Here are the 12 biggest surprises of the season

The biggest surprises of the 2024 MLB season might still be in front of us, as demonstrated last year when the Rangers and D-backs were both unexpected World Series entrants.

But these dog days of August are as good a time as any to take stock of what we’ve seen so far. And as usual, we’ve seen quite a few surprises this year.

Let’s run through 12 of them here -- if you were expecting a top 10… surprise! And note that we’re focused on season-long trends and storylines, as opposed to surprising one-off moments or games.

1. There is actually an NL West race!

The D-backs won the NL pennant last year … but they also finished 16 games behind the Dodgers in the division. When owner Ken Kendrick asked members of his front office if there were any moves that could be made that would make Arizona the projected statistical favorite in the West, they responded honestly that there were not. The computer models just favored the Dodgers’ depth that much.

But Arizona was obviously aggressive in the offseason, anyway. As were the Padres, who dealt away Juan Soto, only to add Dylan Cease to an improved pitching staff just before Opening Day. Both clubs knew the computers can be wrong, and both clubs are proving it of late.

For the D-backs to be where they are despite prolonged struggles earlier in the season from Corbin Carroll is a surprise all its own, and the Padres have gotten a surprising career year from Jurickson Profar and a better than expected output from Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Merrill.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have not been the historically great team one would expect after their $1 billion offseason. They’re still on top in the West, but the D-backs and Padres entered Thursday a mere 2 1/2 games back, and both clubs still have one more series against L.A. down the stretch.

2. The Brewers and Guardians are in first place.

Though they were both recent division winners -- the Guards in 2022, the Brewers last season -- neither club’s fan base was overflowing with optimism going into this season. Both had lost a standout skipper, with Craig Counsell departing his native Milwaukee for the rival Cubs and Terry Francona retiring. And neither had an inspiring offseason. The Brewers traded away one of the best pitchers in baseball in Corbin Burnes, and the Guardians might as well have dealt their ace Shane Bieber, because he wound up pitching only 12 innings for them before his elbow blew out.

Both clubs were reliant on youth -- overly so, it seemed.

But pleasant surprises abound for these leaders on the Great Lakes. For Pat Murphy’s Brewers, losing Christian Yelich to back issues has obviously been a setback, but Burnes trade acquisition Joey Ortiz broke out, and Colin Rea and rookie Tobias Myers have helped ease the burden of losing Burnes from the rotation.

Stephen Vogt and the Guardians were unexpectedly boosted by Ben Lively in their rotation, an out-of-nowhere All-Star bid from first-half hero David Fry and an unexpected power surge from Steven Kwan, among other developments.

The key for both teams is they catch the ball and have way-better-than-advertised bullpens (Cleveland’s Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis rank first and second among all rookies in relief appearances.) That goes a long way.

3. Chris Sale is elite again.

It’s not a knock on Sale to suggest it seemed his best innings were behind him entering 2024. It’s just an unfortunate fact that we hadn’t seen enough of Sale in recent years to be all that encouraged. For a variety of reasons both in and out of his control, he managed just 31 starts from 2020-23, and his 4.30 ERA and 106 ERA+ in 102 2/3 innings for the Red Sox last year made him appear to be settling into a latter stage of his career in which he’d be serviceable but perhaps not the star he once was.

Well, the Braves knew better than most of us, because the Sale swap that sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston has proven to be one of the biggest steals of the offseason. Sale has not only stayed healthy; he has been electric. He has an NL-best 2.61 ERA and one of the best strikeout rates (33.3%) of a career that, thanks to this resurgence, could be trending back toward Hall of Fame-worthy. It’s one of the best stories of the season … and a surprising one, at that.

4. The Phillies own the East.

We knew the Phillies were one of the better teams in MLB. But a lot of us were lulled into the established narrative that they were more of an October giant than a regular-season one, and that the Braves’ stranglehold on the division would not abate. To wit, FanGraphs’ preseason odds gave Atlanta an 88.8% chance of winning the division!

So, yes, to see the Phillies establish a commanding lead in the division by the end of May was surprising. And though they’ve hit quite the rough patch in the second half, they have not relinquished hold of the top spot. The Phillies had eight (!) All-Stars, and Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Alec Bohm and Matt Strahm were surprising entrants among them.

5. The Royals have rebounded resoundingly.

After tying a franchise record for fewest wins in a full season with 56 last year, the Royals went to work in the winter. They committed more than $100 million to free agents Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola. Most analysts patted them on the head for a good effort, but few took them seriously as an actual contender.

But the Royals are indeed contending. Behind their sensational superstar Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MVP-level output, after signing a long-term extension with the club. Behind Lugo -- a surprise All-Star and Cy Young candidate -- Wacha, 2023 trade acquisition Cole Ragans and Brady Singer turning into a fantastic front four in the rotation. Behind Salvador Perez’s awesome age-34 season -- and a host of other positives.

As of this writing, the Royals are on pace for 88 wins, which would be the most ever after a 100-loss season (the 1967 Cubs and 1989 Orioles won 87). They still have a chance at the biggest year-to-year win total leap, a record currently held by the 1903 New York Giants (plus-36). Oh, and they’re in playoff contention, potentially becoming the second team ever to reach October a year after losing 100-plus, joining the 2017 Twins.

