Where will Twins turn after losing 2 starters?

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The Winter Meetings aren’t even upon us yet, but the two free agents who the Twins lost from their rotation -- Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray -- have already found new homes, leaving the club looking elsewhere for pitching.

Maeda quickly agreed to a two-year, $24 million deal with the Tigers, and 2023 Cy Young runner-up Gray soon followed with a three-year, $75 million contract with the Cardinals. With former Twins hurlers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson snapped up by St. Louis as well, an already shallow free-agent pitching market continues to dwindle.

The pitching staff was the bedrock of the Twins’ success last season, and now, they’ll be looking to replace Gray’s exemplary production while also addressing their other needs -- namely, center field and a right-handed bat for first base and the outfield.

“I think where we felt we were and some of those teams that proceeded further than we did -- we don't see as big of a gap,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said at the GM Meetings in early November. “We think Pablo [López] lines up with anybody at the top. We think we have some premium guys in the middle of the order that can go stack up with any of these guys, too. I think when we look at that, that gives us a lot of optimism.”

But with the Twins having said that their payroll will likely decrease compared to their Opening Day 2023 value of $153 million, how can they walk this tightrope as they still seek improvement, look to build on their success and defend their American League Central championship? Here are three questions that could play into that:

1. Who are they willing to trade?
If history is any indication, the trade market will likely be a factor. This front office braintrust simply has not shown a propensity to pay the open market value for needle-moving starting pitchers, which can likely be attributed to the greater risk that pitchers represent and the inability for them to impact the team every day.

Minnesota has gotten around that by trading for pitchers who are relatively cost controlled before they hit free agency or by finding short-term, lower-value deals to plug the gaps.

The trade market could also make sense given the composition of this roster. Longtime cornerstones like Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler could be intriguing options for trade partners given their production and relative cost control, as well as the presence of youngsters who are able to fill their positions. There’s also Christian Vázquez, who had a disappointing first year in Minnesota and lost all postseason playing time to Ryan Jeffers.

If the Twins are to find meaningful pitching help, though, one or more of those veterans might not be enough -- and they’re likely going to be counting on prospects in the upper levels of the Minors like Austin Martin, David Festa and Brooks Lee to provide meaningful help in the Majors in 2024. Would they be willing to part with, say, No. 4 prospect Marco Raya in a bigger deal?

2. How urgent is the need for pitching?
This is a significant question, because there are other needs. The argument could be made that finding another Byron Buxton insurance option (like Michael A. Taylor last season) or another meaningful right-handed bat could be more pressing than replacing the lost production of Gray and Maeda.

Finding replacements for Gray and Maeda certainly feels more urgent due to the recency of their departures, but it’s also worth noting that, as of this moment, the Twins could still fill out a full rotation with López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland, which is not a place they’ve often been entering offseasons in the past.

“It's not just a pitching, pitching, pitching focus -- though we're always focused on, ‘How do we add pitching? How do we develop it?’” Falvey said. “But we do feel like we walk into this offseason maybe with a better overall pitching group than we've walked into any of our recent offseasons.”

With that said, the Twins were in this situation last offseason and they still traded for López and bumped Ober from their Opening Day rotation -- a move that proved prudent due to injuries sustained by Maeda and Tyler Mahle. With there still being talk of potentially leaving Varland in the bullpen, depth would certainly help -- and it’s likely there will be some reinforcements on the way.

Still, if the Twins are going to be allocating trade resources or free-agent funds for additions, it is worth wondering what sector of the roster stands to gain most from reinforcement.

3. How long are they willing to wait?
In theory, the Twins could find answers to these questions internally, particularly with regard to first base. Jose Miranda could be in the picture in some capacity, though to what extent likely won’t be clear until Spring Training.

Remember, the Twins didn’t sign Donovan Solano -- who played a significant role in 2023 -- until well into Spring Training. There’s still value to be had in those sorts of signings after the Twins have a better sense for where Buxton and Miranda are health-wise and performance-wise.

There is risk, though, in that -- whether it’s pitching or role players. The Twins would be at the mercy of the market and have to choose from the players still available, at which point many desirable options would likely be signed to other organizations.