How important is it to be in 1st entering September?

September is finally here. By the time this month is over, we’ll know who’s headed to the playoffs and who will be watching from home. We’ve been keeping track all year of what it means to hold a division lead entering any month, and there’s no question that it’s of more importance now than ever.

If your team isn’t leading now but still has postseason aspirations, they’d better figure it out soon or they'll be vying for a Wild Card spot.

Let’s take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division entering September and evaluate where we’re at with some other trends, too, as we enter the regular season’s final month.

What it means to be in first place (or not be there)

Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league after the ‘95 campaign was limited to 144 games due to the players’ strike that began in 1994 -- 108 of 138 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Sept. 1. That’s 78% of division winners.

There has not been a season since 1996 when none of the division leaders entering September went on to win their divisions that year. In other words, history tells us that most of the six current leaders -- the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers -- will win the division. But not necessarily all of them.

What about leading the Wild Card? In the multiple Wild Card era (since 2012), there has been just one season when each team in Wild Card position entering Sept. 1 found itself still in the Wild Card Game when the season ended. That was in 2017, when the Yankees, Twins, D-backs and Rockies did so.

From the comeback perspective, the Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the largest division lead entering September for a team that did not win that division is 7 ½ games by the 1995 Angels, who missed out on the playoffs entirely when the Yankees won that year’s Wild Card. The team that engineered that divisional comeback was the Mariners.

Largest division lead entering September, did not win division (Since 1969)
1995 Angels: 7 ½
1978 Red Sox: 6 ½
2006 Tigers: 4 ½
1969 Cubs: 4 ½

For the Wild Card, the largest lead entering September for a team to not win that spot was 8 ½, by the 2011 Braves, according to Elias. The Cardinals came back from that deficit to win the Wild Card, and ended up winning it all, too.

Looking ahead to the World Series

Since 1996, 15 of the 23 World Series winners led their divisions entering September, including each of the last four. The most recent World Series winner without at least a share of first place in its division entering September was the 2014 Giants, who trailed the Dodgers by two games entering September and went on to make the playoffs via the Wild Card.

Speaking of the World Series, the Dodgers are still searching for their first championship since 1988. This year, they’re leading the NL West by 18 games entering September. Does that portend a World Series victory?

Well, there have been nine other teams in the divisional era to lead by at least 17 games entering September according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Of those, three won the World Series: the 1998 Yankees, 1986 Mets and 1975 Reds. Of the rest, two made it to the World Series and lost -- the 1995 Indians and 1980 Royals -- while the others did not even make it that far.

Largest lead entering September, Divisional Era (Since 1969)
1995 Indians: 21 ½ games
1999 Indians: 20 games
1980 Royals: 20 games
1986 Mets: 19 games
1975 Reds: 18 ½ games
1998 Yankees: 18 games
2019 Dodgers: 17 games
2008 Angels: 17 games
2002 Braves: 17 games
2001 Mariners: 17 games

1998 Yankees, 1986 Mets & 1975 Reds won World Series

What about just looking at a team’s record? No team has ever been below .500 entering September and gone on to win the World Series. The lowest winning percentage entering the month for a team to eventually win the World Series was .523, by the 1987 Twins.

Lowest win pct. entering September, won World Series
1987 Twins: .523
2011 Cardinals: .529
1980 Phillies: .531
2003 Marlins: .537
2006 Cardinals: .538

The World Series may be out of reach, based on past results, for any team at or below .500, but there have been six teams to make the postseason after being at or below .500 entering September. The most recent was the 2008 Dodgers, who were 67-70 (.489) entering September, but went on to win the NL West by two games.

Lowest win pct. entering September, made playoffs
1981 Royals: .423
1973 Mets: .466
2008 Dodgers: .489
1995 Yankees: .491
2005 Padres: .500
1984 Royals: .500

Home run trends

On Friday, Nicholas Castellanos’ first home run in a two-homer effort at Wrigley Field was the 1,143rd home run of the calendar month. That broke the record -- set in June -- for the most home runs in a month in history. Entering 2019, the single-month record was 1,119 in August 2017. But then there were 1,135 in May, to set the record, and then 1,142 in June, which stood until August of this year.

We’ve seen 1,000 or more home runs in each complete calendar month this season -- that’s five months with 1,000 or more home runs. That’s the most 1,000-homer months in a season in Major League history, breaking a tie at four with the 2017 season.

Through August, there have been more than 5,700 home runs hit across the Majors. This season is already top three in terms of total home runs for a season, and we’re well on pace to breaking the record of 6,105 from 2017.