6. Shota Imanaga has been more valuable than Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The international free agent market was lively last winter, and Yamamoto, despite never having thrown a pitch in MLB, came out of it with a staggering 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers that broke Gerrit Cole’s free-agent record.

Imanaga’s four-year, $53 million deal with the Cubs was tame by comparison. But even that number surprised some evaluators who saw the 30-year-old Imanaga as more of a back-end piece lacking the 25-year-old Yamamoto’s upside.

It’s only one season, but while Yamamoto has been very good for the Dodgers, he’s been limited to 14 starts by a shoulder injury. Imanaga, meanwhile, has a 9-2 record, 3.16 ERA and 133 ERA+ in 128 1/3 innings, thriving overall even after one of his rougher starts of the season Monday.

7. Paul Skenes is even better than imagined.

We knew that if any young pitcher could hit the ground running, it would be Skenes, whose electric arsenal and poise had made him look like a man among boys during LSU’s run to the College World Series in 2023. It was not hard to imagine that given enough starts, he could vie for the NL Rookie of the Year honor.

But All-Star starter and borderline Cy Young candidate? With a 2.25 ERA and 183 ERA+ through 15 starts, Skenes has somehow managed to exceed the enormous expectations placed upon him. It’s not as easy as he’s made it look.

And as an added bonus, he has introduced us to the word “splinker.”

8. The Braves and Rangers have run-of-the-mill run production.

These lineups led their leagues in runs last season, but Texas entered this week ranked eighth in the AL and Atlanta was 11^th in the NL.

Last year’s Braves had a team weighted runs created plus (125) identical to that of the 1927 Yankees. They were the first team ever to slug .500 (actually, .501) as a unit. They had seven players with north of 20 homers, led by Matt Olson’s 54.

This year’s Braves have obviously been beset by injuries, most prominently to reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. But it’s still been staggering to see Olson putting up essentially league-average output and the lineup, at large, take such a steep step back, even with Marcell Ozuna raking.

The Rangers weren’t quite as prolific as the Braves last year, but they seemingly had more upside, with rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter added to a club that scored 881 runs last year. Alas, those two didn’t pop as planned, Adolis Garcia has had his worst season since becoming a regular and Marcus Semien has not been as dynamic.

9. The top three starters available at the Trade Deadline were Garret Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Erick Fedde.

None of these guys looked like hot commodities at the start of the season.

Crochet had never thrown more than 54 1/3 innings and was getting his first crack at the rotation, where he’s turned into a force of nature with 167 strikeouts in 120 1/3 innings. He wound up staying put at the Deadline, but the White Sox moved Fedde to the Cardinals and the Tigers sent Flaherty to the Dodgers, after both were signed to successful short-term deals in which they re-established their value.

10. The Red Sox are relevant.

Whether they have what it takes down the stretch to actually claim an October spot remains to be seen. But after a tepid offseason that included the regrettable Sale swap referenced earlier, plus a season-ending spring injury to their most meaningful pitching acquisition in Lucas Giolito, Boston was projected by FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus to finish last in the loaded AL East.

Instead, the Red Sox have leapfrogged the disappointing Rays and Blue Jays and are vying for a Wild Card spot, in part because of All-Star surges from center fielder Jarren Duran and starter Tanner Houck and terrific rookie contributions from Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela.

11. Elly De La Cruz has an eye on 80 steals.

Maybe this shouldn’t be labeled a surprise. We are talking about the self-proclaimed “Fastest Man in the World,” after all.

But for De La Cruz to be ahead of Acuña’s stolen base pace from 2023, when Acuña finished with 73, is incredible stuff. De La Cruz entered Thursday with 59 steals -- far ahead of his closest competitor, the Brewers’ Brice Turang's with 35. The 22-year-old De La Cruz has made a remarkable rise in his on-base percentage (plus-46 points) and slugging percentage (plus-83 points) in his sophomore season. He already has 21 homers, seven shy of the record for a player in an 80-steal season.

If De La Cruz reaches 80, he’ll be the first to do so since Rickey Henderson swiped 93 in 1988!

12. Intra-season surprises!

Not all team surprises are relative to what we expected on Opening Day. Some are relative to what we thought on Memorial Day … or later.

Just a couple months back, the Astros’ run of excellence looked to have run its course. Ravaged in the rotation, Houston was as many as 12 games under .500 at one point, and as of June 18, was 10 games back of the first-place Mariners. But they went on a very Astros-ian run to erase that deficit in a matter of a month. Houston entered Thursday a season-high 10 games over .500 and 2 1/2 games ahead of Seattle in what looks to be a dramatic duel down the stretch.

The Mets and Cardinals also rose from the dead. The Mets were 11 games under .500 as recently as June 2, only to make people say (and sing) “OMG” with a rise back into Wild Card contention. The Cardinals were a sub-.500 squad last season and nine games under on May 11, so it was no given that they’d get back in the Wild Card race -- though lately they’ve again had trouble keeping up, so we’ll see how that ends up.

That’s enough for now, but check in again in another seven weeks. Because the only thing surprising would be if there aren’t more surprises.