Revamped bullpen may be key to Twins' success in 2024

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The offseason went by mostly quietly for the Twins, who, until their recent flurry of moves, didn’t make much of a splash and instead found ways to add on the margins.

Additions on one of the margins certainly added up. And as Twins camp formally opened with their first workout for pitchers and catchers on Wednesday, the far corner of the Hammond Stadium clubhouse was full of new relievers getting settled in -- and there’s hope that this unusually fortified group could be a strong part of the Twins’ success this season.

“Just how all these guys fit together, we’re going to find out, but that’s our job during Spring Training,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “Work their way into roles, see how everyone fits and have a plan when we get to Opening Day that we think functions well. As far as weaponry, we have that, I think, and it’ll be a fun group.”

Among the newcomers to the bullpen are right-handers Justin Topa (trade with Seattle), Jay Jackson (free agent), Josh Staumont (free agent) and left-hander Steven Okert (trade with Miami) -- and that’s not to mention the hope of a full season from Brock Stewart.

Projections are kind to this group, anchored at the back end by the explosive stuff of Jhoan Duran, alongside Stewart, Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar. According to FanGraphs, the Twins project to have the best bullpen in the American League, and the group is tied with the Braves for second best in MLB behind only the Phillies. But the Twins are still being measured with their optimism, because it just takes one or two injuries to change things.

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“I do take the bullpen projections with somewhat of a grain of salt, because there's so much variance in it,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “You've got to stay healthy, you've got to have good things happen. I feel like we've given ourselves a group as a whole that we think can go pitch in some really good, meaningful situations.”

This is not how this Twins front office has typically approached its roster-building, given how high-variance bullpen outcomes tend to be from year to year. In years past, they’ve notably leaned more into veteran arms with lengthy track records like Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Joe Smith -- but none of these newcomers exactly fit that bill.

That’s not the profile of these new acquisitions. Staumont is a stuff-oriented former leverage arm from the Royals who found himself in Minnesota after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. He has since recovered and expects to be at 100 percent for Spring Training, with the underlying specifics of what led to his condition giving him confidence his numbers could rebound.

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Okert is a slider-first lefty who bolsters the Twins’ southpaw group and has a 3.51 ERA across the last three seasons with more strikeouts than innings pitched, while Topa and Jackson are both late bloomers who had meaningful success in the Seattle and Toronto bullpens, respectively, last season.

“The bullpen depth is obviously a big part of what this team's going to be made of,” catcher Ryan Jeffers said.

Effectively, the Twins lost Emilio Pagán from this group and added several arms who could offer more immediate upside as bridge options than others who threw meaningful bullpen innings last season like Jovani Moran (42 1/3 innings), Jorge López (35 1/3), Jordan Balazovic (24 1/3) and Dylan Floro (17).

“I would say it wasn't necessarily by design at the front end of the offseason,” Falvey said. “I would be lying if I said it was. It just kind of worked out that way.”

And when it comes to injury attrition, they’ve still got Kody Funderburk and Jorge Alcala perhaps waiting in the wings. Barring any departures via trade or injuries, there isn’t even clear room for the entire group they have now, if they want to break camp with a long reliever.

Considering the Twins didn’t find a one-for-one replacement for the lost production of Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and there’s some uncertainty in the bulk they can get from Chris Paddack (coming off Tommy John) and Anthony DeSclafani (extensive recent injury history), there’s a good chance they’ll ask this bullpen to carry its load.

Last season, the Twins’ bullpen ranked tied with Detroit for 20th in baseball in fWAR, per FanGraphs, though it did consolidate toward the end of the season. There’s hope for far more this year.

“Really, the bullpen is loaded,” Okert said. “It's going to be a fun year.”