Will Darvish and Musgrove return this season?

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Joe Musgrove makes it no secret how badly he wants to pitch again this year. Yu Darvish -- who landed on the IL on Monday with right elbow inflammation -- apparently feels the same way. After the Padres’ 4-1 victory over the Cardinals, Darvish declared his intention to return this season.

But the reality of their situation is this: It’s not up to Darvish and Musgrove whether they return in September. It’s up to their teammates.

The Padres’ season is teetering. They sit well outside of the Wild Card picture, with two of their best starting pitchers on the sidelines. If they can’t win enough games to work their way back into the playoff picture over the next couple of weeks … is it even worth pushing Darvish and/or Musgrove toward a return?

To be clear: That decision doesn’t need to be made today. The Padres don’t yet have full details on Darvish’s injury, as they await test results on his ailing elbow. Musgrove, meanwhile, is only playing catch and isn’t slated to begin ramping up his throwing program until Sept. 8, at the earliest.

“And then, depending on where we're at, we can either slow it down or speed it up,” Musgrove said.

Excuse Musgrove’s overeager phrasing. The Padres almost certainly aren’t going to “speed it up” with his recovery from a shoulder capsule injury. But they certainly might slow it down if they aren’t in the playoff picture come mid-September.

And, again, it’s going to be difficult to get there while Darvish and Musgrove are on the sideline.

“Down the stretch is where you’re counted on the most,” said Musgrove. “It's extremely frustrating not being able to do anything about it, watching these playoff hopes disappear by the day. So that's been frustrating. But it's part of it. I do everything I can to stay on the field and be healthy.”

Said Darvish: “I feel bad, obviously. My responsibility here is to pitch for the team and to contribute to the team’s winning. So it is disappointing.”

Both Musgrove and Darvish have proven extremely durable. It’s part of the reason the Padres recently gave both long-term extensions. But those extensions mean Musgrove is in San Diego through 2027 and Darvish through ’28. As badly as the Padres would like to have them in the rotation come mid-September, their long-term health is paramount.

The worst-case scenario is a short-sighted decision that exacerbates an injury, causing damage that lingers beyond the 2023 season. The Padres are well aware of that, though they don’t see any reason to shut down Darvish or Musgrove just yet.

They might as well wait to get further information on the extent of Darvish’s injury and let Musgrove play catch for another 10 days or so before sending him to for imaging to assess whether the capsule has healed.

At that point, the Padres can make a decision.

Then again, if they don’t start gaining serious ground in the Wild Card race, that decision might be made for them.