Could this be the Cardinals' best defensive alignment?

WASHINGTON -- Before the Cardinals rallied for an 8-6 victory over the Nationals on Monday at Nationals Park, they made three above-average defensive plays that kept the game from spiraling away.

In the first inning, Lars Nootbaar uncorked a one-hop assist from right field to throw out Corey Dickerson at third to end Washington’s three-run frame. The next inning, Brendan Donovan’s assist from left got Luis García at second. A batter later, Tommy Edman laid out to take a hit away from Jeimer Candelario in shallow center, ending what could have turned into a nightmare first two innings for starter Jack Flaherty had those plays not been made.

Though the Cardinals were down by five at that point, the plays loomed large once Flaherty settled in and St. Louis stormed back, using back-to-back homers from Donovan and Paul Goldschmidt in the fifth inning to score eight runs and collect its third straight win. They were healthy signs for a team that’s struggled in part because it ranks among the Majors’ worst defensive units (-8 Outs Above Average per Statcast, 23rd in MLB entering Monday), especially in the outfield (-7 OOA, tied for 27th).

“If you look at our overall play, the outfield needed to be tightened up,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “The better we play out there with the guys we have, we’re going to give ourselves a shot."

The Cardinals consider rectifying that issue a key to turning their season around, and Nootbaar’s return from the injured list Monday gives them seven outfielders (or at least players capable of playing outfield) on the active roster. That includes Edman, who moved from short to center recently with Nootbaar sidelined.

All of this has Marmol crunching scenarios lately trying to answer the question: What is the Cardinals’ best defensive alignment?

Let’s try to break it down using Statcast. What do the numbers say?

1. Who is the best defensive center fielder?
It’s close. Among Cardinals with at least 10 fielding opportunities in center, Edman and Dylan Carlson both lead with 2 OAA entering Monday. If you’re looking for tiebreakers, Carlson rated as a plus defender there (+4 OAA) last season. However, Edman holds a slight lead this year in success rate added, which measures defensive outcomes against expected outcomes based on difficulty.

Verdict: Take your pick: Carlson or Edman. In a vacuum, the Cards can’t go wrong with either.

2. Who are the best defenders at the corners?
Among Cardinals with at least 10 fielding opportunities in left, Donovan (0 OAA) rates as the best defender, particularly with Tyler O’Neill out through at least mid-August with a lower back strain. In right field, Carlson, Donovan and Nootbaar all rate equally in OOA. Nootbaar gets the slight edge via success rate added, and Carlson has the stronger arm, but only barely. Jordan Walker’s arm rates better than any Cards outfielder, but he’s also the group’s weakest overall defender.

Verdict: The best alignment looks like Donovan in left and either Carlson or Nootbaar in right.

3. Who is the best defensive shortstop?
Edman rated as the Majors’ fourth-best defensive shortstop in 2022 (11 OOA), but he rates only average (0 OAA) at the position so far this season. Meanwhile, Paul DeJong is on pace to have the best defensive year of his career at the position; at 4 OOA through 47 games, he’s amassed nearly the same defensive value (5 OAA) he did in 75 games at shortstop in ‘22.

Verdict: Right now, clearly DeJong.

4. Where is Edman the better defender?
Right now, the numbers say center field is Edman’s best position. He’s also arguably the Cardinals’ best defender in center (see above).

5. Knowing this, where is Edman’s defense more valuable?
This is partially about Edman, partially about opportunity cost. Starting Edman in center allows the Cardinals to get DeJong’s plus defensive value at short. With Nootbaar back, the cost is probably Carlson, who is more or less equal defensively to Edman in center.

The alternative? Edman at short, Carlson in center and DeJong’s plus defensive value on the bench. But if Edman is a worse defender at short this season and equal to Carlson in center, this is suboptimal for the Cardinals. It’s essentially leaving outs on the field.

Verdict: Probably center field.

6. So, who gets squeezed?
The likely candidate is Carlson, even though you could make the argument that he’s either the team’s top defender or close to it at both center and right.

Now, Marmol considers more than defensive metrics when writing out his daily lineup card. Indeed, some of these decisions will be driven by offense, matchups, rest and other factors.

For instance, the Cardinals don’t want to turn Walker into an everyday DH so early in his career, so he’ll need regular outfield reps. Donovan and Edman can also play second, opening up different permutations, and St. Louis has outfielder Alec Burleson in the mix as well.

But if the Cardinals are strictly looking at putting their best defense out there, it looks like that is DeJong at short, Edman in center, Donovan in left and Nootbaar in right -- at least right now.