The storylines to watch in final hours before Deadline

Monday saw a flurry of trades around the Majors, which isn’t unusual for July 31. But this year’s Trade Deadline is Aug. 1 – that’s today, in case you didn’t realize – so we could be in for an even busier day on the transaction front.

By 6 p.m. ET, we will have a much better idea of what the pennant races might look like. Here’s a look at eight storylines to follow – and you should be following all of them at MLB.com and on MLB Network, of course – on Deadline day.

• Trade Deadline buzz: Latest news and rumors

Will the Mets trade Justin Verlander?

After watching the Mets unload Max Scherzer – along with roughly $36 million – for a Top 50 prospect, will Verlander follow his fellow multi-time Cy Young Award winner out of Queens?

The Mets are considering all options, though Verlander’s no-trade clause gives him the final say over whether he goes or stays. The Dodgers and Astros are said to have serious interest in the 40-year-old, while the Braves and Orioles have also been connected to Verlander.

Baltimore would appear to be a long shot in this scenario, but given the Orioles’ deep, talented farm system, and the Mets’ apparent willingness to pay down Verlander’s salary to secure top young talent, it can’t be discounted. Verlander also grew up three hours south of Baltimore, in Virginia, so he’s familiar with the DMV region.

The consensus within the industry as of Monday was that Verlander will still be with the Mets after the Deadline has passed, but that’s far from certain.

Will any controllable pitchers be traded?

The only notable controllable starting pitcher to be traded prior to Monday was Scherzer, who opted into his $43.33 million deal for 2024 after being traded to Texas. Aaron Civale became the second when the Guardians dealt him to the Rays for first-base prospect Kyle Manzardo.

Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery and Noah Syndergaard have all been moved as they head toward free agency, while impending free agents Michael Lorenzen, Jack Flaherty, Rich Hill and Carlos Carrasco could be traded by Tuesday night. Eduardo Rodriguez can opt out of his contract at the end of the year, but we’ll get to him in a bit.

Which controllable starters might be in play? Logan Gilbert (Mariners), Mitch Keller (Pirates), Dylan Cease (White Sox) and Brady Singer (Royals) have all drawn significant interest, but their price tags are understandably high. Free-agent starting pitching can be quite costly, so the clubs with controllable rotation pieces will demand a major haul to part with any of these pitchers.

What will the Yankees do?

The Yankees are in a tricky spot. Carlos Rodón finally made his pinstripes debut last month, while Aaron Judge returned from a two-month IL stint on Friday. New York enters play Tuesday 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race, competing with the Astros, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels for the final two spots.

New York has a number of needs: third base, left field and catcher, not to mention a rotation that could benefit from the addition of another arm. The farm system has some talent, and while the Yankees seem unlikely to part with their top four prospects, there are others that could be used in deals.

The biggest question is whether general manager Brian Cashman believes this team is good enough to get to October and make some noise in the postseason. If he does, I would expect him to do what is necessary to address the holes. Dylan Carlson? Elias Díaz? Michael Lorenzen? There are players out there who can make the Yankees better, but it remains to be seen if Cashman will go get them.

Could the Yankees sell? That hasn’t happened since 2016, the only year during Cashman’s quarter century at the helm that he’s been a seller. If he decides to do so again, he could try to trade Gleyber Torres and/or Domingo Germán, who are under control through 2024, plus impending free agents Harrison Bader and Wandy Peralta.

The Yankees could also try dipping their toes in both sides of the pool, adding controllable players while trading away their expiring contracts.

Are the Rangers done shopping?

Texas has been busy this week, adding Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to strengthen both the rotation and bullpen, the latter of which had already added Aroldis Chapman in late June.

But the Rangers likely aren’t done, as sources say Texas is still looking for at least one more bullpen arm. Jonah Heim’s injury could have GM Chris Young looking for some insurance behind the plate, and there’s a chance the Rangers add another outfield bat.

With potential opt-outs in their future, will Eduardo Rodriguez and/or Marcus Stroman be moved?

Yes and no. At least that’s the guess here.

Rodriguez has been excellent this season, posting a 2.95 ERA in 15 starts. He missed all of June with a pulley rupture in his left index finger, and while he has been inconsistent in his four starts since his return, he remains one of the best starting pitching options on the market.

The left-hander can opt out of the final three years and $49 million of his contract at the end of the season, and as long as he stays healthy the rest of the way, it should be an easy decision for Rodriguez. But do the teams considering a trade look at him as a rental or as a potential gamble? Detroit’s asking price has been high, but Rodriguez seems like as much a lock to be moved as any player out there.

Stroman, on the other hand, is unlikely to be traded, especially after he got hit hard Monday night for the third straight start. The right-hander – who is a near-lock to opt out of the final year and $21 million of his contract after the season – has allowed 17 earned runs in just 10 innings over his past three outings, a 15.30 ERA that bloated his season number from 3.37 to 3.85.

But Stroman’s recent struggles aren’t the reason that a trade is improbable; the Cubs sit just 3 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, and after Chicago added third baseman Jeimer Candelario on Monday, it’s clear the Cubs are going for it.

Will the Cubs and Padres buy?

It was only one week ago that we all assumed Stroman and Cody Bellinger would be traded by the Cubs before the Deadline, and given where the Padres stood at the time, Blake Snell and Josh Hader were also targeted as two of the top rentals that would become available.

But San Diego and Chicago have been two of the league’s hottest teams since then, thrusting themselves back into the NL postseason picture. The Padres’ weekend sweep of the Rangers all but solidified that GM A.J. Preller wouldn’t sell, but will he add to his roster in an attempt to earn a postseason spot during the final two months?

The Cubs traded for Candelario on Monday, adding the bat they had been seeking. Chicago later traded for Royals righty Jose Cuas, but they will likely continue looking for bullpen help – a lefty, in particular – and should be able to get something done prior to 6 p.m. ET.

Will the Reds and Orioles go for it?

Of the three surprising contenders, only the D-backs have made a major move, trading for Mariners closer Paul Sewald on Monday.

The Orioles are trying to hold off the Rays in the AL East, while the Reds are battling the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. Both clubs are in the market for rotation and bullpen help and have deep farm systems from which to deal, but how much will they be willing to pay for rentals?

If any two teams are in position to overwhelm a team for controllable pitching, it’s Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Will there be any surprises?

Well, if we knew the answer to that, it wouldn’t be a surprise, now would it?

It’s rare for a star player to be traded out of the blue, but it’s happened before. Zack Greinke’s last-minute trade to the Astros in 2019 shocked the baseball world. Ichiro Suzuki’s move to the Yankees in 2012 was also a stunner given what the star meant to the Mariners and their fan base. Even last year’s Juan Soto deal came as something of a shock after the Nationals had said they weren’t going to trade him.

The biggest surprises on Deadline day typically come in the form of players who are not traded. Two years ago, it felt like a foregone conclusion that Trevor Story would be moved, yet he was still a member of the Rockies that night. Same with Willson Contreras last summer.

Seeing pitchers such as Gilbert, Cease or Keller get traded would be somewhat surprising, but since we’ve already discussed them, it wouldn’t be that shocking.