Rogers (lat) pulled after 32 pitches, velo drop

WASHINGTON -- It’s been a disjointed, difficult sophomore season for Trevor Rogers, but the southpaw and the Marlins hoped he would ride a string of strong outings to finish it on a high note. Now, whether that happens is up in the air.

Rogers’ season may be over after the left-hander exited Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the Nationals after only 32 pitches due to left lat discomfort. Rogers described the issue as distinct from the back spasms that sidelined him for more than a month in July and August, and said he expects to undergo further imaging on Sunday to get a better grasp of the severity.

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After Saturday’s loss at Nationals Park, Miami manager Don Mattingly stopped short of saying Rogers wouldn’t pitch again this year. But everyone involved understands that it's a possibility given the calendar’s late date.

“I would assume with something like that -- where he comes out of the game -- he isn’t going to be making his next start,” manager Don Mattingly said. “We’ll see where it goes.”

Making his fourth start since returning from the injured list, Rogers allowed a leadoff homer to Lane Thomas before escaping the first inning otherwise unscathed. Sitting down in the dugout in between innings, Rogers said his left shoulder began to feel “heavy.” He noticed the fatigue again during his mid-inning plyoball routine. He then allowed consecutive doubles to begin the bottom of the second inning.

Rogers’ fastball velocity plummeted nearly 3 mph in that span -- from 94 mph to Luke Voit in the first, to 91.1 mph on Riley Adams’ second-inning double. The Marlins' bench took notice of those numbers and removed Rogers two batters into the frame.

“There was no power,” Rogers said. “I tried to let a few go and there just wasn’t a whole lot there. There was no pain. I tried to continue to pitch but the velo just kept dropping.”

Said Mattingly: “We didn’t see anything mechanically that he was doing, other than when you watch the numbers, you go, ‘OK, what’s up?’

The Marlins should have a more complete answer Sunday, after Rogers undergoes an MRI. But as of Saturday night, the chances of Rogers pitching again in 2022 appeared slim. Even if the issue is benign, with only 16 games remaining this flare up probably wipes out two of Rogers’ final three projected starts at the very least. And even if it's benign enough to sideline him for only one start, Rogers would likely need to make his next start on extra rest, which poses significant risk for a young pitcher coming off an injury scare.

Given how important Rogers is to their future, the Marlins might not see the value in such risk and simply shut him down with an eye toward 2023.

“It’s very frustrating,” Rogers said. “I got back to where I finally needed to be and be able to compete, do it at a high level and very consistently. After having setbacks with the back and getting those taken care of, now having another flare up, it’s very frustrating.”

When the Marlins look ahead to 2023, they see a dynamic rotation full of young, talented starters as a strength of their team, led by NL Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara. Rogers remains a big part of that, especially if he can reclaim his 2021 form. The 2017 first-round Draft pick was an All-Star and the runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in ‘21, when he pitched to a 2.64 ERA in 25 starts as a 23-year-old.

This year proved more challenging. Rogers struggled to find consistency from the start, losing four of his first five decisions and dragging a 5.85 ERA into August before landing on the IL. He’d been pitching better heading into Saturday’s start, posting a 2.95 ERA across his past three outings.

“We’ve definitely seen the finish on the ball, and things he’s working on mechanically that create the ball coming out of his hands better,” Mattingly said. “A better changeup, a better slider. We’re seeing all that.”

If his season ended Saturday, Rogers would finish 4-12 with a 5.47 ERA in 23 starts. Miami lost 18 of them, including eight straight since Rogers’ last victory on July 1.

“As much as anything for Trevor, we wanted to see him finish the year on a high note,” Mattingly said. “It looked like he was heading in that direction. We’ve talked about having six guys and wanting to build their innings. This probably stops that process for him.”