Guardians' 3 keys to beating familiar foe

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell’s Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CLEVELAND -- We all know the numbers by now.

The Guardians and Tigers have played more than 2,300 games against each other all-time. None of those have been a playoff game. We have no postseason history between the division rivals to draw back on. The best we can do to analyze this matchup is flash back to the 13 games they played against each other earlier this season.

The problem, though? The Tigers didn’t become the Tigers until after the season series was over.

The last time these two teams met was Trade Deadline day. The Tigers had just traded top-tier starter Jack Flaherty and the Guardians’ 5-0 win that afternoon caused Detroit to drop five games under .500.

When looking at the big picture, the Tigers didn’t seem like a playoff team at that point. However, the Guardians knew there was more to the story. In those 13 games, seven of them were decided by one run. Two of them went to extra innings.

It wasn’t until August that the Tigers showed the rest of the baseball world that they could be a playoff contender. And for anyone who doubted the legitimacy, Detroit went to Houston and swept the Astros in the Wild Card Series, preventing them from advancing to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“They showed us all year long that they were gonna do something like this,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “The way that they’ve been able to go on this run and get hot and play really good baseball down the stretch is a testament to all their players and their coaching staff and A.J. Hinch. They do a great job. They never go away and they’re going to make you get all 27 outs and put pressure on you.”

So, how do the Guardians make sure their ending isn’t the same as Houston’s? Let’s look at three big keys:

Avoid facing Skubal twice
It doesn’t matter if the Guardians got 10 hits off Tarik Skubal in a game earlier in the year, Cleveland does not want to have to face the AL Cy Young favorite two times in this five-game series.

The Tigers haven’t announced their Game 1 starter just yet, but given that Game 1 would mean he’d be on short rest, let’s assume Skubal will get the ball in Game 2, setting him up to also start Game 5, should the series get there.

This is a guy who led the Majors in strikeouts (228 in 192 innings) and led the American League in ERA (2.39) and wins (18) to take home the AL pitching Triple Crown. In his first playoff start, Skubal mowed down the Astros in six scoreless innings, giving up just four hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Of Cleveland’s 10 hits against him earlier this year, it was only able to get one run across the plate. And if the bats go cold, Skubal could cruise deep into the game.

So to face that in an elimination game if the series goes the distance? No team would want that. If the Guardians are moving on to the ALCS, winning in four games or less will be key.

Put the one-run games in the rearview mirror
We said it before, but we’ll say it again: Of the 13 contests between these two clubs this season, seven of them were decided by one run. Vogt’s already joked about how rapidly he’s aged during his first managerial season. One-run games in the playoffs will multiply that.

What worked in Cleveland’s favor during the regular season was that the Tigers’ bullpen hadn’t yet found its groove. A lot of those one-run victories came in the later innings. But since July 25 (the day after Flaherty’s last start with the club), Detroit relievers have pitched to a collective 2.87 ERA.

The pitching is set to be more difficult to face than a few months ago. The Detroit offense has been on a roll that’s led to the Tigers winning 33 of their last 46 games. This won’t be the same team the Guardians squeaked out wins against. Cleveland’s offense has to prove to be more dominant.

Out-matchup the matchup team
The Tigers aren’t afraid to be aggressive with their bullpen or with their bench ... just like the Guardians. Cleveland will have to find the right times to turn to its bench to counteract the relievers that are brought into the games in certain situations. The Guardians will also have to find the right hurlers to deploy based on who the Tigers will be sending to the plate.

“It’s going to be two very similar teams going at it,” Vogt said. “I think the Tigers are very, very deep and they’ve got a lot of talent.”