enough down the stretch in 2021. Thomas has had a breakout season for Washington, pairing an outstanding 128 OPS+ (.289/.337/.482) with an extremely valuable outfield throwing arm. While a .363 BABIP might suggest he won’t be quite this good all year, it’s not exactly out of nowhere, either. He posted an above-average 105 OPS+ in parts of four seasons before this one, and 94th percentile speed should help him keep beating out some infield hits.

Still, the best position for him might be in a platoon situation. Thomas’s 1.041 OPS against lefties is in the top 10 in the game this year; over the course of his career, that’s .901. That’s due, in some part, to the fact that he has a much larger strikeout rate against righties (27%) than he does against lefties (19%), and it’s worth pointing out that three teams who are in the hunt for division titles (Guardians, Twins, Brewers) are the three teams with the weakest performances against lefty pitchers by corner outfielders or designated hitters.

Despite the fact that he feels somewhat new on the scene, it’s been more than four years since his Major League debut, and he’s also turning 28 in August, making it unlikely he’ll be on the next Nationals team to seriously contend.

Potential fits: Brewers, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Giants, Yankees