How will Twins approach the Trade Deadline?
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DETROIT -- The trade market has picked up quickly over the past few days, particularly with relievers starting to move, along with a handful of position players. There hasn’t been much action when it comes to starters -- except James Paxton being sent to the Red Sox after being designated for assignment by the Dodgers -- which is the Twins’ greatest area of interest.
President of baseball operations Derek Falvey spoke to the media recently about the club’s general approach to the Trade Deadline. Here are a few highlights:
On the need for pitching
Falvey: “No one has a surplus of anything, but you feel like you have a lot of guys in that room that can contribute to a winning offense and defense. Everyone's always looking for pitching. If there's ways to add to the pitching group -- because of the realities of health and some of the challenges you deal with -- that would be a hope in terms of how you navigate this.”
Analysis: The Twins have a top-five offense in the Major Leagues by both FanGraphs WAR and wRC+ metrics. That seemingly puts them on solid offensive footing, especially with a healthy Royce Lewis -- who, of course, homered Saturday in his second game back from injury. Jose Miranda also rejoined the club on Saturday and Minnesota hopes Carlos Correa (plantar fasciitis) can return from his absence soon.
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The pitching staff has not been a glaring issue by any means -- it actually ranks ninth in fWAR -- but with the struggles of Chris Paddack and Louie Varland, the depth is thinner than the Twins would like, which makes a starting arm the biggest priority.
The question, then, is whether the Twins will be able to acquire a pitcher who would displace Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober from a potential postseason start. Another option -- in a very competitive pitching market -- would be to add a pitcher with some upside who could slot into the rotation down the stretch and at least pitch himself into the playoff mix.
On looking for rentals vs. controllable players
Falvey: “I don’t think I view it any differently in the sense that when you get into a Trade Deadline, if there are ways to acquire a player that you think is going to impact you over multiple seasons -- multiple playoff runs hopefully -- you want that rather than one that might just help you for a portion of a season. If we can intersect there, that’s great, but we have to think through [deals] where that isn’t the case.”
Analysis: The Twins are never really in position to consider things differently, as their market size tends to give them a reliance on homegrown players and cost-controlled contracts (pre-free agency or otherwise) to put forth a well-rounded roster.
But as Falvey alluded to at the end here, this year might be more of an outlier in that regard.
There is a sense that payroll considerations will come into play as the Twins navigate this Trade Deadline and offseason, especially with Pablo López due a $13.5 million raise next season.
Even beyond the finances, the Twins already have each of their current top seven starters -- López, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Varland -- under contract next season.
The group of potential rentals when it comes to starting pitchers is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays and Jack Flaherty of the Tigers, each of whom would certainly have playoff upside -- but that’s likely to be a hotly contested market.
On matching up on a need-for-need deal
Falvey: “I do think that we have to stay open-minded to those types of discussions. They are active in that sense. There are good players in that room, so teams have hit us on them and said, ‘Hey, [let us know] if you are open to some kind of swap.’ It’s rare that I’ve heard -- yet -- a Major Leaguer for a Major Leaguer version of that.”
Analysis: These are rare, but we’ve already seen one ahead of this Deadline between the Orioles and Phillies. Baltimore sent 2023 All-Star outfielder Austin Hays to Philadelphia in exchange for fellow outfielder Cristian Pache and reliever Seranthony Domínguez.
This sort of thing would certainly make sense for the Twins, who have a glut of depth in the infield -- and perhaps even in the corner outfield spots -- but the push-and-pull is always tricky to navigate, and Falvey indicated that no serious discussions of this sort had really materialized involving Minnesota within the past week.