Tigers-Guardians position-by-position breakdown

Get ready for a familiar matchup in an unfamiliar setting.

Cleveland and Detroit, two charter AL franchises, have faced each other 2,326 times in the regular season through the years and have been division cohabitants (first in the AL East, then in the AL Central) through nearly all of MLB’s divisional era (with the exception of 1994-97). They are each other’s most frequent opponent. But they’ve never faced each other in the postseason … until this most unexpected of AL Division Series duels.

Neither of these clubs was a popular pick to reach the postseason this year, but the Guardians (92-69) wound up running away with their second Central title in the past three seasons, and the Tigers (86-76) went from a Trade Deadline sell-off to a late-season surge in which their postseason odds lifted from 0.2% (per FanGraphs) to 100% in the span of just seven weeks.

So good luck guessing what will happen when the two clubs meet for a best-of-five series that begins Saturday afternoon at Progressive Field. But let’s try to formulate an opinion by taking a look at these clubs, position by position, to see where their relative strengths and weaknesses lie.

Catcher
The 24-year-old Guardians catcher Bo Naylor took a big step forward defensively in his first full season and rated seventh among catchers in Fielding Run Value, but his bat, which produced a .201/.264/.350 slash line, was a disappointment.

Still, Naylor's bat fared slightly better than that of Tigers catcher Jake Rogers, who was top five in Fielding Run Value, but slashed only .197/.255/.352.

Advantage: Guardians

First base
Bo’s older brother, Josh Naylor, was a first-time All-Star in 2024 with a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBIs, though much of his run production was weighted toward the first half (.816 OPS vs. .717 in the second) and at home (.852 OPS vs. .699 on the road). Still, while he can run hot and cold, he’s capable of changing an inning, game and series with a single swing.

The Tigers’ Spencer Torkelson can do the same (31 homers in 2023), but his struggles this season were so pronounced that he spent most of the summer with Triple-A Toledo. Tork’s .782 OPS since his return is encouraging, but Naylor gets the nod.

Advantage: Guardians

Second base
Andrés Giménez took a step back offensively this season, with an OPS+ that was 18% worse than league average. But he’s a safe bet for his third straight Gold Glove, and this was his second straight season with 30 steals.

While Tigers rookie Colt Keith was mildly better at the plate (4% worse than league average) and had some hot stretches, he’s still adjusting to the big leagues. Ultimately, Giménez is the one with a standout skill set here for now.

Advantage: Guardians

Shortstop
Neither of these clubs has a star at short. The Tigers tried to sign one in Javier Báez, but the contract has been a disaster, and Báez had season-ending right hip surgery in August. Detroit replaced him with midseason trade acquisition Trey Sweeney (acquired from the Dodgers for Jack Flaherty), and Sweeney’s merely competent performance (81 OPS+) has been an upgrade.

From the Guardians’ hodgepodge of young middle-infield prospects, the 23-year-old Brayan Rocchio emerged as the primary starter at short this season. He’s a good defender, but just hasn’t provided much offensively (.206/.298/.316 slash). Choose your own adventure here, but we’ll take Sweeney, if only because he had nine extra-base hits in only 36 games to Rocchio’s 27 in 143.

Advantage: Tigers

Third base
If there is such a thing as an underrated superstar, then José Ramírez is it. He likely doesn’t get stopped on the street much outside of Cleveland, but he’ll undoubtedly be in the top 10 of the AL MVP voting for the seventh time in eight years after falling just one homer and one double shy (the Guards’ last game was rained out) of the second 40-homer, 40-steal, 40-double season in MLB history. The only question is whether Ramírez will rise to the occasion in the postseason, where he has a disappointing .638 OPS in 32 previous games.

Detroit has Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry, Jace Jung and Andy Ibáñez as options here. Ibáñez had the huge three-run double in the Wild Card Series clincher, but, well, you know who we’re going with here.

Advantage: Guardians

Left field
An All-Star matchup here. The Guardians’ Steven Kwan recently returned from a late-season back issue that may have contributed to a prolonged second-half slump (.206/.316/.302 slash after the break). Still, when you look up at year’s end, this was a breakthrough season for Kwan, who remains an asset in left field and paired an excellent .292 average with a homer total (14) that was more than his 2022 and ’23 marks combined (11).

But the Tigers’ Riley Greene had a breakthrough of his own -- with an .827 OPS, 133 OPS+, 24 homers and 27 doubles -- and he didn’t have the health/performance issues that Kwan did in the second half.

Advantage: Tigers

Center field
A midseason trade with the Nationals for Lane Thomas, who brings the contact and speed Cleveland values, addressed the Guardians’ weakness in center field. Though Thomas got off to a miserable offensive start with his new squad, he had seven homers and an .855 OPS in September to finish the season with essentially a league average OPS+, which, for the Guards, qualifies as an upgrade at the position.

But the Tigers got an even bigger upgrade when Parker Meadows returned from the injured list in early August and slashed .291/.333/.500 down the stretch while making one incredible play after another. Meadows’ magic continued in the Wild Card Series in which he hit a solo shot in Wednesday’s clincher.

