Tigers work under the wire in 'rigid' Deadline

The Tigers put in a summer of work to be ready for the Trade Deadline. It all came down to one hour.

The way the Tigers’ dealings have played out, this was always going to be the end. The emergence of analytics has allowed organizations to put precise values on trade pieces. Like other general managers, Al Avila has had a hard time coaxing buyers off those.

“It is very difficult,” Avila said, “because clubs now have a model for what they would and would not do. I would say for the most part it's pretty rigid depending on years of service, dependent on performance history and dependent on a lot of factors. And it all goes into the decision-making process.

“There's a range, there’s a value they attach to a player and they stick with it. They don't bend.”

Sellers would hold out for top prospects. Buyers would stick to lesser offers. Negotiations became a slog. The only hope to break the logjam was time.

“There's only one trading Deadline now,” Avila said, “but it still took going to the wire and trying to make these acquisitions because clubs were very stingy in giving up prospects. And that has really been the trend for several years now.”

Once the Tigers neared Wednesday’s Deadline, Avila wanted to be ready to make quick decisions. This is why Detroit not only invested in analytics, but also expanded its pro scouting department. Many Tigers scouts were on the road for much of the past six weeks; one said he’d been home for four days since June 24. The Tigers, led by vice president of player personnel Scott Bream and baseball operations director Sam Menzin, wanted multiple looks at potential acquisitions, not just one glimpse on a good or bad day.

When the Tigers delved into talks for closer Shane Greene, they aimed high. Little changed until the final hours before the Deadline. When the Nationals pivoted to smaller deals, the Tigers came back to the Braves, who had emerged as a strong contender. The Dodgers lurked as a possibility, with Greene as a potential fallback option.

The challenge the Tigers faced is that Atlanta’s system is heavy on pitching and light on impact hitters close to the Majors. Detroit had no hope of landing top prospects Christian Pache or Drew Waters, both outfielders. Though slugging catcher Alex Jackson was discussed, the Tigers instead tapped into the Braves’ pitching depth and went for Joey Wentz.

Wentz is the prospect on whom the trade will ultimately be judged on the Tigers’ end. While he isn’t a Top 50 prospect like right-hander Ian Anderson or Waters, his 2017 and '18 seasons launched him into the Braves’ top 10. His '19 numbers, including a 5-8 record and a 4.72 ERA at Double-A Mississippi, tempered that rise.

Wentz doesn’t rival Casey Mize or Matt Manning so much as he complements them. The general opinion from evaluators is that he could be a No. 4 or 5 starter. The 21-year-old is just three months older than Manning.

MLB Pipeline ranked him 14th among prospects traded near the Deadline. Of the 13 ranked ahead of him, only infielder Mauricio Dubon went in one of the reliever deals, traded from the Brewers to the Giants for Drew Pomeranz.

In Travis Demeritte, the Tigers hope to translate his 2019 resurgence into Major League upside for a former first-round Draft pick turned unranked prospect. Demeritte’s .944 OPS in 2019 is 141 points higher than his career mark. He has more strikeouts (106) than hits (97), but the two are closer than ever for him.

One evaluator compared Demeritte to a righty-hitting version of Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin, also a former first-round pick.

The Castellanos trade was a matter of taking what the Tigers could get, finally, after two years on the market. As recently as a half-hour before the Deadline, a deal was seen as a long shot, which would’ve left Castellanos finishing the season in Detroit, hitting free agency and likely leaving for nothing.

“Our sights were on trying to see if there was any type of return we could get for Nick,” Avila said. “I think we felt fortunate to get two pitchers that we feel are prospects, that we feel have upside to get to the big leagues and contribute. If we didn't get that, we would have probably just kept Nick for two months.”

Paul Richan and Alex Lange rank 19th and 29th on MLB Pipeline’s updated Tigers rankings. Lange is more of a project, being converted to a relief role at Double-A Erie. Richan currently looks like starting depth.

So where do Wednesday’s moves leave the Tigers rebuild?

They fortified the Tigers' system, but didn’t complete it. Even if Demeritte finds a place in Detroit’s lineup, the Tigers’ search for impact hitters continues. They could revisit the Matthew Boyd market in the winter, but Avila said Wednesday no team came close to enticing them this summer.

“I think that the amount of attention that it was getting in the media was overplayed or overstated,” Avila said. “It's not that I took him off [the market] or anything like that. There was nothing really close, to tell you the truth.”

Their other possibility was evidenced by a less-publicized Deadline deal. When the Marlins traded rookie right-hander Zac Gallen to the D-backs for their top prospect, shortstop Jazz Chisholm, they showed the kind of youth swap the Tigers could use their pitching depth to pursue.

“We've kicked some of those ideas around already,” Avila said. “That is a very viable option and a possibility. If you've noticed, there's a lot of need for pitching out there. Every team needs starters. You can see how it goes. …

“Having a good young stable of pitchers in your system is a good place to be. You can keep the guys you want for your rotation and bullpen and make your team better.”