4 trade possibilities that deserve more attention

SAN DIEGO -- As evidenced by Stephen Strasburg’s (temporarily) record-breaking pitching pact with the Nationals, the free-agent market is really coming to a head here at the Winter Meetings. A dramatic uptick in free-agent action this winter has been fun to follow, and there are plenty more dollars to be doled out before teams head home later this week.

Trades, though, are pretty fun, too. And the baseball industry descended upon “America’s Finest City” with many people buzzing about the possibility that one of America’s finest ballplayers -- Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant -- might be moved.

It's not so simple, of course. Blockbusters of that ilk are rare for a reason. But if you can step outside the Lindor, Betts and Bryant discussions, you’ll see that there are other trade possibilities that should generate interest all their own.

Tired: “The Indians might trade Lindor!”
Inspired: “The Indians might trade Kluber or another starter!”

The Indians might, very possibly, trade Lindor between now and July 31, 2021, and there is absolutely a strong argument for the Indians dealing him now. I should know because I wrote it!

But the Tribe drives a hard bargain in trades, and there is a very limited market of teams with a shortstop need, the financial wherewithal to easily absorb Lindor’s arbitration value the next two years and Major League-ready talent to deal. A Frankie blockbuster is probably not happening.

What’s more likely is a Corey Kluber trade. The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner is a distressed asset after a 2019 season in which he made just seven starts, but given the free-agent cost of top-end starting pitching, he’s still a valuable asset. He’ll make $17.5 million in ‘19 and $18 million in ‘20 if his club option is exercised. The Dodgers, who are so often tied to the Lindor conversations, have shown an interest in Kluber, and the right-hander might be an even better fit for a front office that has abstained from the free-agent mega-contract, has a rotation need and could easily absorb Kluber’s cost.

The Indians have also gotten inquiries about their controllable young starters coming off eye-opening rookie campaigns -- Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac. It is unclear whether they would actually deal either pitcher in an effort to bring in talent that improves the long-term offensive outlook. But Cleveland is the rare team with actual starting depth to dangle here, and that’s awfully interesting at a time when free-agent pitchers are shattering records.

Tired: “The Red Sox might trade Betts!”
Inspired: “The Red Sox should trade literally anybody else to save money!”

I will be stunned -- stunned, I tell you! -- if Chaim Bloom’s first big act as the chief baseball officer in Boston is to deal the club’s best and most popular player. This is just not an ideal time in this industry to be trying to get a ton of impact talent back for a guy who is a year from free agency and will make somewhere in the neighborhood of $27 million in arbitration in 2020.

But the Red Sox remain motivated to get under the luxury tax threshold. Depending on where you get your information, they’d have to shed anywhere from $10 million to $21 million to get under the $208 million figure for 2020. If it leans more toward the former, then something as simple as the extremely obvious Jackie Bradley Jr. departure -- he’s projected by Cot’s Baseball Contracts to earn $11.5 million in 2020 -- basically take care of things. If it’s the latter, the Red Sox might have to think seriously about attaching Andrew Benintendi to David Price or Nathan Eovaldi or be willing to absorb a good chunk of those pitchers’ remaining salaries to get a deal done.

But this is why Boston brought in Bloom: to make the hard and necessary deals that improve the farm system and the financial bottom line. Unfortunately for those who would love to see the sexiest of swaps, that’s probably not going to involve a Betts deal right now.

Tired: “Betts would be an impact outfield trade acquisition!”
Inspired: “Marte would be an impact outfield trade acquisition!”

Far, far more likely in the outfield trade market is the Pirates dealing Starling Marte. GM Ben Cherington is not under the same public pressure to keep his star as Bloom is, and, unlike with the Red Sox, it’s unlikely the Bucs will piece together a 2020 contender. Their outlook? It’s what it is, as they say in “The Irishman,” and it demands that Cherington, who is proven to be skilled at building a farm system from his time running the Red Sox, maximize Marte’s value.

Marte will make $24 million over the next two years (both club options), and that’s not an onerous tally for a 31-year-old who has rebounded nicely from the stain of his 2017 PED suspension and turned in a 120 OPS+ while playing a premium position up the middle. The center-field market in free agency isn’t great (it’s fronted by Brett Gardner and Japan’s Shogo Akiyama), so the Pirates should be able to fetch decent offers from teams like the D-backs, Rangers, White Sox, Reds, Phillies or others who arguably need the help. Perhaps that’s a deal that will go down this week.

Tired: “The Cubs might trade Bryant!”
Inspired: “The Cubs might trade Contreras!”

The Cubs are so motivated to improve their present financial picture and long-term talent forecasts that it’s not crazy to think Bryant could actually be dealt. The market for fellow third basemen Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson is heated enough that a proper Bryant package could materialize when those guys come off the board, if not beforehand.

But like Betts, Bryant’s trade value is affected by his arbitration value. (We’re also still awaiting a decision on his grievance that could affect his free-agent timetable, though the industry expectation is that he will remain under club control through 2021.)

A Willson Contreras deal appears more likely. The Padres and Blue Jays are among the clubs that have shown an interest in the All-Star catcher, who is just entering his first round of arbitration and is under control for three more seasons. The Cubs could conceivably absorb the loss of offense that would come with losing Contreras because of what they figure to gain defensively if Victor Caratini inherits the position. And they can apply the cost savings in free agency while also adding talent to a system that has been raided by graduations and trades.

Maybe the Cubs just do something low-key like, for instance, moving the last year of Tyler Chatwood’s contract. But there has been genuine discussion about Contreras in a market that has already featured a lot of catcher movement.