Advantage: Tigers

Right field
Not a strength for either club, frankly. Cleveland’s primary options here are Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel, aka “Big Christmas,” assuming Noel makes the ALDS roster after a September slump. Noel can run into some huge homers, but is super streaky, while Brennan slashed .264/.309/.388 in 353 plate appearances this season.

Detroit has several options here in Kerry Carpenter (.895 OPS as a right fielder), Matt Vierling (.912 OPS as a right fielder) and Wenceel Pérez (.714 OPS as a right fielder). Though Carpenter has spent ample time at DH since returning from a back injury, ultimately the Tigers have gotten more production from this position than the Guardians have.

Advantage: Tigers

Designated hitter
David Fry was an unlikely All-Star for the Guardians at DH, but, more and more, the club has reserved Fry for pinch-hitting duties and given the starts to rookie Kyle Manzardo, who was a September callup to begin his second stint in the bigs this season, and produced a strong .270/.333/.540 slash with five homers and two doubles in 23 games down the stretch.

The Tigers’ Carpenter, meanwhile, has taken kindly to DH duties, slashing .298/.358/.620 with nine homers (including a grand slam in the season finale), six doubles and three triples in 35 regular season games in the role. He’ll likely sit against the lefty (and former Tiger) Matthew Boyd, but his 135 OPS+ through his first 236 games in the bigs is the best track record of anybody here.

Advantage: Tigers

Rotation
This is tricky. The Guardians don’t have much of a rotation, and the Tigers don’t really have a rotation. So basically, it all comes down to how much weight we should put on Tarik Skubal.

First, the Guards. Long an organizational strength, the rotation has turned into an area of uncertainty this season, especially after staff ace Shane Bieber hit the shelf with a right elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in early April. That has left 25-year-old Tanner Bibee as Cleveland's de facto ace and Game 1 starter. Bibee is still experiencing the ups and downs that come with a sophomore season, but his command and his breaking pitches are real assets that limit hard contact and walks.

From there, the Guardians’ options are known but the order is a mystery. Veteran Boyd joined the club as a free agent midseason while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he earned a playoff opportunity by pitching to a 2.72 ERA with a 3.54 K/BB ratio in eight starts down the stretch.

Another veteran, Alex Cobb, was also acquired midseason, but made just three (encouraging) starts after returning from left hip surgery, only to deal with nail and blister issues on his throwing hand that kept him on the shelf most of September. The 32-year-old Ben Lively helped rescue the rotation this year (107 ERA+), but wasn’t as effective in the second half.

Gavin Williams, 25, has electric stuff, but has been erratic (4.86 ERA). And the 24-year-old Joey Cantillo (Cleveland's No. 15 prospect) has had some nice moments, but has only made nine appearances (eight starts) in the bigs. Only six MLB clubs had a starters’ ERA worse than the Guardians’ 4.40 mark this year.

As for the Tigers, there’s Skubal, the AL pitching Triple Crown winner and expected Cy Young winner, and he only burnished his growing legend by holding a difficult Astros lineup scoreless for six innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.

The Tigers famously don’t have much beyond him (Keider Montero wasn’t on the Wild Card Series roster, but he did make a dozen starts in the second half). They’ll have a more difficult time bullpenning their way through a best-of-five series than they did a best-of-three.

But again, if we’re rating the best “rotation,” then it’s hard to side with one guy -- even a guy as special as Skubal.

Advantage: Guardians

Bullpen
The Guardians have more than offset their wobbly rotation with the most dominant bullpen in baseball. It is anchored by the incredible Emmanuel Clase, who will receive Cy Young votes this year for racking up an AL-high 47 saves while posting an impeccable 0.61 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP. The only other reliever in history (minimum 30 appearances) with an ERA and WHIP below 0.70 was Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley in 1990.

While Clase has been a mainstay, the terrific young trio of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and lefty Tim Herrin have set him up with sub-2.00 ERAs in at least 74 appearances apiece. The Guardians’ 2.57 relief ERA was the fourth best of the Wild Card era, with more than 150 more innings than any of the three clubs that posted better marks. So manager Stephen Vogt is not shy about turning to his team strength, and October’s off-days will allow him to continue to be aggressive.

Detroit’s bullpen has also been a major strength this season (fifth-best relief ERA in MLB). A.J. Hinch’s expert managerial touch is a huge reason why the Tigers got here unexpectedly. Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske, Will Vest and Co. are quickly becoming household names, recently promoted prospect Jackson Jobe could shine in this series, and the Tigers just bullpened their way through a Game 2 clincher against the Astros, which is a lot easier said than done. Still, on paper, the Guards can’t be matched at this spot by this or any team.

Advantage: Guardians

Prediction
The Guardians had the 7-6 edge in the season series, which means … absolutely nothing. As the Tigers just showed in the Wild Card Series, October is its own animal … all the more so when you can mix and match as well as they do, are playing with house money and have built belief in recent weeks. That’s why I personally picked the Tigers to take down the Astros, as crazy as that might have sounded to most.

But as noted above, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to keep this up in a longer series. While the Division Series is another round that has been prone to upsets and a double shot of Skubal is a major, major weapon for the Tigers, the rested Guardians would appear to be in better position to get at least a little length from their starters instead of putting all of the pressure on the 'pen. That’s why I think they will prevail before the series can come back to Skubal a second time.

Guardians in four.