7 teams that should go get Greinke

At 35 years old and more than halfway into the six-year contract he signed with the D-backs prior to the 2016 season, Zack Greinke remains a force. And as the July 31 Trade Deadline approaches, he should be drawing a lot of interest, if he is available.

Yes, Greinke’s fastball velocity continues to decline. Since his last season with the Dodgers in 2015, his four-seamer and two-seamer have dropped from a combined average of over 92 mph to under 90 -- easily in the bottom 10% of MLB starters.

For a savvy veteran such as Greinke, it’s an obstacle, but hardly an overwhelming one. The righty keeps hitters off-balance with a five-pitch mix (six if you count the super-slow “eephus” curveballs he occasionally drops). He works the edges of the zone, changes speeds, and avoids solid contact.

Since a disappointing first season in Arizona, Greinke has stayed off the injured list, thrown more innings (545) than all but three other MLB pitchers, posted a stellar 3.14 ERA (141 ERA+), and made three straight All-Star teams. Heading into Saturday’s start against the Brewers, in which he gave up two runs on six hits over seven innings while walking one and striking out nine, he ranked among the 2019 National League leaders in innings (128), ERA (2.95), FIP (3.20), walk rate (3.3%), strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.1) and WAR (over 3.0, according to both the Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs versions).

There are any number of pitching-needy contenders out there whom Greinke would help, but of course, it’s not that simple.

For one thing, the D-backs are contenders themselves in a chaotic NL Wild Card picture, entering play Saturday a game out of a playoff spot -- but with a +71 run differential that ranks just ahead of the Cubs as the NL’s second best. After trading Paul Goldschmidt and losing Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency in the offseason, would Arizona be willing to ship off Greinke as well, especially if it remains in the race over the next 10 days? Perhaps not.

Then there is the contract. Greinke is in the midst of a six-year, $206.5 million deal that goes through the 2021 season. However, there is $62.5 million in deferred money that will be paid in annual installments of $12.5 million from 2022 through ‘26. So even though his “salary” for this season is $31.5 million, roughly a third of that is deferred, and he’s actually taking home $21 million for 2019. Therefore, Greinke is owed the prorated portion of his $21 million salary for 2019, as well as what’s left of the final two years of the deal, which comes out to $112.5 million (including deferred payments) when you also include two $3 million bonus payments he is still owed, as well as a $2 million trade bonus.

In other words, Greinke is still owed a significant chunk of change. The contract also gives him the right to block a trade to 15 teams. While the D-backs reportedly would be willing to eat some of Greinke’s contract in a trade, according to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, that factor complicates things considerably, especially if Greinke prefers to remain in the desert.

But none of that necessarily precludes a trade, and Greinke’s production and demonstrated ability to adapt and thrive could be enough for some team to pounce if the opportunity arises. So with that in mind, here are seven teams that would make sense as destinations.

1) Atlanta Braves: They are not one of the 15 teams to which Greinke can block a trade, according to a list originally reported by Zach Buchanan of The Athletic this past November. The NL East leaders already made one move to strengthen their rotation, with the midseason signing of Dallas Keuchel, who has been solid thus far. But Braves starters as a group still rank in the bottom half of the NL in ERA and FIP, and own the lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio, with Mike Foltynewicz having pitched himself back to Triple-A, Kevin Gausman struggling, and Max Fried currently on the IL. Greinke could team with Keuchel and rookie Mike Soroka atop the rotation as Atlanta tries to win a postseason series for the first time since 2001.

2) Philadelphia Phillies: They are on Greinke’s reported list, but these tend to be put together strategically, and with an eye toward gaining leverage, rather than shutting down the possibility of a trade. And in fact, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reported Thursday that Philly has “investigated the possibility” of a Greinke deal. While the club might have to make some extra concessions to persuade Greinke, the need is obvious. The Phillies are clinging to playoff hopes after an offseason of heavy investment and are desperate enough to patch their rotation to take a shot on Drew Smyly, who posted an 8.42 ERA for Texas earlier this season.

3) Houston Astros: Remember the last time they made a deal for an expensive future-Hall-of-Fame pitcher? That worked out just fine. It would be a lot to expect Greinke to live up to Justin Verlander’s championship-winning example, but it also would be an interesting pairing of an intelligent pitcher with an organization that has proven adept at getting the most from its arms. Houston, which is not on Greinke’s list, suddenly is feeling some heat from Oakland in the AL West. The rotation is looking thin behind the dynamic duo of Verlander and Gerrit Cole, who also happens to be a free agent at the end of the season.

4) Milwaukee Brewers: The two parties have some history. Milwaukee acquired Greinke from Kansas City in December 2010, and he helped pitch them into the postseason the following year before being sent on to the Angels in July 2012. In the present, the Brewers are not on Greinke’s no-trade list, are in both the NL Central and Wild Card races, and have a rotation ERA of over 4.50. The Brew Crew has made bold moves in the past -- see the acquisitions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich -- so why not a Greinke repeat?

5) St. Louis Cardinals: Trying to snap a three-season playoff drought, the Cardinals are hanging around in the NL race, but without much consistent production from their starters. Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha are in the bullpen, while Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have been unable to match their 2018 success. The St. Louis rotation ranks near the bottom of the NL in strikeout rate, walk rate and FIP, and Greinke could provide a stabilizing force while reuniting with Goldschmidt.

6) Texas Rangers: There has been talk of them selling, especially with a recent skid shrinking their playoff odds. But instead of trading away a valuable pitcher such as Mike Minor, what if the Rangers traded for one in Greinke? While Minor and Lance Lynn have been terrific additions over the past two offseasons, the rest of the Texas starters have an ERA over 7.00 this year. Greinke would provide an immediate and significant upgrade, and even if that doesn’t yield a postseason appearance this October, he can help headline the opening of the club’s new ballpark next spring.

7) Minnesota Twins: They have been a great story in 2019, but their division lead has shrunk considerably over a red-hot Cleveland club. The Twins have pounded the ball all season, and while their starters have been solid, they still could benefit from another top-of-the-rotation arm. Minnesota also has used its top five for all but five starts, good fortune that won’t necessarily last down the stretch. While the Twins would seem like a long-shot for Greinke, especially since they are on the no-trade list, there’s no doubt their potential postseason rotation would look a lot stronger with him in it.