Inbox: Who is the next Michael Harris II?

I've just returned from the first week of the Arizona Fall League season, and it was glorious. I can't wait to get back for the Fall Stars Game and the final week. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that the majority of the questions in this week's Pipeline Inbox are AFL-related ...

Who is next year's Michael Harris? -- @MinorLeagueFun

Harris was in High-A and the bottom half of our Top 100 Prospects list a year ago, and now he's the heavy favorite to be named National League Rookie of the Year. I see a lot of parallels between him and Evan Carter of the Rangers.

A surprise second-round pick in the 2020 Draft as a Tennessee high schooler, Carter is a year younger than Harris at the same stage of their careers. He spent most of 2022 in High-A, batting .287/.388/.476 with 39 extra-base hits and 26 steals in 100 games, before tearing up Double-A for the final week of the season. He has an extremely advanced approach for his age and the chance for solid or better tools across the board.

Texas isn't a contender like Atlanta is, so Carter might not get to the big leagues in 2022. But with his polish and tools, I bet he'll be able to handle the jump.

With the way Jordan Walker has played defensively so far, do you believe the outfield will be his permanent position or will be go back to playing in the infield? -- @StevieDAles97

Assuming that nine-time Gold Glover Nolan Arenado doesn't opt out of a contract that runs through 2027, Walker will be a full-time outfielder. Even if Arenado weren't around to block him, Walker likely was destined to move from third base to the outfield anyway. It doesn't matter, because his massive power and his hitting ability will allow him to profile well offensively at any position.

Though he's a better athlete than most players his size, Walker is also 6-foot-5 and bigger than most at third base, where he has committed 40 errors in 146 games. The 2020 first-rounder from a Georgia high school probably will slow down a bit as he gets older and even when he was an amateur, many scouts thought he was better suited for an outfield corner. His arm is a weapon in right field, where he notched nine assists in 25 Double-A games at the end of this season and recorded a 99.5 mph throw on Monday.

Incidentally, both Carter and Walker were part of Duke's 2020 recruiting class. They'd be juniors now -- and potential No. 1 overall picks next July -- if they had spurned seven-figure bonuses and joined the Blue Devils.

What's your ceiling on Padres' Jackson Merrill? Think he can stick at SS? Better for 2B or CF? -- @dvmin98

Based on a week of watching Merrill in the AFL, he looks like a future All-Star to me. He's batting .393 for the Peoria Javelinas after hitting .320/.377/.470 in 86 games in his first two pro seasons. With his quick left-handed swing, a mature approach and developing strength, he should hit for average and power.

Merrill has solid arm strength and soft hands and projects as an average shortstop in the Majors. That said, he's going to lose some quickness as he fills out his 6-foot-3 frame and while he might be a capable defender at short, a big league club likely will want someone with more range. It's more likely that he'll wind up at second or third base.

How did Addison Barger's breakout 2022 season change his prospect outlook? Is he a possible Top 100 guy this offseason? How is his defense? -- Brendon K., Vancouver, B.C.

Barger's stock is soaring after he hit .308/.378/.555 with 26 homers in 124 games while rising from High-A to Triple-A at age 22. He had begun to hit for power last season in Single-A but didn't rank on anyone's Blue Jays prospect list entering this year. He homered twice on the third day of the Fall League season.

A sixth-round pick as a Florida prepster in 2018, Barger has plus raw power and taps into it by regularly driving balls in the air to his pull side, though he may have to tighten his strike zone to handle more advanced pitching. He has well above-average arm strength but fringy speed, so he fits better at third base than at shortstop or second base. I'm not ready to put him on the Top 100 Prospects list, though he'll enter the discussion if he builds off this momentum in 2023.

We tackled this question on the latest Pipeline Podcast, which has much more Fall League talk as well as some discussion of rookies in the playoffs. Give it a listen!