Are the Twins likely to trade the AL batting champ?

The Twins entered this offseason with plenty of money and a relatively depleted farm system -- with that in mind, it’s safe to say that free agency didn’t prove fruitful for the organization, which not only missed on bringing back Carlos Correa but also acquired only Christian Vázquez and Joey Gallo in addition to its earlier trade for Kyle Farmer.

Minnesota will have to use the trade market to salvage an offseason that started with high hopes -- but time is ticking, and the club’s margin for error in taking away from a third-place team to add elsewhere on the roster is quite low. Here are three things I’m thinking about the Twins as we head into 2023.

1. Health -- more than the offseason -- will drive the 2023 Twins’ outcome

One way to look at the big picture of Minnesota's offseason is that it's a 78-84 team that has since lost one of its most significant pieces in Correa -- without any major acquisitions to balance that out. I’m going to stop short of saying that indicates on its own that the team will take a step back on paper -- because the ‘22 team’s end result was short of its talent level.

It was (and remains) important for the Twins to improve that roster. It’s just as critical for them to get more than 104 games from Jorge Polanco, more than 92 games from Byron Buxton and more than 45 games from Alex Kirilloff.

Health isn’t a satisfactory way of targeting improvement, because the Twins have more control over roster composition than the afflictions to an admittedly injury-prone roster. But the injury-driven lows of 2022 mean that there’s good improvement to be had there, and in my mind the Twins’ fortunes in ‘23 rely primarily on the health of Kirilloff, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda.

Any measure of health from those three could give the Twins an extra, say, 120 games of a pure hitter they viewed as a high-floor bat and 30 starts from mid-tier to front-end rotation veterans. If they’re healthy, that’s a lot of potential value. If they’re not, it’s tough to imagine the Twins having a successful season -- with or without additions.

2. Now is not the time for a Luis Arraez trade

With the signing of Gallo to further add to the (already robust) corner outfield depth, it seems all the more evident that the Twins will eventually trade an outfielder -- perhaps Max Kepler -- to ease congestion and find some return. Another name that has been thrown around in the public this offseason is that of Luis Arraez. Is that a good idea?

The argument for doing so is that at age 25, Arraez already has no defensive home and a history of knee troubles that might mean his value will never be higher as he comes off a Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance and a batting title. It’ll likely take a player of his caliber to fill one of the Twins’ needs with a true impact talent.

In a vacuum, I agree with all that. But now isn’t the time. Arraez is the only returning starter who played in more than 125 games last season, and one of only four returning starters who was above league average in OPS+. That’s not to mention the clubhouse impact of losing not only Correa, but also Arraez, who was a subject of marvel for many as he raced to his batting title.

3. I’m relatively high on the talent in the bullpen

One area in which I’m confident the Twins will be better is in the relief corps, where underperformance played into Minnesota’s downfall in ‘22. This group might have the best raw arm talent in a Twins bullpen in recent memory.

There’s the bullpen ace in Jhoan Duran and triple-digit talents in Jorge Alcala, Trevor Megill and Jorge López, whom I expect to be better after his adjustment period. Caleb Thielbar has been a steady lefty, and I think this is the year Jovani Moran takes the next step. Griffin Jax really blossomed in ‘22, and has a year of experience under his belt.

Emilio Pagán’s return wasn’t taken kindly by many fans, but keep in mind that the stuff is still good -- he wouldn’t keep getting jobs otherwise -- and instead of relying on him as a key high-leverage piece, he could be a low-risk, high-upside arm who could start as low as sixth in the bullpen pecking order -- with a chance to earn more.